The original BeachChatter discusses the housing market in the coastal communities south of the city of Los Angeles. Some articles are peculiar to a single city. Some discuss the region as a whole. The focus is on privately owned housing.
Come together for the Gathering for the Grand 2023! This year the grand event will be a live concert held at the Warner Grand Theatre, featuring premier Rolling Stones tribute band, JUMPING JACK FLASH! Jumping Jack Flash delivers that same raw, high-energy, larger-than-life rock show that you remember from the Rolling Stones. The honoree this year is the Warner Grand “herself”, right before the Theatre closes for its big renovation. Dress as your favorite rock star and celebrate the Theatre’s past, present and future!
Proceeds benefit Grand Vision Foundation’s performing arts & music education programs.
April of 2023 ended with a 40% drop in the number of homes sold across the South Bay compared to 2022. The median price was down 20% from last year in Palos Verdes and is up by a mere 1% at the Beach. Year to year median prices across the South Bay are down approximately 5%. Cumulative sales revenue for the first four months across the South Bay has dropped 39% from 2022 numbers.
Year to date, 2023 has been one of the slowest markets we’ve seen in recent years. Sales are off by 43% in the Beach Cities and are down by 22% across the South Bay compared to last year. Median prices escalated dramatically in 2021-2022, and are still above those of 2019 by 30-35%. However, the median has fallen in all four areas since late last year. We anticipate the median price continuing to drop until interest rates seriously decline again.
Business in the years between 2019 and 2023 was seriously impacted by the pandemic, and the massive government funds released to counter the effect of the pandemic. Looking back at 2019 and comparing it to 2023 offers a perspective on where the market is and where we can expect it to go during the balance of the year. Today we see a huge decline in the number of homes being sold. That has yet to translate into a significant decline in median prices, although 75% of year over year sales show prices falling.
At the same time the Average Days On Market (ADOM) has increased from about 7 days during the sales boom of 2021-2022 to about 30 days now. That’s a four-fold increase in the amount of time it takes to sell a home. For a seller who needs to move, that will feel like an eternity. It’s that sense of urgency that drives prices down and ultimately results in a shift of the market.
At the Beach “Sticky Prices”
Sellers in the Beach Cities had a good month in April—at least compared to March of this year. Compared to April of last year, the picture is far worse.
The number of homes sold in April was up 8% compared to March. That sounds positive, until the realization that sales volume was down 36% compared to April of 2022. At the same time, the median price was up 2% versus last month, and down 2% compared to the same month last year.
There’s a lot of talk among brokers these days about “sticky prices.” Recent sales at the Beach offer a good example of what that means. The statistics show that sales are down 36% from last year, however prices have only dropped 2%. Sales are falling because the number of viable buyers is down.
Interest rate increases have pushed the most tenuous group of prospective buyers out of the market. At the same time, sellers are still revelling in the boost to median prices that came with record low interest rates during the pandemic. Beach area sellers have yet to adjust to the reality of a re-trenching economy. That adjustment is “sticky prices.”
Harbor Sales and Prices Off
The neighborhood can affect how long it takes the median price to respond to changes in the economic environment. While sales volume and pricing has remained strong at the Beach, sellers and buyers in entry level communities are impacted more immediately by shifts in the economy.
Thus we see the give and take of the market bring median prices into a stable range early in the year in the Harbor area. The red line in the median price chart below shows four months of reasonably steady prices. While month over month prices have shown only a 1% drop, the monthly sales volume has taken a 12% dive from March, as shown in the Sales Volume chart, above.
The monthly decline in sales was multiplied in the year over year statistics. April sales volume was down 39% from April of 2022. For the same period, the declining sales volume was coupled with a 9% drop in median price. So the entry level communities demonstrate a much quicker and deeper response to changes in the financial picture.
Part of that response is the time on market, which has risen from 15 ADOM in mid-2021 to 26 ADOM in April of this year. The increasing time required to sell homes contributes to the number of homes available on the market. Both factors contribute to falling purchase prices.
Palos Verdes In Extremes
Through 2021 and 2022 home prices on the Palos Verdes peninsula benefitted from the Covid pandemic more than any area in the South Bay. In the median price by quarter chart, shown below, the yellow line is seen jumping up and away from the blue line of the Beach Cities. Unfortunately for home owners on the Hill, that price boost has already pulled back into line with prices of Beach area homes.
Comparing the first four months of the 2023 to 2022 median prices on the Hill have dropped 16%. It’s a steep decline in view of decreases at 3% and 6% in the Inland and Harbor areas, respectively. Even more so when looking at the 1% increase at the Beach.
The statistics look much better when comparing Palos Verdes sales from 2023 to statistics from 2019, the last “normal” year of real estate business. Sales volume on the Hill is down a modest 13%–modest by comparison to the Beach, which is down 43%. In contrast, median prices in 2023, compared to 2019, are still showing positive growth of 30%.
So, if one were to take the Federal Reserve System position that 2% annual growth is a desirable target, where would prices be today? The median price in Palos Verdes in May of 2019 was $1.5M. Jump forward to 2023 and that becomes about $1.6M. The median on the Hill last month was $1.9M, which suggests further price reductions.
Inland – The Steepest Fall
From an investment perspective, homes in the Inland area of the Los Angeles South Bay are “bread and butter.” These are the homes, much like those in the Harbor area, which reliably increase in value over long periods of time at a slow and steady rate. Most importantly, they house the bulk of our community.
In the short term, Inland home sales volume is down 25% from March to April of this year. Median prices are up 2% for the same period. This is the steepest fall in number of homes sold in the four areas charted.
Year over year, sales volume is off even more at 43% below April of 2022, and prices similarly down by 4%. We expect a seasonal boost to sales for the second quarter, when families most frequently schedule moves. Beyond that, most predictions are for continued softening in the real estate market as the Fed struggles with inflation. (The April Consumer Price Index, [CPI-U] for Los Angeles metro was 5.2% for Housing.)
If you’re planning to hire a contractor, chances are it’s because you don’t know how to do the work yourself. Because of this, it’s common to believe that the contractor knows what they’re doing and you don’t need to get involved or ask questions. But that couldn’t be further from the truth. Communication is very important when dealing with contractors to make sure the job that’s being done is the job you wanted. It may require a bit of research, but you should learn how to ask the right questions to get the right contractor for your job.
The specifics will depend on the particular job you want done, but there are some things you should be doing prior to choosing a contractor regardless of the job. When looking for a contractor, get quotes from multiple people and verify all of their credentials, licenses, and certifications, as well as experience. Make sure the contractor you pick has liability insurance and worker’s compensation insurance. The next part is what may require some additional research, and that is defining the scope of the job and setting a timeline. If you don’t know exactly what you’re looking to be done, the contractor won’t either, even if they know how to do it. When you get the contract, make sure it contains all the necessary elements before signing. A proper contract contains all the terms and conditions, payment information, warranties, and dispute resolution procedures.
In the US in general, the market has been slowing down. This is leading to a higher inventory — in March 2023, the number of homes for sale was 9% higher than in March 2022. But this isn’t the case in California. In fact, for-sale inventory in California’s largest metro areas was actually down 14% between the same two months. The difference is most stark in San Jose, where inventory dropped 32%.
However, this does have a couple of explanations. Available inventory is a raw number. It doesn’t take into account the number of buyers. Home sales volume is more indicative of the number of buyers, and that dropped significantly more than 14% between March 2022 and March 2023, by 33%. Thus, the ratio of homes available per buyer is actually higher than it was last year. In addition, California is still being affected by lower construction rates, while it has recovered in many other states. The major reason is pushback from local homeowners who don’t want additional construction in their neighborhood.
Are you planning to have kids soon and need ideas for names? The Social Security Administration (SSA) just released the list of the most popular baby names last year. If you want to be trendy, you can pick something from this list. Alternatively, you can take it as a list of names to avoid. Either way, it could be useful information, or could simply spark your creativity.
Liam and Olivia are the top choices for boys and girls respectively, and have been for several years now. Liam has been #1 for six years, and Olivia for four. The rest of the top ten list for boys are Noah, Oliver, James, Elijah, William, Henry, Lucas, Benjamin, and Theodore. For girls, they’re Emma, Charlotte, Amelia, Sophia, Isabella, Ava, Mia, Evelyn, and Luna. Of all twenty of these names, Luna is the only one that has never been in the top 10 before now.
The SSA also provided data on which names are growing fastest in popularity. None of these names are anywhere near the top 10, but they’re gaining the fastest. For boys, they’re Dutton, Kayce, Chosen, Khaza, and Eithan. For girls, they’re Wrenlee, Neriah, Arlet, Georgina, and Amiri.
Private Mortgage Insurance, or PMI, is a type of insurance that many lenders require for any mortgage with a down payment less than 20%. This is the main reason a minimum 20% down payment is so widely suggested. But if you aren’t able to put 20% down and are forced to take PMI, you needn’t worry too much. It’s also possible to get rid of existing PMI in certain circumstances.
One method that doesn’t require any specific action on your part is to simply wait until automatic termination of PMI, which occurs when you reach 22% equity and are current on your mortgage payments. However, it’s possible to request to terminate it earlier as long as your equity is at least 20%. There are a few ways to do this faster. The simplest option is to pay more than the required mortgage payment. This allows you to reach 20% equity faster while also reducing your PMI costs along the way. Another way you could potentially reduce payments to speed up equity gain is to refinance to a lower interest rate. Depending on your circumstances, this may or may not increase your total mortgage cost excluding PMI, but could eliminate PMI faster. There’s one more possibility: Reappraising your home. It’s possible that your home has accrued enough value that determining the new value of your home reveals that you actually do have at least 20% equity. If you do, you can request to remove PMI.
At the start of May, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) modified the fee structure for loans guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. The goal of the change was to increase the accessibility of homeownership to disadvantaged groups. In order to achieve this, fees were reduced for low-income borrowers, first-time homebuyers, and those with credit scores below 680.
However, reducing some fees meant needing to increase fees elsewhere. Fees increased significantly for middle income earners, those making larger down payments, cash-out refinance applicants, and second-home buyers. Critics argue this is a bad idea, since middle-income earners are more ready to buy and less risky to lend to. But despite the fee increases for middle-income earners, fees are still lower the higher your credit score — that hasn’t changed. If the changes push middle-income earners away, the effect is probably psychological, not necessarily financial.
Real estate is almost always a solid investment. The two major barriers are the high initial investment required and the necessity to manage the property. The former can’t really be fixed, but there are things you can do about the latter. While there is always the option to hire a property manager, this increases the investment required and can make the profits less attractive. Fortunately, there are some other options for real estate investment without being involved in management, which is termed passive real estate investment.
The other options are real estate investment trusts (REITs), real estate crowdfunding, private real estate funds, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In all of these cases, you are investing only a portion of the funds. This also reduces the barrier to entry, but at the cost of lower profits. REITs are trusts that own and manage income properties. Investors can purchase shares of REITs that pay dividends. Similar to REITs, ETFs are publicly traded; however, ETFs are traded on the stock market rather than purchased as shares of a company. Real estate crowdfunding and private real estate funds both involve a group of investors pooling money for an investment project. Crowdfunding gives each investor more choice about which projects they’re interested in, which is better for an investor who knows what they’re doing while still not putting the onus of management on them. Private real estate funds are the option for investors who just want to throw money at an investment and not be involved at all, as they are managed by professionals that choose the projects.
A bridge loan is a type of loan that uses equity in your current home to finance the purchase of a new home. Like nearly any loan, a bridge loan has interest and is paid off in installments. Unlike a traditional loan, though, the balance is paid off when your current home is sold. While you don’t technically need to sell your current home to pay off a bridge loan, it’s most useful in situations in which you want to both buy and sell.
Some seller-buyers will sell first, then use the sale proceeds to purchase a new home. However, this comes with potential uncertainties about how long you will be left without a home, especially if you make offers and aren’t successful. You may be staying in hotels or renting for longer than anticipated. Another option is to buy a home first using a traditional loan, then sell. If bridge loans weren’t a thing, there wouldn’t be anything inherently wrong with this. But they are a thing, and this is exactly the situation they’re designed for. While bridge loans do come with a higher interest rate than traditional loans, the length of the loan is typically much shorter. After all, most traditional loans are 15 or 30 years, and no one is going to be waiting that long for a sale to finalize. One caveat of bridge loans is that since they are based on the equity in your current home, if your equity is low, the loan amount will also be low.
This year has not been a good year for banks. City National Bank settled for millions early this year. In March, two major banks — Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank — went bankrupt. These weren’t the only banks to fail, but they were the most well known. Now, First Republic, the largest bank to fail since Washington Mutual in 2008, has been added to list of failed banks. After First Republic failed, it was briefly taken under government control before being auctioned off. JPMorgan Chase, who had also purchased Washington Mutual when it failed, is the new owner of First Republic. The entire situation with First Republic has cost the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) about $13 billion.
However, analysts and federal regulators emphasize that the banking crisis has calmed down, now. When SVB and Signature Bank failed, fears were warranted. But those failures sparked an inquiry into which banks were likely to fail, and First Republic was identified as a likely candidate early on. So, this wasn’t entirely unexpected, and regulators were able to act quickly. Additionally, the FDIC admits that SVB’s failure was partially their fault, as they had not been meticulous in their supervision. Analysts aren’t expecting any additional major bank failures in the near future.
If you want to make the most of a partial remodel, look no further than the kitchen. Unless no one in the family knows how to cook, people will spend quite a bit of time there. Kitchen remodels are a great investment if you know what’s trending. Right now, that means terrazzo floors, soapstone, and quartz. Marble and granite are old standbys that won’t generate additional interest. Additionally, more avid chefs are definitely looking for less common kitchen amenities. These include steam ovens, pizza ovens, and professional-grade appliances.
Getting all new furniture may not seem like a solid investment, but it certainly can be. You probably do want to if your current furniture is noticeably old or beaten up. And while you’re at it, you should choose the leading trend, which remains the modern farmhouse style. This style is typified by comfort, neutral color schemes, reclaimed materials, and vintage accessories, while at the same time using modern clean lines. Nearly all modern farmhouse style homes use reclaimed wood and have large, comfortable furniture. Many display rustic-looking, but still modern, wrought iron accents as well as antiques.
Having a shed somewhere on the property will also bring in more money. In addition, accessory dwelling units (ADUs) are still popular. Combining the two also works great. Buyers are paying more for properties with sheds converted into living space. Notably, this actually doesn’t translate to a quicker sale – for one reason or another, homes with sheds stay on the market longer, despite selling for more. If you do want to sell quickly, some inexpensive upgrades that will accomplish just that are doorbell cameras, heat pumps, and fenced backyards.
While construction rates have been low overall since the pandemic, construction rates can potentially vary significantly depending on the type of building you’re looking at. This can be the result of different levels of demand or zoning regulations. Recent zoning reforms have tried to push construction more towards multi-family residences, believing that zoning is the primary obstacle.
However, if recent numbers are any indicator, there simply isn’t much demand for multi-family residences. Construction starts on buildings with five or more units dropped by 6.7% in March. Permits for such buildings also fell sharply, by 24.3%. At the same time, construction of single-family residences (SFRs) increased by 2.7%, and SFR construction permits increased by 4.1%. Overall, construction starts dipped down 0.8% and permits decreased by 8.8%.
Even though this wasn’t the goal of the zoning reforms, not everyone sees this as a bad thing. SFRs being in higher demand could signal that more people are ready to buy as opposed to rent. However, since it’s not renters but potential landlords that would create demand for multi-family residences, it’s also possible that homeowners simply aren’t seeing the value in renting the units out, leaving potential tenants in the dust.
When comparing loans, buyers frequently only look at the interest rate. However, that’s not the entire story. There’s another number that lenders are required to supply, but that lendees rarely pay attention to. That number is the annual percentage rate, or APR. This shows an estimate of the actual percentage of the loan amount that you pay each installment period. It takes into account the interest rate, principal loan amount, and loan length, as well as any lending fees or closing costs.
Even though the APR gives you a better idea of how much you’re actually paying, the interest rate by itself is still important. This is because APR doesn’t take into account compound interest. If the interest rate is high, the amount you pay each installment period could increase significantly over time. This means a loan with a lower APR could potentially cost more over time if it has low lending fees. If two loans look very close and you’re concerned about exact numbers, you may also want to look into the APY, which is the annual percentage yield. This value does take into account compound interest. As such, it’s going to be slightly different each year, but knowing the APYs across multiple years will give you the best idea of how much you are actually paying.
When people think of a lien, what most people think of is a mortgage lien, whereby the mortgage lender retakes possession of a property in the event of missed mortgage payments. Most don’t realize that the lien is actually created as soon as you get the mortgage loan; it merely doesn’t have any effect unless the contract is breached. Lien is a rather general term that applies to any situation in which one party has the right to possess another’s property until a debt is paid or waived. One type of lien is a mechanic’s lien, which is the type a contractor can place to use your property as collateral for their work.
There are two broad categories of liens, consensual and nonconsensual. Mortgage liens are consensual because they are initiated by the property owner when they get a loan. On the other hand, mechanic’s liens are nonconsensual, and can’t be placed unless the contractor is legally able to. This means that while a mortgage loan is always in effect in case of a breach of contract, a mechanic’s lien that occurs as a result of the breach of contract can’t be placed until the breach occurs. Breach of contract is only one reason for a mechanic’s lien, though. It can also be placed in the event of nonpayment, unpaid property taxes or fees, deceptive practices by the property owner, or disputes over the work performed.
Real estate agents and experts will frequently declare that the market is either a seller’s market or a buyer’s market. There isn’t some esoteric industry secret formula, though. Figuring out whether it’s a buyer’s or seller’s market is actually fairly straightforward, as long as you have access to relevant data. There are three indicators of a seller’s market: low inventory, high demand, and low construction.
Of course, these statistics are interrelated. If construction has been consistently low, there will be fewer homes on the market. If inventory is low, buyers will be more competitive, driving up demand. But it’s actually low demand and high inventory that reduces construction rates in the first place, resulting in a cyclical effect. Moreover, each of them are affected differently by factors external to the cycle. So, in order for there to be a seller’s market, all three factors are probably true.
So what should you do if you find yourself under the conditions of a seller’s market? Well, if you’re a seller, everything is great — you’ll probably find a buyer, and be able to sell at a high price, as well. However, even if you’re a buyer, you can work the seller’s market to your advantage. Be aware that prices will be higher in a seller’s market, so a home that looks overpriced may actually be perfectly priced in a seller’s market. If you see something that fits the criteria you’re looking for, be ready to make an offer. It’s likely that multiple buyers are looking at the same thing you are. Make sure to get a pre-approval so that sellers know your offer is serious. In a high demand climate, sellers may get so many offers that they won’t even look at offers that don’t seem genuine.
For people who don’t necessarily have a lot of cash on hand but are willing to invest over longer periods, buying a home in need of repairs is often what they look to. This may be in to live in or to resell the home later, but in either case, you may need to finance the repairs, the purchase itself, or even both if you’re low on ready cash. Fortunately, there are loans that are designed specifically for this situation. One such loan is the FHA 203(k) rehab loan.
The FHA 203(k) rehab loan can be used to finance both a purchase and repairs simultaneously, preventing the need for multiple loans, credit usage, or a line of credit. This can definitely save you money in the long run, especially if you are able to qualify for a low interest rate. There are two types of FHA 203(k) rehab loans: a standard loan and a streamline loan. The standard loan is designed for long-term, larger projects, such as renovating entire rooms. This type has no limit on the portion of the loan used for repairs, unlike the streamline loan, which has a limit of $35,000. It’s quicker and easier to access funds from a streamline loan, which makes it more suitable for smaller projects, like installing an HVAC or repairing plumbing.
With how much discussions of real estate tend to pit buyers and sellers against each other, it’s easy to forget they’re often actually the same people. Many sellers are also buyers, either planning to buy to replace the home they’re selling, or already bought another home. This isn’t always the case, of course — it’s entirely possible that someone could have never purchased anything, inherited two homes, and sold one of them. But this isn’t most sellers. What this means is that market conditions that are generally considered to primarily affect buyers will also affect sellers.
Such as right now, where it appears that the high interest rates that are holding buyers back are also making sellers hesitate. The majority of homeowners now have an interest rate lower than the current rates, especially if they took advantage of ultra-low rates such as the rates during the pandemic. If these homeowners were to sell and buy a new home, they would be losing their low interest rate and gaining a high interest rate. For 82% of them, that may not be worth it. Over half of those considering selling right now are deciding to wait until interest rates drop.
Transitioning from renting to buying a home can be exciting. However, make sure not to get too excited too early before you’ve terminated the lease. It’s not at all uncommon for a renter to not want to deal with their landlord any longer than they have to, and simply leave. But that could actually be costing you money or leaving you open for a lawsuit.
Lease agreements will always have an early termination policy. It may look like ignoring the policy and ditching is just a way to skip the fees, but it’s actually not. You’re still on the hook for rent payments until the lease is actually terminated, and the early termination fee could be significantly lower. There may not even be a termination fee — the rules vary widely by region and by property manager. Don’t be afraid to talk to your landlord, either. They’re much more likely to be sympathetic to your situation if they’re aware of it. If you tell your landlord you’re terminating the lease early, the worst they can legally do is charge a termination fee.
There was a time that smaller homes and multi-family living were common in Long Beach. Over the decades, that has transitioned to condos and then to single-family residences. But in 2020, Long Beach municipal codes were revised, reducing the minimum square footage requirement to just 220 square feet. The original aim was probably not co-living, which wasn’t on the radar given that it occurred around the start of the pandemic. Nevertheless, builders now are seeing the opportunity to build apartment buildings consisting of small units with shared common area.
Derek Burnham is a former Long Beach city planner and now works at a development firm, and is excited about the idea. Burnham has already planned about 48 units, which are going to be roughly the same size as hotel rooms, around 350 to 500 square feet. The target audience for this project is people who want to be near jobs and transportation, but can’t afford the typical apartment or condo unit. But builders don’t yet know how receptive people will be to it — after all, the transition away from shared living towards single-family residences was cultural and not pragmatic. Because of this, the plans are flexible, allowing anything from private units to shared units to miniature family units.
Two measures went into effect this spring, Measure GS in Santa Monica on March 1st and Measure ULA in Los Angeles on April 1st, both of which enact an additional transfer tax on the sale of very expensive homes, dubbed the Mansion Tax. Measure GS affects properties sold at over $8 million and Measure ULA has two tiers, one affecting properties sold at over $5 million and another affecting properties sold at over $10 million.
Prior to these measures, the transfer tax in both cities was a small dollar value per $1000 of purchase price regardless of property value. Including county taxes, this value is $5.60 in Los Angeles, and Santa Monica has two tiers, one at $4.10 per $1000 and another at $7.10 per $1000. Measure GS added a third tier to the Santa Monica system, which is a significantly higher $56 per $1000 value for homes over $8 million. Los Angeles still only has one base value of $5.60 per $1000, but with an additional tax of 4% for homes between $5 million and $10 million, and 5.5% for homes over $10 million.
