The most important part of purchasing a home is closing day, when the official transfer of ownership takes place. If you are prepared, it should go smoothly. However, one missing document means a failed or postponed closing, so review your closing documents ahead of time. Closing day will involve executing the paperwork, paying any required fees, and ultimately getting the keys to your new home. Plan on having your ID, evidence of homeowner’s insurance and your closing cost funds. If you are not sure about anything, ask your agent or make a call to the closing office.
There are also a few things you should make sure to do ahead of time that don’t involve bringing a physical object. Confirm the closing fees before you arrive, and have any questions for your lender answered. Prior to the closing meeting, review the seller’s responsibilities and make sure they have been satisfied. Your agent can provide you with the final completion documentation for any seller obligations. If you pay attention to these details and all is in order, you should be able to walk away with keys in hand.
California has always been an expensive place to live, and it’s only getting more and more expensive. The median home price is about 2.5 times higher than the national average, and 11 times the median income. Of course, prices are trending upwards across the nation. Appreciation over time is normal, and has accelerated in the wake of the 2020 pandemic. But these things affect everyone — so why is California specifically so much more expensive?
It’s not just as simple as having higher desirability, although that is certainly the case. The primary issue is a lack of affordable housing. There are multiple reasons for this. California may be the third largest state by area, but it also has the highest population of any state. It’s not among the densest, but it is rather sprawling. There’s just not a lot of open land to build on, particularly land that fits all the various zoning restrictions that are in dire need of updating. However, updating zoning laws is getting pushback from residents. Construction costs are also up. While construction companies typically would rather build multifamily residences, they have to build what’s in demand — which is mainly single-family residences.
In addition, because purchasing a home is so expensive, landlords are better served continuing to rent out their homes and units rather than attempting to sell, even though selling would decrease home prices. This is exacerbated by property tax laws in California. Prop 13 limits the rate at which property taxes can increase until a property exchanges ownership. Therefore, people who have owned a home for a long time can pay very little in property taxes, reducing the likelihood of any sort of market activity.
Prospective homebuyers are prone to backing out immediately if the home inspection uncovers mold. This is usually a hasty response. Some level of mold is, in fact, quite common in homes. Of course, that doesn’t mean you should simply ignore it, but there’s also no need to panic.
Feel free to ask the inspector questions about the mold they found. You’ll want to know how severe the issue is and what the root cause of it is. If the issue is minor, you may even be able to fix it yourself — however, you’ll want to make sure of that beforehand, since mold can hide in places that aren’t visible.
Also, keep in mind that the inspector is neither a mold testing service nor a mold removal service. And yes, these are different things — while a mold removal service often will test for mold, there’s a potential conflict of interest if the same company is both testing for and removing it. If you think you’ll need professionals to deal with the problem, do your research. You’ll also want to know whether your homeowner’s insurance covers mold removal and associated repairs, as policies can differ.
Improving your home can be an exciting yet daunting task. To help you navigate your home improvements smoothly, here are six things not to do when giving your house a makeover.
Don’t plant trees too close to your home. It might seem like a great idea to add some greenery, but planting trees too close to your home can lead to root damage to your foundations and plumbing. Plant trees at a safe distance to avoid future headaches. A good landscaper or garden center employee should be able to help you find the best plants for your lot.
Don’t clean windows on a sunny day. Cleaning windows when the sun is shining directly on them can cause the cleaner to dry too quickly, leaving streaks. Choose a cloudy day to get a spotless, streak-free finish.
Don’t ignore regulations. Skipping the necessary permits might save time initially but can lead to major issues down the road, including fines and even the nightmare of having to undo your work. Always check local regulations, get the proper permits, and keep them for your records.
Don’t use the wrong tools. Although not investing in fancy tools might save money, using the wrong tools for a job can lead to poor results and potential injury. Make sure you have the right tools or hire a professional if needed.
Don’t forget to protect your furniture. There’s nothing worse than eyeing up a beautifully renovated room only to find your couch ruined by dust, debris, and flying paint. Cover your furniture with sheeting or move it to another room to keep it safe. Resist the urge to move your drop cloths and sheets before everything has dried, as you could smudge and track paint around by mistake once you think you have the job done!
There isn’t necessarily an ideal time to sell your home, but there are definitely seasonal trends. Home sales are generally highest in spring and lowest in winter. There are several reasons for this, but there are also two seasons that are neither spring nor winter — summer and fall — and they also have advantages and disadvantages. So, why might you choose fall?
From a pragmatic standpoint, there isn’t a lot of competition in the fall, but there’s still some demand. Many sellers wait until spring, assuming that because that’s when most people buy, it’s the ideal time to sell. However, this results in an abundance of available properties, making it harder for any single home to stand out. In contrast, fall’s quieter marketplace means your home has a better chance of catching buyers’ attention. At the same time, it’s not winter, when many buyers aren’t looking to buy at all. Of course, there’s less of a difference in California where much of the state doesn’t have freezing temperatures. This isn’t limited to buyers and sellers, either — the entire industry runs at a more comfortable pace. Lenders, real estate agents, lawyers, surveyors and appraisers all tend to have less work during the fall, meaning the process can happen much quicker and more smoothly than in the busy spring and summer months.
Secondly, the cozy ambiance of fall can really enhance your home’s appeal. First impressions are important, and many people perceive fall to have a natural beauty, with its colorful leaves. Typical fall decorations, such as pumpkins and scented candles, can also feel warm and inviting. Moreover, cooler temperatures make house hunting more pleasant, encouraging potential buyers to attend open houses and viewings — though in California, this is more typical of the latter half of fall, as heat waves are not uncommon in September. All of these elements can create a strong emotional connection for potential buyers.
Median prices for real estate around the Los Angeles South Bay have risen over 40% since 2019, the year before the corona-virus pandemic. Comparing the median prices and sales activity for the first half of 2024 shows increases approaching 50% for the five year period in all areas across the South Bay.
Over the same time period, sales volume has plummeted by 22%, falling from 4,022 in 2019 to 3,149 in 2024. The Beach cities have been particularly hard hit with a 34% drop in the number of homes sold during the first six months of the year.
Looking at 2024 versus 2023 shows a similar pattern with median prices up nearly 10% from the first half of last year. The Beach area showed the lowest increases, coming in at 5% above the 2023 median.
Sales volume was off by 2% across the area with the only positive being the Beach at a mere 1% above 2023 numbers. As the 2024 year has progressed, the number of sales has declined in total. Simultaneously, more and more parts of the South Bay have fallen into negative growth.
As of the end of June, 2024 sales figures for all areas were negative in comparison to June of 2023. While the number of homes sold has consistently declined through the first half of the year, median prices have been equally persistent at increasing over last year. Most experts are attributing the increasing prices and decreasing sales to the shift from an ultra-low mortgage interest rate during the pandemic, to a comparatively high rate currently.
When rates were at the lowest, many homeowners took advantage of the opportunity to refinance at the incredible rates. Those folks are now in a position where they would incur a painful increase in monthly living costs if they were to move. That has resulted in about a 40% reduction in the number of homes typically available on the Multiple Listing Services (MLSs).
At the same time, the increased mortgage interest rates have pushed a significant number of potential sellers out of the market because they no longer qualify for the loan they would need to trade up to a larger or newer home. That reduced the available inventory of resale homes even further and became another contributing factor to the bidding wars among the few buyers still in the market.
Beach: Down 18% in Sales May to June
Monthly sales volume fell from 110 units in May to 90 homes in June, for an 18% drop. Median price jumped 10% in one month to end at $1,917,500.
Year over year, the number of homes sold declined from 124 in June of last year to 90 this year for a loss of 27%. Median price for the Beach climbed 11% over the year.
Year to date for the first half of 2024 versus the first six months of 2023 shows a modest increase of 1% in sales volume along with a increase of 5% in median price.
Harbor: June Median Price Off by 6%
The Harbor area was the outlier for June. While month over month sales collapsed and pricing jumped for the other three areas, Harbor sales of 342 homes boosted sales by 19%, coming in well above the 288 homes sold in May. Meanwhile, median price went the other direction, dropping from $848K in May to $799,900 in June, for a decline of 6%.
Year over year statistics went the opposite direction, following the rest of the South Bay. Sales volume fell by 3%, dropping from 124 in 2023 to 90 in June of this year. Meanwhile the median price was up 4% for the year, rising from $772,000 last June to nearly $800,000 this year.
The first six months of 2024 brought a year to date sales drop of 4%. The median price in the same period climbed 9%.
Short term changes, as from month to month, have been unpredictable since the pandemic. Looking at the longer term, there is consistency in the declining sales volume and increasing median price. With 2024 a presidential election year, it will be interesting to see how long this direction holds.
Hill: Year Over Year Sales Fell 24%
With a reputation for wildly shifting statistics, the Palos Verdes Peninsula came in with relatively modest decline of 9% from May sales. Similarly, the increase in median price was very tempered at only 3%.
The sales volume for same month last year was anything but mild. June of 2023 reported 79 homes sold versus 60 homes in June of 2024. That’s a 24% drop in volume from last year. While a fourth of the 2023 sales disappeared, the median price eked out a 1% increase, going from $2,000,000 last June to $2,912,500 in June of 2024.
In what is becoming a familiar trend, the year to date sales volume is down 2%, and the median price for the first six months of the year is up 7%.
Inland: June 2024 Sales Drop 24% From 2023
The Inland area showed the smallest month to month change of the South Bay. The 4% drop in sales volume from 128 homes sold in May to 123 in June was minor. Likewise the 1% increase in median price from $945,000 to $955,000.
Like the Hill, the Inland area had a radical drop in sales from June of 2023 to June of 2024. Falling from 161 homes sold last June to 123 sold this June resulted in a 24% drop in transactions. Median price in the same period rose 9%, from $875,000 to $955,000.
Interestingly, there has been no statistically significant change in the sales volume for the first six months of the 2023 and 2024 years. It actually increased by three units from 669 homes sold in 2023 to 672 homes sold in the first half of 2024. For the same time periods, the median price climbed by 6%.
Beach=Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach, El Segundo Harbor=Carson, Long Beach, San Pedro, Wilmington, Harbor City PV Hill=Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates Inland=Torrance, Lomita, Gardena
There are a significant number of factors that could potentially affect what your home is worth. It can sometimes be hard to pinpoint exactly how much buyers are likely to be willing to pay, even for experts. This is especially true in a changing economic climate. However, there are a few factors that can give a pretty good idea of a home’s value.
The first thing an agent will look at to determine a home’s value is recent sales of similar properties in the same or a similar area. This is called a comparative market analysis (CMA), and is the primary method of predicting home values. Unless the economy is particularly unstable, a home similar to yours in a similar area that sold recently probably sold for approximately as much as your home is worth. Looking at currently listed properties can help, but it’s looking at actual sales that is more valuable, because you know at least one buyer definitely was willing to pay that much, otherwise the sale would not have happened.
The reason CMAs look at specifically the same or similar areas is that prices vary extremely widely by neighborhood. Schools, shopping centers, public transportation and recreational facilities can significantly enhance a home’s desirability. On the other hand, high crime rates or noise pollution may detract from a property’s appeal. And it’s important to note that a similar area doesn’t necessarily mean a nearby area. Neighboring communities could be vastly different from one another, but there could be another neighborhood a bit farther away that has more features in common.
But the research isn’t done as soon as a CMA is complete. It may be difficult to find exact matches for your property, particularly when the market is slow. Granted, if you live in tract housing, this can be slightly easier — but only if other properties in the same tract have been sold recently. To combat this, agents adjust the value to account for differences between the comparative properties and your own property. This can include age of the property, condition, and upgrades, as well as property size, lot size, and features.
Much of the consideration for renting over buying comes from the lower initial cost. However, with quickly rising rents and increasing access to financial assistance especially for first-time homebuyers, that gap is closing somewhat. AB 12, which went into effect at the beginning of July, seeks to lessen the upfront cost burden on renters.
Under AB 12, no landlord can charge a security deposit greater than two months’ rent, and in some cases, it’s limited to one month’s rent. The one month limit applies to landlords who own either more than two rental properties or more than four units, as well as when the tenant is a military service member. In all other cases, the limit is two months. Unlike prior law, whether the unit is furnished or not is not taken into account.
What remains to be seen is how easily this law can be enforced, particularly whether landlords adhere to the one month or two month limit. Previously, the difference was whether the unit was furnished or not, something that could be easily confirmed or denied. However, landlords are under no obligation to reveal to tenants how many properties or units they own in total. Moreover, since a landlord can refer to either a person or a limited liability corporation, it’s possible to put properties managed by the same landlord under different names. There may be protections in place for tenants who discover a landlord attempting to sneak by this rule, but they may have a hard time proving it.
The short answer is yes, you can. This would be called a backup offer. However, it may not be worth your time, unless you’re very invested in the property. To understand why, let’s take a look at what a pending sale actually means, and what making an offer on a pending sale looks like.
When a property has the “sale pending” status, what it means is that the seller has accepted an offer, but the sale hasn’t yet been finalized. There are potentially several steps before a sale can be finalized, which can include contingencies, inspections, appraisals, and negotiations. Inspections and appraisals always take time, but may not be required. Not all sales have contingencies, but they come in multiple forms, some of which could take a long time — such as waiting for the sale of another property to close.
So while you could submit an offer on a pending property, not even the seller can know whether they will be able to accept it for a potentially extended period of time. If the pending sale falls through, they may accept or reject it, or want to negotiate further. Even if all of that works out, the property will then be pending with your offer. If you’re on any sort of time constraint, it’s probably not worth it. Furthermore, most pending sales don’t fall through, and half the potential reasons it could may reveal major issues with the property that might result in you not wanting it anymore.
Could it be that after several years of insanely steep ups and downs in the real estate market, we’re finally starting to see normal sales levels and prices? One could draw that conclusion after looking at the year to date statistics for the first four months of 2024 compared to last year. Instead of crazy double digit increases and decreases the rate of change has slowed to single digits almost everywhere.
The Beach cities have been the exception with a 19% growth in the number of homes sold through April compared to 2023. That compares to an average across the South Bay of 4% growth. That’s a good sign, but sales are still off by about 20% compared to the same period in 2019, the last year of “normal business” prior to the economic turmoil of the pandemic.
Median pricing continues to escalate also, though at a much reduced pace. For the first four months of 2024, year to date median prices increased in the 5%-9% range. This is a considerable drop from price jumps of as much as 29% seen just a few months ago.
Looking back at the historical data shows that when the pandemic first hit median prices were operating on a relatively normal upward path. Monthly gains were modest fractions of a percent. Then the Federal Reserve slashed the interest rates to keep the economy moving, and the median price shot through the ceiling with monthly increases frequently topping 30%.
August of 2022 saw a price peak and median prices have been falling since. There’s a lot of resistance on the part of sellers, of course. But the sales volume remains low by historical standards, and buyers are demanding price cuts to compensate for the higher mortgage interest rates, if nothing else.
Expect to see mixed results over the coming months as prices and interest rates ebb and flow around a fluctuating political scene, both nationally and internationally.
Beach:
Monthly sales volume took an insane 55% leap at the Beach in April, after having fallen 1% in March. Seeing the median price plummet by 13% for the same period helps to explain the shift. It’s an isolated example of the push and pull of prices and interest rates. Buyers will remain constrained in their ability to purchase, either by rates, or by artificially inflated prices, until sellers reach a “need to move” point where they are willing to reduce asking prices.
Year over year sales show a similar response in the comparison to last April—a 31% growth in number of homes sold against a 1% decline in the median price.
Trends are better demonstrated in the year to date statistics. Looking at the first four months of 2024 and comparing to the same period in 2023 shows the sales volume increased by 19% while the median price increased 5%
Making the same comparison between 2019 and 2024 shows a 32% decline in the number of homes sold this year. Median price is sharply higher by 43%.
Harbor:
The Harbor area appears to be stabilizing ahead of the other South Bay areas. April sales volume declined at the Harbor by 4% versus sales in March, while median prices increased 1%. Smaller monthly movement, especially in price, is essential to reduce inflation and put the real estate economy back on a solid footing. It’s hard to argue that inflation is near 2% annually, while real estate prices are escalating at several times that goal.
Clearly there’s still a ways to go considering the April 2024 volume had zero growth compared to last April, and is still 24% below April of 2019. The median price has a similar issue being up 7% over April 2023, while holding at 44% above April of 2019.
Year to date, 2024 versus 2023, the number of home sales is off by 1% and the median price is up 8%. The elephant in the room is the constantly increasing median price, which is pushing up hard against the Fed’s inflation battle. The price keeps going up because the inventory is exceptionally limited. There were 18% fewer homes sold year to date in 2024 than in 2019. The limited selection compared to the pent up demand pushed the median up some more.
Anecdotally, many pundits point to the extremely low interest rates of the pandemic years as a big driver for the low inventory and bidding wars. Home owners who refinanced to rates well below 5% are reluctant to sell those properties and take up new loans at often double the interest rate. Consequently, homes that would have gone on the market are now artificially being held off the market.
Hill:
As usual, home sales on the Palos Verdes peninsula have been all over the map in recent months. The number of homes sold in April climbed 28% compared to March, when it jumped 39% versus February, when sales dropped 14%. The median price started with 0% change in January and has yo-yoed it’s way through the first four months, ending down 3% in April from March.
While monthly sales statistics are often sporadic on the Hill, comparing April this year to the same month last year, shows a 28% increase in the number of sales and a corresponding 3% increase in the median price.
Year to date numbers for Palos Verdes were more mundane, with the number of sales for the first four months up 5%. In the same time frame, median prices were up by 9%.
Compared to year to date 2019, PV sales volume was down 9% while prices were up 42%.
Inland:
Business in the Inland cities looks very much like business on the Peninsula right now. Month over month sales volume is growing at 8%—that’s positive because the market needs more inventory! At the same time monthly median prices are dropping by 5%—also positive because interest rates are not going back down to the record-breaking levels of the pandemic! Many of the transactions in the Inland area are entry level buyers embarking on their first home purchase. High prices and steep interest rates work against success for both sellers and buyers in that market.
Year over year sales volume increased at 34%, the kind of activity needed to stabilize the local market. Even with that increase in business, the median price pushed upward by 4%, double the Fed target.
Year to date sales volume is up 9% and median price is up 6%.
Wrapping it Up
It’s going to take some juggling to get more sellers onto the marketplace. And it’s going to require coordination with having able buyers there at the same time. Pundits are betting the Fed will engage in “brake-tapping” until after the Federal election. In the months just before the election interest rates will drop enough to encourage sellers to trade up, and allow buyers to qualify for financing. Those steps would enhance the increasing inventory being seen now. Then in the new year the brakes will be applied again to prevent inflation in the spring buying season. Of course, the outcome of the election promises to influence the market under any circumstance.
Beach=Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach, El Segundo Harbor=Carson, Long Beach, San Pedro, Wilmington, Harbor City PV Hill=Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates Inland=Torrance, Lomita, Gardena
When a buyer and an agent enter into an agreement for the agent to represent the buyer in the purchase of a home, that agreement is called a buyer agency agreement. If the agent is not performing per the agreement, the buyer may cancel the agreement by providing written notice to the agent. It is important for the buyer to make sure the right conditions are outlined in the agreement. A buyer agency agreement usually spells out the duties the agent has towards the buyer in finding and closing on a home. The buyer can participate in negotiating the terms of the agreement.
Buyer agency agreements have typical term lengths of 90 days but can be negotiated for any length. A buyer can specify the kind of property being sought so the agent keeps on track during their search. The terms of the agent responsibilities should also include negotiating on behalf of the buyer and making sure the sales transaction successfully closes.
Most buyers never consider purchasing a property that isn’t in a livable condition. And in many cases, there wouldn’t be much benefit to it, since they are planning to live there. But if you think of the purchase as an investment in your future, there could be advantages — that’s why most people who do purchase fixer-uppers are investors.
It should come as no surprise that fixer-uppers tend to cost less than move-in ready homes of a similar size, lot area, and location. But this isn’t the correct way to look at the investment. What it also means is that you can find properties in need of fixing with a larger lot or better location than a move-in ready home for the same price. Furthermore, the property continues to yield a return on investment as you upgrade, repair, and remodel. You end up with a property that has equal or potentially higher value than similar properties, while paying a fraction of the cost and building equity the entire time. It also might drive up the area’s desirability, further increasing property values overall, including your own.
Financial benefits aren’t the only reason to buy a fixer-upper. Though you won’t get as much freedom as with buying an empty plot of land, fixer-uppers still have a lot of flexibility in what sort of changes you can make. Even major additions and remodels can be done without needing to worry about building an entirely new foundation. If you have the means and the imagination, it’s not too far off from being a newly designed and built home with a much lower initial investment cost. Even if you don’t make too many or too significant of changes, it can be a learning experience if it’s not something you’ve done before — particularly if you choose to do some DIY repairs.
It’s not uncommon to think of gated community homes as mere status statements. They’re more expensive and more exclusive, both of which sound like they’re tailored toward rich people who want to flaunt their wealth. But there are actually valid reasons that gated communities tend to be more expensive. You don’t have to want to flaunt it to want to live there.
Obviously, you do need to have the money. But if you do, their high price also makes them sound investments in the future. Moreover, the extra money you spend isn’t wasted if you don’t end up selling. Gated communities automatically come with enhanced security measures, amenities, and routine maintenance. Security and amenities are high-value features that you’d need to pay extra for anyway to get elsewhere, while routine maintenance can both save money on repairs and ensure that property values don’t decline due to deferred maintenance. Another thing gated communities offer that doesn’t necessarily have a price tag, but tends to be something people value, is a sense of community while simultaneously retaining privacy.
If you’re planning to sell your home, the ideal result is to get as much from the sale as you can. This leads sellers to look for any and all features or qualities that could potentially raise the price. But the fact of the matter is that the market sets home values, not individual sellers. There are a few common mistakes sellers make that lead them to list their homes at overpriced values, which doesn’t benefit them in terms of actually getting the sale to happen.
Sometimes sellers even purposefully list their home above market value. Usually, they are thinking they can start high and drop the price if no one is buying. However, all this does is reduce overall interest and cause the sale to take longer. If the price is right to start with, multiple people will be interested and might be forced to offer over asking to compete with other prospective buyers. The other reason sellers sometimes purposefully list above market value is that they need to reach a certain price to gain profit from the sale. There’s no point to this — either the home won’t get sold at all, or the seller will be forced to drop the price anyway and take a loss.
Of course, the seller is not always intentionally overvaluing their home. You might think that the value of a home includes both its intrinsic and extrinsic value. While this is technically true, extrinsic value is highly subjective. Don’t attempt to raise the price simply because you love the paint color you chose or you have good memories living there. If those feel like a significant portion of the home’s value to you, you probably don’t actually want to move. Of course, external factors may mean you have to sell — in that case, just remember to hold your emotions at bay. But what if you actually did make tangible improvements to the home? Well, that’s great, but not all improvements have a great return on investment. Keep in mind that it’s entirely possible you aren’t making a profit from every single upgrade you made.
In the first quarter of 2021 buyers and sellers were taking advantage of the artificially low interest rates. Sales were robust and the demand pushed prices up along with the increase in sales volume. By first quarter 2022 sales volume was waning, but sellers were still attached to the higher prices so we saw sales dropping off dramatically. The first three months of 2023 gave us even deeper cuts in the number of South Bay homes sold and brought some corresponding declines in median prices. Today, looking at the South Bay market for the first quarter of 2024, prices are still “sticky” with sellers hoping to hang onto the gains from the Covid years.
It’s not working real well. January gave sellers hope with a strong growth in sales volume and modest increases in median price. February showed returning median price increases and buyers backing off again in response. March is back to the drawing boards as buyers have balked at the price increases in the face of continuing elevated interest rates.
This is coupled with news trickling out of the Federal Reserve Board about how mortgage interest rates are probably not going to see the three rate decreases predicted at the beginning of the year. The latest announcement confirmed that if rate decreases come at all, it won’t be until late in the year and it won’t be significant.
To gain perspective on the impact to the real estate market, it must be noted that the number of South Bay homes sold during the first quarter of 2024 is nearly identical to last year, and is still 19% lower than the first quarter of 2019, the last year of normal business before the pandemic. At the same time the median price of those homes is up almost 10% over last year and is 40% higher than it was in 2019.
Somehow a 40% increase in cost within five years, with a negative demand, seems to be a violation of general economic principles. It appears the post-pandemic adjustment back to normality has digressed somewhere along the path. Of course, all this has been further impacted by the fact 2024 is a presidential election year, and simultaneously the world is in extreme turmoil both economically and physically.
Month by month performance has been unusually erratic for quite some time. So far this year the comparison of this month to the same month last year is the most stable view of the real estate market. According to that view, the number of homes sold has gradually slid into negative territory. January kicked off the year with a blanket increase in the sales volume. February flipped that showing for about half the South Bay. which slid below the sales of last February. March has furthered that negative sales volume to all areas of the South Bay.
Median prices are managing to stay above those of 2023. With sales down across the area and mortgage interest rates stubbornly increasing, that may be changing soon.
Beach: Home Sales Erratic
The Beach cities truly exemplified the erratic nature of month over month statistics during the first quarter. Compared to the prior month, sales in January were down 46%, in February up 48% and in March down 1%. Using the same metrics, monthly median prices were up 13%, down 1% and up 13%.
Looking at the same three months in a year over year method, the statistical movement is much less dramatic. Compared to the same month last year, January sales volume was up 30%, February up 33% and in a surprise drop, March was down 8%. By the same token, median prices were up 7%, up 29% and up 16%.
Disconcertingly, it’s been two years since the pandemic ended and the market is still seeing double digit movement monthly in both volume and pricing. This lack of stability results from several different influences on the real estate market. Among them the continued increase in mortgage interest rates, a corresponding relaxation of qualification requirements by lenders, a public perception of good economic conditions and a continued shortage of homes on the market.
Year to date sales volume for homes at the Beach has increased 13% while median prices have risen by 7% over 2023. Compared to 2019, sales are off by 35% with median prices 43% higher.
Harbor: Up, Then Down, Then Up
Month to month activity for the first quarter in the Harbor area has followed an equally irrational pattern to that of the Beach. January saw sales and prices drop by 13% and 4% respectively. Then February brought increases in both numbers, volume going up 8% and the median price by 6%. March came in mixed with sales volume up 16% while the median slipped by 3%.
Annually, homes in the Harbor area started the year on a positive note with 9% growth in number of homes sold and an accompanying 7% growth in median price. February saw sales decline 3% with an increase in median price of 18%. Sales volume continued to fall in March, decreasing by 8%, albeit with a 4% increase in median price.
Year to date for the first quarter shows the number of homes sold declined by 2%, while the median price increased by 10%. Compared to 2019, sales are off by 16% with median prices 43% higher.
Hill: Sales and Prices Up; Sorta
After two months of negative sales volume and falling median prices, home sales on the Hill perked up in March. Volume was up 39% with 50 properties sold and median prices took a 12% jump to $1.982M. As mentioned in the past, properties on the Palos Verdes peninsula, much like those in the Beach cities, represent a smaller segment of the marketplace and often one or two outsize transactions will create a major shift in the statistics.
Of course, that “perkiness” is relative. While the number of homes sold was 39% higher than February, it was still 19% lower than March of 2023 and 25% below March of 2019, the last year prior to the upsets of the corona virus pandemic.
The 19% drop in sales was accompanied by a 14% increase in median price, a contradiction seen around the South Bay and generally across the State. The typically accepted explanation is that many home owners took advantage of the low mortgage interest rates offered during the pandemic. Those people are now unwilling to take on a new mortgage with an interest rate two to three times higher than they are currently paying. This is leaving a much smaller selection of available homes and has created an inventory shortage which encourages competitive bidding among the few buyers active in the market.
The first quarter of the year brought a 3% decline in homes sold on the Hill and an 8% increase in median price. Compared to the first three months of 2019, sales are currently off by 11% and the median is up 36%.
Inland: One Good March
The number of homes sold in the Inland area for March jumped by 33% to 125 closed escrows. Median prices increased a more modest 7% to $925K. Like the Harbor area, there is a comparatively large number homes in the Inland area and they offer a diverse range of prices. As an example, the low sale for this March was $371K while the high was $2.525M. Mathematics is a great tool for analyzing trends in real estate, but if one is planning to buy or sell in this environment, you should call a professional rather than simply applying these statistics.
Compared to the same month last year, March sales volume was down 7%, while the median price was up 11%. Year to date, the sales volume for the Inland area was unchanged, and the median price was up 8%. Similarly, comparing to 2019, sales were down 12% and prices up 40%
As discussed earlier, there’s a tendency for buyer resistance to the combination of higher prices and higher interest rates. Three months into the year, that resistance seems to be growing. Since the most recent Federal Reserve announcement, mortgage interest rates have climbed about .375% (3/8ths of a point). Looking at the statistical trend in conjunction with the increasing interest rate, we anticipate continued slippage in volume and more declines in median price throughout the South Bay.
Beach=Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach, El Segundo Harbor=Carson, Long Beach, San Pedro, Wilmington, Harbor City PV Hill=Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates Inland=Torrance, Lomita, Gardena
For obvious reasons, prospective homebuyers who are expecting to have children, or already have them, might want to move to an area with a highly rated school system. What might not be so obvious is that there are benefits to this even if you aren’t directly impacted by what schools are nearby. Schools affect more than just students; they are a major driving factor in home values.
Neighborhoods with good schools are more desirable, and therefore have higher home values. And because schools don’t typically vanish unless they’re heavily underfunded — which the good schools tend not to be — this is a relatively stable factor in prices. That means homes in these neighborhoods are solid investments, even if you can’t take advantage of the good education.
Conversely, if the school system is not very good, you may think you’re getting a bargain deal with low prices. Unfortunately, your home value probably also isn’t going to go up very much. However, if you are following the trends, you may be able to take advantage of rapidly improving school systems. Maybe prices aren’t high yet, but will be as the schools continue to grow.
Increasing house prices and relatively stagnant wages have led to the need to rethink our strategies regarding housing. Of course, solving the root issue would be preferable — but if that’s not an option, easing the burden is a useful venture. There have been several recent innovations in methods to approach affordable housing.
A couple of them have been around for a while, but not necessarily targeted at affordable housing. These are government subsidies and grants and developer incentives. If you give people money or tax breaks to build or buy affordable housing, it’s going to become easier. Another that you may have heard of is micro-housing. You may dream of a large home, but the truth of the matter is that smaller houses are not only cheaper, but also more cost effective to build. The only reason they weren’t being built before is lack of demand.
There are also some options you may not be aware of, though. These are community land trusts (CLTs) and shared equity models. CLTs attempt to reduce the cost of homeownership by separating land cost from building cost — normally, a house and the land it’s built on are purchased simultaneously, but with CLTs, the land is owned by a trust and only the structure is sold, so it costs less to buy. A shared equity model allows a buyer to purchase only a portion of the ownership of a home, with the share owned increasing as the buyer accrues equity and uses it to purchase a greater share. This is somewhat similar to a loan, but carries less risk, with the downside being that the buyer doesn’t have exclusive legal ownership of the property.
In a normal year, the interest rate for a conventional mortgage loan would be lower than the rate quoted for a “high balance” loan, which would be slightly lower than a “jumbo” mortgage. (Here in Los Angeles jumbo is more common than not.) The theory behind the differing rates is one of risk management. Lenders generally consider larger loans to be more risky, thus jumbo costs more.
Guess what! It’s not a normal year. It’s a Presidential Election Year. In addition to the political strife, our nation is closely involved in a couple of economy-disrupting wars in other parts of the globe.
The end result is jumbo loans with fixed interest rates that are as low or lower than conventional loans. Despite headlines touting strength in the economy, interest rates have increased by approximately .5% since the first of the year. The most recent announcements from the Federal Reserve System are hinting that anticipated rate reductions aren’t happening at all in the first half of 2024, and the number of potential reductions is expected to be less than previously expected.
Last year saw median prices in the South Bay falling below 2022 prices through July. In August of last year price declines began to abate. By December of 2023 prices had started to stabilize. The new year continued that trend with only one negative median price result in January. Improving on that, February showed solid growth in prices across the South Bay. The real estate market seems to be reacting to what is touted as an improving economy.
However, compared to last February, sales volume this February was a mixed bag with overall positive growth of 2% despite declines of 3% in the Harbor area and 14% on the Hill. These weaker sales figures follow a strong growth in the number of homes sold in January versus the same month in 2023.
Recent month to month history has shown that a decline in sales volume is typically followed by a decline in median price. This “tit for tat” resonance indicates a market where buyers are at the edge of their ability to buy and sellers are feeling the resistance. Indeed, following the upward movement of mortgage interest rate activity for the first two months of the year leads to the conclusion sales volume will drop, followed by more substantial price decreases in coming months.
Beach: Sales and Prices SeeSaw
On a month to month basis, the Beach area has seen serious ups and downs in the number of homes sold and in the median sales price. January started with a massive 46% drop in sales from December, then February showed up with a 48% increase in sales volume. By way of contrast, Palos Verdes sales were down 16% and down 14% for the same months. The median price for Beach homes slipped 1% in February versus a 13% increase in January.
February sales volume versus February of 2023 was also steeply higher at 33%, the largest increase of the South Bay areas. At $1.175M the median price was up 29% over the same month last year. This is a somewhat surprising median price increase in light of other annual increases around the South Bay falling in the range of 5-18%.
Looking at year to date for the first two months of 2024, the Beach area had positive sales volume of 32% with a median price increase of 17%.
Harbor: More Up and Down
Responding to the volatility of the economy, the Harbor area flipped from negative numbers in January to positive in February. The number of homes sold was up by 8% over the prior month, while the median price of those homes increased 6%. The largest of the South Bay areas, the Harbor area typically has less variability in both sales and prices than the other areas.
Annual figures, looking at change from one year to the next in the same month, is usually a predictor of long term direction. February home sales in the Harbor area seem to be close to the bottom of market. Volume dropped by 3% from 2023, the smallest annual decline since the end of the pandemic.
At the same time, the median price rose 18% above that of February 2023. It should be noted that the median price in the Harbor last February was exceptionally low at $675K. In contrast, the $795K for this year appears to be on the high side and should be expected to moderate as the year goes on.
Year to date, the number of homes sold has increased by 2% over 2023. The median price has gone up 12%.
Hill: Numbers Continue to Fall
Real estate on the Palos Verdes Peninsula was off more this month than last. Month to month sales volume dropped by 14%. Median price, which was flat last month, has fallen by 1% this month. This kind of back and forth jockeying in price and volume looks jerky in the month to month statistics.
When viewed against the backdrop of annual data one can more readily see the direction. Annually, residential sales dropped by 14%, roughly the average of the past few months. While sales volume was dropping, the annual median price rose a surprising 10%.
Combining January and February for year over year numbers shows the number of homes sold increasing by 11% and the median price increasing by 9%
Inland: A Mixed Bag for Sales and Prices
Like the Beach cities, the Inland area enjoyed a huge surge in the number of homes sold for February, after suffering a large drop in sales January. Volume was up by 40% for the month. Median price dropped 4% after an 11% jump last month. So far this year the market has been very unpredictable.
As mentioned early, the “same month, last year” perspective is starting to level out. Residential sales volume for February of 2024 increased by 6% compared to 2023. The median price was up 5% over for the same period. The annual percentage of change seems almost stable by comparison the the monthly.
Year to date, Inland sales have increased 7% while the median price has declined by 1%. So far in 2024, only the Inland median price has declined from the first two months of last year.
Beach=Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach, El Segundo
Harbor=Carson, Long Beach, San Pedro, Wilmington, Harbor City
PV Hill=Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates
Before purchasing a new home, there are some important details that will help you make your decision. You’ll want to know what you’re paying for, as well as how to get the best deal. Asking the right questions will make the process much smoother for you.
First, make sure you know exactly what it is you’re buying. Is any personal property included in the sale? Is any fixture excluded? A purchase offer should address personal property and any exclusions. Also, if there are any disclosed concerns with the property, you’ll want to know what they are. It may not be worth your while if there are any major concerns. You’ll also want to know what you can expect to be paying in utility costs. After all, utilities are a component of homeownership costs.
If you want the best deal you can get, you should definitely ask your agent for a comparative sales report. This is a report which details recent sales histories of similar properties. Depending on the area, it may be unlikely to find an exact match, but this will give you a rough estimate of the expected price range for a property that you’re considering. This is particularly important if you’re concerned that the property may be overpriced or have some sort of defect. To aid in this, you can also ask how long the property has been on the market. If it has been sitting around longer than average, there could be an issue. Another question you may want to ask is if the sellers have already bought another home. This could give you some insight into the motivations of the sellers, which may help you negotiate.
Across the Los Angeles South Bay the number of homes sold in January was down compared to December—way down. For the same time period median prices are mixed with most sales either flat or down.
Looking at sales volume in January versus January of last year, shows big increases in activity. However, that serves more to show how slow the real estate market was at the beginning of 2023, than how good it is today. Median prices were likewise up for most areas when compared to the same month last year.
From a historical perspective, looking back at 2019, still the most recent “normal” business year for real estate, we see sales volume overall remains 21% below that benchmark. Median prices, which shot up during the pandemic have stubbornly stayed up. As of January, median prices range from 25-30% above the 2% inflation factor the Federal Reserve targets.
The combination of inflated prices and mortgage interest rates testing the 7% level has created a stagnant market place. Typically a presidential election year would bring rosy news about a growing economy and low interest rates. At this point there’s only one month of data, not enough to make any forecasts, but 2024 is off to a slow start.
Beach: Sales Off 46%
Month to month sales volume in the Beach cities collapsed by 46% in January. After back to back increases in the number of homes sold for November and December, the huge drop was unexpected. Juxtaposed against the 13% increase in median price, it demonstrates the current market dynamic.
The only actual buyers are people who have no choice but to move, despite the low inventory and high interest rates. At the same time, most sellers are stalling because they don’t want to be sitting on the market for weeks. And, because most sellers are also buyers, they’re waiting for a better market with more homes available and lower interest rates for their replacement purchase. As a result, the number of available homes listed on the MLS is further depressed.
This has brought about a rare phenomenon, the “off-market” sale. Both buyers and sellers are actively looking for deals that can be consummated without the competitive environment of the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Buyers love the fact there are no bidding wars. Sellers are glad to sell at asking price without endless open houses and dozens of showings. The properties usually end up on the MLS as history, but not as competition. How long this trend will last depends on the economy over the next few months.
The market at the Beach has clearly improved since last year. Sales from January of 2024 have climbed 30% compared to January of 2023. At the same time, median price has moved up 7%. Of course, as mentioned earlier, last January was far from a good market in real estate.
Given the turmoil of recent years, one is compelled to look back at 2019, before the pandemic with it’s rock-bottom interest rates and sky-rocketing prices. Using that metric, January sales this year fell 34% below January of 2019. Median price this January was 43% higher than it was in January of 2019. Clearly “normal” is still a long way off.
Harbor: Sales Off 13%
Month to month statistics from the Harbor area demonstrate a truism. Pointing the way toward stability in the market, many of January’s home sales came with a reduced price. The median price dropped 4%, rather than increasing as it did in the Beach cities. Those price reductions appealed to buyers and the number of transactions increased considerably. Correspondingly, the sales volume only dropped 13% as opposed to a 46% drop at the Beach.
Harbor area sales for January 2024 ended with 9% more transactions than the same month lin 2023 in an unsurprising response to the market collapse of last winter. Also on the positive side, median prices for Harbor area homes increased by 7%.
Pre-pandemic residential sales for January 2024 was mixed in comparison to January of 2019. Sales volume was off, with 16% fewer homes sold in 2024. At the same time, median prices were up 44%.
Hill: Sales Off 16%
November and December of last year looked like a bad thing was turning good, and then January 2024 came along. Home sales on the Hill suffered less than at the Beach or Inland, but a 16% drop in sales volume in an already moribund market hurt. Median prices on the Hill hit that “sweet spot” with no change up or down.
Compared to January of 2023 the number of home sales on the Hill went stratospheric climbing 50% for the month. Of course, having read this far you know last winter was a low spot in the market. Combine that with the comparatively small number of sales on the Palos Verdes Peninsula and it’s easy to have outsize percentages. While sales volume was up 50%, median prices climbed a more modest 8%.
January 2024 versus January 2019 in home sales on the Hill showed an solid improvement. The number of homes sold increased by 27%, in contrast to falling sales in the Harbor and Beach areas. With the number of home sales up, a 37% increase in the median price is a welcome addition.
Inland: Sales Off 36%
Home sales in the Inland area closely followed those at the Beach in January. Similarly, the month ended with a calamitous 36% drop in the number of homes sold—down to 67 homes from over 100 in both November and December. Likewise, the median price came in with an 11% increase, slightly less than at the Beach. This shows the effect of “sticky prices” where a lot of sales don’t happen because the sellers are resistant to lower offers and buyers are balking at higher prices.
On a year over year basis, January 2024 showed 8% growth in the number of sales compared to last January. Median prices continued following the long downward slide of 2023 and dropped another 6%.
Comparing the Inland sales to 2019, the most recent stable year, the number of homes sold has dropped by 39% leaving a lot of room for recovery. The median price has climbed 40% over that five years, roughly 27% greater than the “ideal inflation” sought by the Federal Reserve.
Beach=Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach, El Segundo
Harbor=Carson, Long Beach, San Pedro, Wilmington, Harbor City
PV Hill=Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates
