California has always been an expensive place to live, and it’s only getting more and more expensive. The median home price is about 2.5 times higher than the national average, and 11 times the median income. Of course, prices are trending upwards across the nation. Appreciation over time is normal, and has accelerated in the wake of the 2020 pandemic. But these things affect everyone — so why is California specifically so much more expensive?
It’s not just as simple as having higher desirability, although that is certainly the case. The primary issue is a lack of affordable housing. There are multiple reasons for this. California may be the third largest state by area, but it also has the highest population of any state. It’s not among the densest, but it is rather sprawling. There’s just not a lot of open land to build on, particularly land that fits all the various zoning restrictions that are in dire need of updating. However, updating zoning laws is getting pushback from residents. Construction costs are also up. While construction companies typically would rather build multifamily residences, they have to build what’s in demand — which is mainly single-family residences.
In addition, because purchasing a home is so expensive, landlords are better served continuing to rent out their homes and units rather than attempting to sell, even though selling would decrease home prices. This is exacerbated by property tax laws in California. Prop 13 limits the rate at which property taxes can increase until a property exchanges ownership. Therefore, people who have owned a home for a long time can pay very little in property taxes, reducing the likelihood of any sort of market activity.
Improving your home can be an exciting yet daunting task. To help you navigate your home improvements smoothly, here are six things not to do when giving your house a makeover.
Don’t plant trees too close to your home. It might seem like a great idea to add some greenery, but planting trees too close to your home can lead to root damage to your foundations and plumbing. Plant trees at a safe distance to avoid future headaches. A good landscaper or garden center employee should be able to help you find the best plants for your lot.
Don’t clean windows on a sunny day. Cleaning windows when the sun is shining directly on them can cause the cleaner to dry too quickly, leaving streaks. Choose a cloudy day to get a spotless, streak-free finish.
Don’t ignore regulations. Skipping the necessary permits might save time initially but can lead to major issues down the road, including fines and even the nightmare of having to undo your work. Always check local regulations, get the proper permits, and keep them for your records.
Don’t use the wrong tools. Although not investing in fancy tools might save money, using the wrong tools for a job can lead to poor results and potential injury. Make sure you have the right tools or hire a professional if needed.
Don’t forget to protect your furniture. There’s nothing worse than eyeing up a beautifully renovated room only to find your couch ruined by dust, debris, and flying paint. Cover your furniture with sheeting or move it to another room to keep it safe. Resist the urge to move your drop cloths and sheets before everything has dried, as you could smudge and track paint around by mistake once you think you have the job done!
Obviously, a roof is a very important thing to have. After all, the term “a roof over your head” is often used to represent the entire house. But most people only consider whether or not their roof is in good condition. They don’t think about what kind of roof best suits their needs.
Different roofing materials have different advantages. Which is right for you depends which factors are most important to you. Are you looking for something durable that will last a long time? Try metal or slate roofing. Metal roofing is increasing in popularity due to its longevity and customizability options, but slate roofs do last a fair bit longer, and are still considered visually appealing despite a lack of color options. Do you just want the most cost-effective option? Look no further than asphalt shingles, which are one of the cheapest roofing materials and can be replaced individually if damaged, rather than replacing the entire roof. Perhaps you’re into energy efficiency and eco-friendliness? Wood shingles and shakes can be sustainably sourced and have natural insulation, and tile roofs are energy efficient as well, while also resisting weather conditions, fire, rot, and insects and coming in a variety of colors and patterns.
In the first quarter of 2021 buyers and sellers were taking advantage of the artificially low interest rates. Sales were robust and the demand pushed prices up along with the increase in sales volume. By first quarter 2022 sales volume was waning, but sellers were still attached to the higher prices so we saw sales dropping off dramatically. The first three months of 2023 gave us even deeper cuts in the number of South Bay homes sold and brought some corresponding declines in median prices. Today, looking at the South Bay market for the first quarter of 2024, prices are still “sticky” with sellers hoping to hang onto the gains from the Covid years.
It’s not working real well. January gave sellers hope with a strong growth in sales volume and modest increases in median price. February showed returning median price increases and buyers backing off again in response. March is back to the drawing boards as buyers have balked at the price increases in the face of continuing elevated interest rates.
This is coupled with news trickling out of the Federal Reserve Board about how mortgage interest rates are probably not going to see the three rate decreases predicted at the beginning of the year. The latest announcement confirmed that if rate decreases come at all, it won’t be until late in the year and it won’t be significant.
To gain perspective on the impact to the real estate market, it must be noted that the number of South Bay homes sold during the first quarter of 2024 is nearly identical to last year, and is still 19% lower than the first quarter of 2019, the last year of normal business before the pandemic. At the same time the median price of those homes is up almost 10% over last year and is 40% higher than it was in 2019.
Somehow a 40% increase in cost within five years, with a negative demand, seems to be a violation of general economic principles. It appears the post-pandemic adjustment back to normality has digressed somewhere along the path. Of course, all this has been further impacted by the fact 2024 is a presidential election year, and simultaneously the world is in extreme turmoil both economically and physically.
Month by month performance has been unusually erratic for quite some time. So far this year the comparison of this month to the same month last year is the most stable view of the real estate market. According to that view, the number of homes sold has gradually slid into negative territory. January kicked off the year with a blanket increase in the sales volume. February flipped that showing for about half the South Bay. which slid below the sales of last February. March has furthered that negative sales volume to all areas of the South Bay.
Median prices are managing to stay above those of 2023. With sales down across the area and mortgage interest rates stubbornly increasing, that may be changing soon.
Beach: Home Sales Erratic
The Beach cities truly exemplified the erratic nature of month over month statistics during the first quarter. Compared to the prior month, sales in January were down 46%, in February up 48% and in March down 1%. Using the same metrics, monthly median prices were up 13%, down 1% and up 13%.
Looking at the same three months in a year over year method, the statistical movement is much less dramatic. Compared to the same month last year, January sales volume was up 30%, February up 33% and in a surprise drop, March was down 8%. By the same token, median prices were up 7%, up 29% and up 16%.
Disconcertingly, it’s been two years since the pandemic ended and the market is still seeing double digit movement monthly in both volume and pricing. This lack of stability results from several different influences on the real estate market. Among them the continued increase in mortgage interest rates, a corresponding relaxation of qualification requirements by lenders, a public perception of good economic conditions and a continued shortage of homes on the market.
Year to date sales volume for homes at the Beach has increased 13% while median prices have risen by 7% over 2023. Compared to 2019, sales are off by 35% with median prices 43% higher.
Harbor: Up, Then Down, Then Up
Month to month activity for the first quarter in the Harbor area has followed an equally irrational pattern to that of the Beach. January saw sales and prices drop by 13% and 4% respectively. Then February brought increases in both numbers, volume going up 8% and the median price by 6%. March came in mixed with sales volume up 16% while the median slipped by 3%.
Annually, homes in the Harbor area started the year on a positive note with 9% growth in number of homes sold and an accompanying 7% growth in median price. February saw sales decline 3% with an increase in median price of 18%. Sales volume continued to fall in March, decreasing by 8%, albeit with a 4% increase in median price.
Year to date for the first quarter shows the number of homes sold declined by 2%, while the median price increased by 10%. Compared to 2019, sales are off by 16% with median prices 43% higher.
Hill: Sales and Prices Up; Sorta
After two months of negative sales volume and falling median prices, home sales on the Hill perked up in March. Volume was up 39% with 50 properties sold and median prices took a 12% jump to $1.982M. As mentioned in the past, properties on the Palos Verdes peninsula, much like those in the Beach cities, represent a smaller segment of the marketplace and often one or two outsize transactions will create a major shift in the statistics.
Of course, that “perkiness” is relative. While the number of homes sold was 39% higher than February, it was still 19% lower than March of 2023 and 25% below March of 2019, the last year prior to the upsets of the corona virus pandemic.
The 19% drop in sales was accompanied by a 14% increase in median price, a contradiction seen around the South Bay and generally across the State. The typically accepted explanation is that many home owners took advantage of the low mortgage interest rates offered during the pandemic. Those people are now unwilling to take on a new mortgage with an interest rate two to three times higher than they are currently paying. This is leaving a much smaller selection of available homes and has created an inventory shortage which encourages competitive bidding among the few buyers active in the market.
The first quarter of the year brought a 3% decline in homes sold on the Hill and an 8% increase in median price. Compared to the first three months of 2019, sales are currently off by 11% and the median is up 36%.
Inland: One Good March
The number of homes sold in the Inland area for March jumped by 33% to 125 closed escrows. Median prices increased a more modest 7% to $925K. Like the Harbor area, there is a comparatively large number homes in the Inland area and they offer a diverse range of prices. As an example, the low sale for this March was $371K while the high was $2.525M. Mathematics is a great tool for analyzing trends in real estate, but if one is planning to buy or sell in this environment, you should call a professional rather than simply applying these statistics.
Compared to the same month last year, March sales volume was down 7%, while the median price was up 11%. Year to date, the sales volume for the Inland area was unchanged, and the median price was up 8%. Similarly, comparing to 2019, sales were down 12% and prices up 40%
As discussed earlier, there’s a tendency for buyer resistance to the combination of higher prices and higher interest rates. Three months into the year, that resistance seems to be growing. Since the most recent Federal Reserve announcement, mortgage interest rates have climbed about .375% (3/8ths of a point). Looking at the statistical trend in conjunction with the increasing interest rate, we anticipate continued slippage in volume and more declines in median price throughout the South Bay.
Beach=Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach, El Segundo Harbor=Carson, Long Beach, San Pedro, Wilmington, Harbor City PV Hill=Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates Inland=Torrance, Lomita, Gardena
The heat of California, particularly in the summer, means many Californians turn up the air conditioner to stay cool. But there are some areas of the world that can get just as hot, if not hotter, and do without cooling systems. How do they manage it? In Burkina Faso, which frequently reaches temperatures over 100 F, it’s the type of stone used for construction.
Burkina Faso is rather low on the Human Development Index (HDI), ranking 184th out of 191 countries as of 2020. This means much of the country doesn’t have access to electricity, and importing concrete is expensive. What they do have easy access to is a stone called laterite, which forms naturally in the region. Laterite is quite strong once formed into blocks, and its thermal properties help keep the interior cool. Constructing buildings using laterite is not a new concept, but in much of the world it has been replaced by concrete.
Unfortunately, laterite is not a solution for California. With its advantages come some pretty severe disadvantages. Laterite has extremely low earthquake resistance. In California, which has over a hundred earthquakes per day and building laws requiring high earthquake resistance, laterite buildings simply won’t work.
Every month we compare the level of home sales from the preceding month to the same month of the preceding year. For example, November of 2023 is compared to November of 2022 to determine whether the number of homes being sold is growing or shrinking. The year over year number of homes sold across the South Bay has been shrinking every month since October of 2021–until now. November of 2023 marked the first time since October of 2021 where the number of homes sold increased over the same month in the prior year.
Lest we become overly enthusiastic, we need to remember that at this time last year successful sales figures were plummeting, Closed escrows were shrinking at up to 50% below the prior year in fall of 2022. So a positive value could only mean we’re bouncing along the bottom.
Also on the positive side, there is some improvement in median price which has been shrinking most of this year. At least as of November, it’s looking like “scattered improvement” in the South Bay real estate market.
Beach: Home Sales Pull Out of Dive
After two successive months of declining sales volume and falling median prices November real estate activity brought positive news to the Beach Cities. Last month saw a 9% jump in sales volume over October, and a 4% increase in the median price. The number of homes sold climbed from 79 last month to 86 in November. Concurrently, the median price gained nearly $70K.
The downside was a 3% drop of the median price versus November of 2022. The sold median for last November was $1.700M compared to $1.656M this year. The year over year sales volume gained 8% with 86 sales versus last years 80 transactions.
Year to date remains in red ink with sales down 14% January through November. For the same time period, the median price has fallen by 2%.
Harbor: Volume and Prices Turn Upward
Compared to November of 2022, both sales volume and median price climbed by 7% last month. This is the second month of solid upward figures for residential home sales in the Harbor area. Sales figures for the area have been in red ink since the beginning of the year, so these are welcome statistics for home owners wishing to sell.
On a monthly basis, the number of homes sold in the Harbor area fell by 6%, dropping from 267 in October to 252 in November. despite a median price increase of 1%.
Looking at the longer term, median price for the first 11 months of the year has fallen from $756K in 2022 to $740K, for a decline of 2% in the year to date median price. Sales volume for the same 11 months went from 3,770 in 2022 to 3,076 this year, a decrease of 18%.
Hill: Sales Volume Down, Prices Up
Comparing November of 2023 to November from last year shows a 10% drop in sales from 51 units in 2022 to 46 units this year. Despite the decline in number of sales, the median price for November climbed 19%, going from $1.77M in 2022 to $1.94M this year.
Monthly changes to the median price are much smaller and have been getting smaller as the year progresses. The November decrease was 1%, having dropped from $1.96M to $1.94M. The median price has varied monthly throughout the year. It ranged from a high of $2.3M in May of this year and fell as low as $1.6M in February. Year to date the median for the Hill is up 1% from 2022.
After having risen in September by 14% and in October by 13%, the number of homes sold on the Hill fell by 27% in November. Of course, part of the decline is seasonal. However, month to month sales volume for the first 11 months of 2023 was off by 19% in Palos Verdes with a similar drop of 16% overall for the South Bay.
Inland: Median Price Up from 2022
November 2023 was a good month for the Inland area compared to the same month last year. The number of homes sold climbed 11%, from 96 sold last year to 107 this year. Median price turned upward by 6%, ending the month at $851K, changed from $800K in 2022.
Compared to October of this year, Inland homes sales fell 8%, dropping from 116 homes to 107. That rate of change was slightly higher than the 6% drop across the South Bay. Median prices fell 7% for the month.
Year to date, the Inland area sales volume is off by 12% while the median price is up 1% from the same period in 2022.
Beach=Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach, El Segundo Harbor=Carson, Long Beach, San Pedro, Wilmington, Harbor City PV Hill=Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates Inland=Torrance, Lomita, Gardena
As of August 2023, interest rates are somewhere around 7%, possibly higher. While this isn’t astronomically high — they have historically been over 10% — it’s too high for current homeowners to want to exchange their homes. This is because 92% of current homeowners with a mortgage have an interest rate below 6%. Almost a quarter even have locked in an interest rate below 3%.
High home prices are actually somewhat helping current homeowners, since the price boost increases their equity. Prices have increased 14% in the past two years, which results in approximately $86,000 in equity over that time period. However, this may not be enough to offset the increased mortgage costs, especially for those with very low interest rates. Assuming a mortgage of $500,000 and a current interest rate of 3%, a new purchase with the same loan amount would result in a $1,200 increase in mortgage payments per month.
Normally, when demand is low like this, supply is high. This isn’t the case right now. Previously, we would have been able to blame declining construction due to increased construction costs. That’s no longer the case, though, as construction has largely, though not completely, recovered. It may even be simple lack of demand that is the final obstacle to a full recovery for construction. To see the real problem, remember which group we’re talking about — current homeowners. These are the same people who would be selling to buy a new home. If they’re not willing to buy in the current mortgage climate, they’re not selling either.
Purchasing a home is a tough decision. You’re probably going to live there around eight to ten years, on average, so you want to make sure it’s somewhere you want to live. The good thing about building new is that you can make sure the home itself is right for you. But it’s really not that simple. There are pros and cons to both buying and building.
The most obvious advantage to buying an existing home is the reduced hassle. You don’t need to oversee the design and construction, making sure everything is to your specifications. You don’t need to wait for construction to finish before moving in, and while delays are still possible, there are fewer opportunities for delays. Another is that purchasing a home may be less expensive. This depends on the area, but construction costs are still high. Moreover, existing homes have almost immediate resale value, which can mean greater equity when you go to sell it. A less apparent advantage of buying an existing home is location. You might imagine that when you’re building new, you can pick anywhere to build as well, but the fact of the matter is that there are far more existing homes than empty lots, so you don’t get as much choice of where to build unless you’re planning to bulldoze an existing home.
The primary benefit to building new is customization. Whether you’re buying or building, you should have a good idea of what you need or want in a home. By building new, you ensure that you get those things, as long as they’re within your budget and no complications occur. A new home also means fewer issues, at least once the construction is finished. Any major structural issues would be the fault of the builders and not age. The property will use the latest building technologies, which are generally safer and more energy efficient. Building new is also a safer investment, albeit not necessarily a highly profitable one. It may take longer for a newly constructed home to accrue equity, but it’s extremely unlikely to go negative by the time you sell.
There are certain factors that are always important when buying a home. Everyone knows to look within their budget and find a good location, even if they need the help of an agent to figure out what those are. The same is true of buying land for the construction of a new property; however, there are additional considerations that you need to keep in mind.
When you’re buying an existing property, you can be fairly certain that the property is located within the boundaries of the lot and the soil has suitable conditions for building. If either of these isn’t the case, you certainly should be notified. But if you’re buying land with the intent to build, you need to know the property lines, topography, and soil conditions before you can determine whether or not it’s the right lot for you. You should also make sure that any utilities you want are readily available. Not every home needs to have access to every utility, but if you want one that isn’t currently available, that could mean the lot isn’t right for you or may just require additional expenditures. Another factor is zoning. If a property exists there, the area is probably zoned for such a property, else it’s grandfathered in somehow, or there’s a chance some work was done on it without a permit. If there is no property, you need to know what types of properties can be legally built there.
Builders have had it rough the past few years. The pandemic resulted in skyrocketing lumber prices as well as many job losses for construction workers. In order to get the most bang for their buck, builders started building luxury homes, which generally have a higher profit to cost ratio. But this couldn’t last long, as both market demand and legislation pressured them towards construction of affordable living homes, while at the same time, zoning restrictions made even this rather difficult.
Pressures on construction companies have started to ease up in most of the country, but not everywhere. Particularly in the West and Northwest, available land is an issue. Fortunately, builders may have figured it out and now have a new plan: Make smaller homes. It’s predicted that more affordable starter homes will become available within the next year or two, as 42% of builders are reducing the square footage of their homes. It doesn’t even require a big change — the nation’s largest homebuilder, D.R. Horton, is only reducing home sizes by an average of 2%. Builders are also planning to build more townhomes and duplexes, which take up significantly less space per unit than single-family residences.
In the US in general, the market has been slowing down. This is leading to a higher inventory — in March 2023, the number of homes for sale was 9% higher than in March 2022. But this isn’t the case in California. In fact, for-sale inventory in California’s largest metro areas was actually down 14% between the same two months. The difference is most stark in San Jose, where inventory dropped 32%.
However, this does have a couple of explanations. Available inventory is a raw number. It doesn’t take into account the number of buyers. Home sales volume is more indicative of the number of buyers, and that dropped significantly more than 14% between March 2022 and March 2023, by 33%. Thus, the ratio of homes available per buyer is actually higher than it was last year. In addition, California is still being affected by lower construction rates, while it has recovered in many other states. The major reason is pushback from local homeowners who don’t want additional construction in their neighborhood.
While construction rates have been low overall since the pandemic, construction rates can potentially vary significantly depending on the type of building you’re looking at. This can be the result of different levels of demand or zoning regulations. Recent zoning reforms have tried to push construction more towards multi-family residences, believing that zoning is the primary obstacle.
However, if recent numbers are any indicator, there simply isn’t much demand for multi-family residences. Construction starts on buildings with five or more units dropped by 6.7% in March. Permits for such buildings also fell sharply, by 24.3%. At the same time, construction of single-family residences (SFRs) increased by 2.7%, and SFR construction permits increased by 4.1%. Overall, construction starts dipped down 0.8% and permits decreased by 8.8%.
Even though this wasn’t the goal of the zoning reforms, not everyone sees this as a bad thing. SFRs being in higher demand could signal that more people are ready to buy as opposed to rent. However, since it’s not renters but potential landlords that would create demand for multi-family residences, it’s also possible that homeowners simply aren’t seeing the value in renting the units out, leaving potential tenants in the dust.
There was a time that smaller homes and multi-family living were common in Long Beach. Over the decades, that has transitioned to condos and then to single-family residences. But in 2020, Long Beach municipal codes were revised, reducing the minimum square footage requirement to just 220 square feet. The original aim was probably not co-living, which wasn’t on the radar given that it occurred around the start of the pandemic. Nevertheless, builders now are seeing the opportunity to build apartment buildings consisting of small units with shared common area.
Derek Burnham is a former Long Beach city planner and now works at a development firm, and is excited about the idea. Burnham has already planned about 48 units, which are going to be roughly the same size as hotel rooms, around 350 to 500 square feet. The target audience for this project is people who want to be near jobs and transportation, but can’t afford the typical apartment or condo unit. But builders don’t yet know how receptive people will be to it — after all, the transition away from shared living towards single-family residences was cultural and not pragmatic. Because of this, the plans are flexible, allowing anything from private units to shared units to miniature family units.
The housing shortage we’re currently experiencing has been attributed in large part to lack of construction. There’s a lot more to the story, though. First of all, the slow construction doesn’t even account for all of our housing shortage — there are other factors such as increasing population, a rapidly changing housing market, and vacant homes not for sale or rent. As far as construction, the problem isn’t merely a lack of it. It’s true that construction dropped significantly during the pandemic, but it’s mostly recovered now. The actual issue is that the homes being constructed are frequently not adding additional units.
The statistics you see when looking at construction starts account for all types of construction. However, much of the construction that’s occurring right now isn’t on vacant land. In 2021, 76% of builders reported that the number of available lots is low to very low. In California, a lot of this has to do with zoning laws. Many areas aren’t zoned for multi-family residences or even for residences at all. Even in areas that allow condos or apartment buildings, single-family residences (SFRs) are in higher demand in California. Building SFRs in the right place is also difficult. 28% of SFR construction is reliant on lots called infill sites. While these are vacant land, which is good, they’re in areas that already have a high density of housing and are less in need of additional construction. A further 20% of SFR construction starts come after teardowns, merely replacing one SFR with another SFR.
A build-to-rent community is a community in which single-family homes are build solely for the purpose of renting them out. It isn’t a new concept, but it’s been under the radar for quite some time, comprising only 3% of the single-family residence (SFR) market. As just one of many changes in the type of demand brought in the wake of the pandemic, that number is now up to 12%.
Many people who transitioned to work-from-home needed more space for a home office. That meant looking for a larger home. For renters, that often wasn’t possible, since they were priced out of the homebuying market. But what if they could rent the type of home people normally would buy? In a build-to-rent community, they can. The SFRs in such communities have significantly more space than apartment units, and while they are certainly more expensive to rent than apartment units, rising home prices meant renters definitely couldn’t buy if they weren’t able to before. It’s definitely possible to find SFRs that are not in a build-to-rent community, but looking for such a community guarantees it, and also comes with community amenities.
The goal of the Fed’s decision to increase the benchmark rate was to ultimately lower prices. That is now beginning to happen, but many other things have been affected in the meantime. One is builder confidence. As can be expected, rising interest rates are causing lower demand for buyers, including new construction buyers. That means builders are getting less business. This is not a good sign in an environment that many believe is best solved through increased construction.
The Fed’s decision may be starting to solve one issue, but is it actually the optimal solution? Could something else have been done? Maybe, maybe not. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), the Housing Market Index (HMI), of which builder confidence is one component, was actually already below 50, which is the midpoint indicating neutral confidence. This is despite multiple laws making construction easier, especially for affordable housing. HMI dropped 5 points from 38 to 33 between October and November. Back in November of 2021, it was at 83. The builder confidence score in particular dropped six points from 45 in October to 39 in November. Though the problem is national, with decreases in every region, different regions have different levels of builder sentiment. The South dropped the most, by seven points, but still has the highest builder sentiment of any region at 42. Builder sentiment is by far the lowest in the West, at 29, despite only dropping five points. The smallest change was in the Midwest, dropping merely two points from 40 to 38.
Two more bills aimed at increasing multi-family construction go into effect July 1, 2023 after Governor Newsom signed them into law in September. These are AB 2011, called the Affordable Housing and High Road Jobs Act of 2022, and SB 6, the Middle Class Housing Act of 2022. Both laws sunset nine and a half years later, on January 1, 2033.
AB 2011 adds a secondary review pathway for some multi-family construction projects. If the project meets affordability standards and site criteria, the review will not take into account conditional use permits or environmental impact reports. The site must be primarily commercial, and unless it’s a commercial corridor, 100% of the units must be below market rate. Even if it is on a commercial corridor, 15% of the units must be below market rate. AB 2011 also includes provisions for fair pay and additional training for construction workers. SB 6 expands the types of buildings that can be constructed in areas zoned for office, retail or parking. These buildings may be residential if they meet certain other criteria, many of which are similar to the requirements set forth in AB 2011.
Construction has had multiple ups and downs in recent years as a result of the pandemic and surrounding economic factors. Throughout it all, multi-family construction has actually done pretty well. In fact, it’s currently at its highest rate in the last fifty years in terms of total number of new multi-family constructions. Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean it’s high — construction has been in a slump for the past thirty years, and meanwhile the population has been increasing.
Los Angeles has it the worst of any US metro, underproducing by about 400,000 homes. This is despite the fact that it’s also one of the top metros for multi-family construction. In large part, this can be attributed to the fact that it is the second most populated metro in the US. But the real issue is restrictive zoning laws, which are only recently being changed in California. The vast majority of homes in the Los Angeles metro are single-family residences because that’s what the lot’s zoning allows.
The housing crisis is a well-established issue and many efforts have been made, or are in the process of being made, to address it. Most of these efforts are focused on low-income housing, since it ensures that the greatest number of people are served by it. However, San Diego faces a different issue. A significant number of residents don’t qualify for affordable housing programs and are instead looking at middle-income housing. Unfortunately for the city, they aren’t able to receive federal subsidies for middle-income housing construction.
So now they’re beginning to devise a plan. The city’s Middle-Income Housing Working Group has recommended a combination of immediate actions, short-term plans, and long-term plans. Immediate steps include streamlining codes and review processes, creating a list of public land available for middle-income housing construction, and converting public facilities to mixed-use structures. Future plans include tax modifications, a public rent registry, construction loan guarantees, investing in community land trusts, and redirecting philanthropic funds to middle-income housing.
New constructions are always built to certain specifications, whether that’s tract uniformity or client’s wishes. In the latter case, the client is usually also going to be resident. That’s starting to change, as investors are noticing that renting is becoming a lot more common as prices rise. Investors are now getting new constructions built for the express purpose of renting them out.
Only 3% of new construction SFRs were build-to-rent in 2019. By the end of 2021, this number jumped to 26%. It’s not entirely clear if this will continue to increase or not. While increased inventory of rental properties does benefit renters, renting is rarely a desired state. Almost everyone would prefer to buy if they can afford it. But it’s not renters pushing the trend. It’s the investors, and they stand to benefit as long as renters must continue to rent, whether they want to or not.
