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Home offices now in high demand

As I’m sure you already know, the lockdowns from COVID-19 have resulted in many workers needing to resort to working from home — potentially as many as 40%. This means that workers want a space in their home to work comfortably, something many homeowners and especially renters don’t have. Spaces not designed to be a home office can be inefficient or distracting, leading to lower productivity, so extra space for a home office is increasingly becoming a priority for buyers’ next purchases.

A survey by Zillow asked people working from home what their current configuration is and how it would affect future purchasing decisions. The survey found that only a third of those working from home have a dedicated home office space, and two-thirds needed to reconfigure existing rooms. Respondents’ top reasons to consider buying a new home were either a dedicated office space or just more space in general, letting other historically popular considerations like location and price fall by the wayside. Even after the pandemic ends, buyers are are looking to make their next purchase futureproof. Sellers and construction companies are also noticing the trend.

Are you also looking for dedicated office space or extra rooms for your next home? Does your own home fit the bill, and you want to sell? Whether you’re buying or selling, we can find a match for you. Call or email us!

Photo by Roberto Nickson on Unsplash

Housing Recovery Will Take Both Time and Action

According to a recent poll of readers of the Real Estate journal First Tuesday, the most optimistic recovery date from the current recession is late 2020, with 30% of respondents hopeful for a quick rebound. A quarter of respondents believe that recovery will be tied to a COVID-19 vaccine, which is predicted to arrive no earlier than mid-2021. 45% don’t expect recovery until 2022.

Benjamin Smith of First Tuesday agrees that a COVID-19 vaccine is important to recovery, but warns that there are other aspects at play. Real Estate as a business does depend heavily on in-person interactions, even though much of the work can certainly be done online or via email, and lockdowns have, without a doubt, slowed down business. Smith is careful to note, however, that the market was already on a downturn before COVID-19 hit, merely speeding up and exacerbating an impending recession. Two important factors in the downturn were falling inventory and insufficient construction.

While a vaccine can help open up agents, buyers, and sellers to safely meet up and discuss business, the underlying causes still need to be addressed, and people will need time and government intervention to recover their finances. This places recovery almost certainly later than mid-2021, and very likely further out. Fortunately, low interest rates mean buyer purchasing power will be relatively high once they regain their financial stability, meaning home prices aren’t likely to suffer as long as interest rates remain low.

Photo by Jens Behrmann on Unsplash

More: https://journal.firsttuesday.us/the-votes-are-in-housing-market-slated-for-a-late-recovery/71917/

What You Should Know About Credit Inquiries

Any time your credit report is reviewed, a credit inquiry is automatically added to your report. Your personal credit report lists all these inquiries for two years. There are two main types of credit inquiries: a hard inquiry, also called a hard pull, and a soft inquiry or soft pull. There are also personal credit inquiries.

Applying for credit or doing something that requires a credit check, such as applying for phone service, renting, or possibly taking a job, triggers a hard pull. Establishing business credit for the first time will do this. A hard inquiry reduces your credit score by up to five points, albeit usually for a short time. Sometimes multiple inquiries within a short period, such as looking for the best rates for auto insurance or a mortgage over 30 days, counts as only a single hard inquiry. Be cautious about multiple hard pulls in a short time, though. Lenders can see hard inquiries on your report and tend to interpret this behavior as high risk.

When you receive a pre-approved credit offer, chances are there was a soft inquiry on your credit report. Businesses use these to know your credit score for promotional information, as do banks and lenders to review your account to see if you qualify for new offers. These usually happen without your knowledge, though you can see them on your personal credit score. Fortunately, others cannot see them and they have no effect on your credit score. In addition, although applying for rent usually triggers a hard pull, renters can sometimes request a soft pull themselves to be sent to their landlord to avoid a hard pull. You can call us for more information about requesting a soft pull as a renter.

A personal credit inquiry is how you see all the information about your credit report. Your credit score and all inquiries, hard and soft, are visible to you at any time, and you can request your report for free once per 12 months at https://www.annualcreditreport.com/index.action. This is a good idea before applying for credit and also periodically to make sure it’s accurate and up to date. Visit the credit reporting agency’s website if you encounter an error.

More: https://www.sba.gov/blogs/credit-inquiries-what-you-should-know-about-hard-and-soft-pulls

COVID-19: A boon for the rural real estate market?

As we recover from COVID-19, experts are saying it may benefit the rural real estate market. California Association of Realtors deputy chief economist Jordan Levine explains why. Levine notes that rural housing is generally more affordable, which may become one of the most important decision factors as people are recovering from temporary unemployment and business losses. In addition, more and more businesses are looking at a work-from-home model, which will enable employees to live away from urban commercial centers and not have to commute long distance to work.

Real estate personnel working in rural areas seem to agree. Cindy Young, president of Shasta Association of Realtors, predicted an increase in business since their first virtual meeting after the stay-at-home order. Real estate agent Sandy Dole, who works in Shasta County, didn’t experience any drop at all and is actually on pace to surpass last year.

Despite all this, the outbreak did mean California’s market overall experienced its worst month-to-month decline in over forty years. The crisis isn’t over, even in rural areas like Shasta County. The overall market is expected to be sluggish for the next couple of months, with no solid predictions beyond then. Market declines invariably mean lower prices, at least in some areas, while others perform better.

If you’re thinking of buying or selling, and are looking for a good price on a comfortable rural home, send us a note on our contact form, or give us a call. We are active agents throughout California. At the moment, we are seeing some very attractive properties in Ventura and San Diego counties.

Photo by Karol Kaczorek on Unsplash (cropped)

$ Money Matters $

The Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed) moved to lower the federal funds rate by a half-point to a range of 1% to 1.25% March 3 in response to the “evolving risks” of the COVID-19 corona virus outbreak. The Fed doesn’t directly impact housing loans, but they generally move in tandem.

Mortgage rates in the U.S. roughly track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note which has been dropping as the corona virus epidemic expanded. As the yield on the 10-year note drops, there is typically a drop in mortgage interest rates.

Yesterday, purchasers and refinance borrowers were looking at rates of about 3.7%. Today that’s about 3.5%. Some lenders are forecasting that rates could drop as low as 3% before COVID-19 is controlled.

Some analysts report that the stock market anticipates a least a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s meeting in April.

Around the world some other central banks have dropped rates as well. Since consumer spending is a large measure of our economys, there is reason to press for more cuts.

In the words of the President, @realDonaldTrump, “The Federal Reserve is cutting but … more easing and cutting!”

Photo by Vladimir Solomyani on Unsplash

Salad as the Main Course

My favorite meal is a fresh salad, transformed to a main course with the addition of a grilled, or roasted, or sauteed piece of meat or seafood. This recipe is a more sophisticated version, with colorful and tasty endive taking the place of standard greens.

Salmon is a great go-to for this dish. If you’re not fond of the taste, or it isn’t readily available, there are several delicious options. Mahi-mahi or rockfish work well, as will chicken breast, or even scallops. The goal is the freshness of the salad combined with the hearty flavor of your meat, poultry or seafood.

Ingredients

3 heads red Belgian endive
3 heads Belgian endive
2 crisp and juicy apples
Juice of 1/2 Meyer lemon
2 cups (2-3 oz.) of frisée and/or arugula greens, torn to bite-size
1/2 cup walnut halves or pieces, toasted
6 tbsp. white vinaigrette dressing (recipe below)
1 tsp. finely cut chives
4 fillets of a firm fish, e.g., salmon, mahi mahi, or rockfish

White vinaigrette dressing
1/4 cup white balsamic vinegar or fresh lemon juice
1 tbsp Dijon mustard
1/4 shallot, peeled and minced
2 tsp. honey (optional)
1 pinch finely chopped garlic
3/4 cup extra virgin olive oil
Salt and pepper, to taste

Instructions

Salad
Wash and dry endive and apples. Cut endives lengthwise into julienne strips. Slice apples and cut into julienne strips. (If made in advance, you can preserve the color of the apple with a spritz of lemon juice.) Tear the frisée and/or arugula greens into bite-size pieces. Set aside.

White balsamic vinaigrette dressing
In a bowl or large measuring cup, whisk together all the vinaigrette ingredients and set aside.

Salmon: Heat olive oil in a sauté pan over medium-high heat. Score skin and season fish with salt and pepper. Place skin-side down in hot oil. Cook until skin is crispy, shaking pan to prevent fish from sticking. Turn fish over and continue cooking until medium rare. Remove and keep warm. (Alternatively, salmon may be grilled or baked.)

In a large bowl, combine endives, apples, greens, walnuts and vinaigrette, tossing gently. Season to taste and center on plate. Top the salad serving with one fillet each and sprinkle with chopped chives.

Photo by Jason Briscoe on Unsplash

Pundit Quotes on the 2020 Real Estate Market

Usually this time of year I stick my neck out and make some forecasts about the local market in the coming year. What I’ve discovered is my quotes are boring by comparison to those made by the pundits. So, this year I decided to publish some of the more exciting projections by people who claim to know what’s going on.

Let’s set the stage by noting that the real estate market has been notoriously stable for the past few years. Stable, and on a very slight decline. The charts have shown volume and prices all within the normal range, with tiny losses increasing as time goes on. Several pundits have pointed to these stats and projected a recession on the horizon.

At the same time, as I point out in another article, this is a presidential election year. Can anyone remember an election year when the economy failed? It doesn’t happen very often. Let’s look at some quotes.

“Were we to have a recession, I’d argue housing would provide a cushion because the shortage of supply at the entry-level suggests builders could actually continue to build.”
Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist

Well now, I know quite a few builders and developers. But, I don’t know any who will start a project when prices start dropping. As a theory it sounds great, but I think it needs further study.

“While the housing crisis is still fresh on the minds of many, and was the catalyst of the Great Recession, the U.S. housing market has weathered all other recessions since 1980.”
Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American

Kushi says, “…since 1980.” So he had to look back 40 years to find good news?!?!

“Housing people are the most optimistic people, but it takes a lot of optimism to buy a house and tie up your income for 30 years.”
Nela Richardson, investment strategist at Edward Jones.

He’s right, at least as far as purchasers would go. Most tenants wouldn’t be very optimistic after renting for 30 years.

“The vast majority of housing economists project that mortgage rates will remain below 4% in 2020.”
Jacob Passy, personal-finance reporter for MarketWatch

Ha! Like we’re going to see the Fed argue with President Trump! He tweeted and they gave. It’s an election year!

“In the Los Angeles metropolitan area (which includes Orange County), the share of homes that sold for more than the listed price dropped from nearly 35 percent in 2018 to 28 percent in 2019.”
Elijah Chiland, reporter for Curbed, Los Angeles

There is a large difference between our little corner of the world here in 90277 and Los Angeles County in general, and it extends to the LA Metro and to California and to the nation as a whole. In 2019 only 17% of homes sold in 90277 sold for over asking. It is different here. Many brokers/agents have found that the statistics generated by state and national pundits are simply not applicable in the Beach Cities.

Here’s CAR betting on a positive market for the year! It’s an election year, and I can see this happening!

2019 vs 2020 in 90277

Last year saw property prices in 90277 drift down a little. Looking at a five year picture of shifting prices we see that from 2014 to 2018 there was a clear upward trajectory. By the end of 2019 the average price had dropped and the median price followed.

The final numbers for 2019 show the decline continuing and even growing. The median was only down .4%, but the average was down 7.1%, an even larger drop than projected for the fourth quarter of the year.

On a more positive note, 2019 showed a 16% increase in sales volume for 90277.

The downward shift in prices and upward trend in volume of sales are consistent with the overall greater South Bay area. The upper end of the local market is showing signs of having reached an apex in prices, which has stimulated more listings and more sales.

At the same time, the moderate and lower priced neighborhoods have maintained price increases. Prices of lower priced homes are still climbing, but at a slower rate. Sales on the other hand, declined from 2018, or were unchanged.

So what’s the outlook for 2020? To get an early look, we compared January 2019 to January 2020. The statistics show both prices and sales climbing. Sales for the month were 22% greater than January last year. Average prices increased by 14.7%, while median prices were up 5.9%.

All right, so things are looking pretty good, at least in the Beach Cities/South Bay area. But, let’s face it. This is an election year. The status of everything is subject to change in mere seconds, based on the latest poll/post/tweet hitting the internet. There’s not much we can do about the politics, but if you’re looking for a quick update on the real estate market, give us a call. Better yet, take out a free subscription to BeachChatter and we’ll send you a note to keep you abreast of the latest news. There should be a subscription form in the side column. And, we don’t sell your data!

Bœuf a la Bourguignon

First, how does one pronounce that impossible looking name? “Bœuf,” French for “beef,” sounds like a cross between “bif” and “buff.” Say it quickly and you’ll be close enough. “Bourguignon” is bu̇r-gēn-ˈyȯn. Just remember that the letters “g-n” are pronounced in French as though they were “n-y.”

But, you don’t need to pronounce it to love it. This is the dish Julia Child described as”…certainly one of the most delicious beef dishes concocted by man.” This version is considerably simpler than that in Julia’s landmark book, “Mastering the Art of French Cooking.”

Remember to use a good wine—a bad wine doesn’t improve with cooking.

This recipe can be adapted for a slow-cooker. Before loading up the pot, be sure to brown the ingredients as noted here. All ingredients can be added at the beginning except the mushrooms, which should be added at the end.

Ingredients

3 tablespoons olive oil
3 pounds boneless beef rump roast, cut into 1-inch pieces
12 ounces button mushrooms (trimmed), halved or quartered if large
Coarse salt and ground pepper
5 strips bacon, cut into 1/2-inch pieces
1 white onion, coarsely chopped
1 tablespoon tomato paste
2 tablespoons all-purpose flour
3 cups dry red wine
2 cups beef stock
2 bay leaves
4 garlic cloves, smashed and peeled
4 carrots, peeled and cut into 1-inch pieces
10 ounces pearl onions, peeled
1 tablespoon butter, cut into pieces
2 tablespoons fresh parsley, chopped (optional)

Process

Preheat oven to 350 degrees.
In a large Dutch oven or oven-safe pot with a tight fitting lid, heat 2 tablespoons oil over medium-high. Add mushrooms and pearl onions. Cook until browned, about 10 minutes, then set aside.
Season beef generously with salt and pepper and add to pot. In batches, brown beef on all sides, 2 to 3 minutes per batch (adding up to 1 tablespoon oil per batch, if needed); transfer to plate.
Pour off all but 1 tablespoon fat from pot. Add bacon and chopped onion. Cook over medium heat until brown, about 5 minutes.
Add tomato paste; cook, stirring, for about 30 seconds.
Add flour and cook, stirring, 30 seconds.
Return beef to pot; add wine, broth, bay leaf, and garlic. Bring to a boil, cover, and transfer pot to oven; cook 1 1/2 hours.
Add carrots and cook until meat is very tender, 1 to 1 1/2 hours more, adding mushrooms 15 minutes before end of cooking.
Stir butter into stew and serve topped with parsley.

Serve spooned over noodles, rice or mashed potatoes, or even a baguette.

Adapted from Martha Stewart’ version of Julia Child’s quintessential recipe. Wine photo by Lefteris kallergis on Unsplash. Food photo by unknown.

ADUs and Rent Control

We had a call recently asking how California’s new statewide rent cap laws impact homeowners who are supplementing their income by renting out an Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU). The primary concern was, “Is the owner forced to keep a tenant or pay relocation if they decide to quit renting?”

The question stems from what is called the “just cause requirements” of the new rent control law. Our client was concerned about a decision to evict the current tenant and allow a grandchild to occupy the ADU while attending school locally. If “just cause” applied, it would require they provide relocation assistance to their current tenant.

Renting a part of your home, whether a single room or an entire “guest cottage” may be excluded from the law.

To answer the question, we reviewed the rent cap legislation with an eye to what terms would control should a homeowner need to evict tenants from an ADU.

Applicability of “just cause” relocation assistance, and the rent cap of 5% plus the local Consumer Price Index (CPI) both rely on the same tests.

The first of those tests is the type of property. Multi-family dwellings, i.e., everything from apartment buildings down to duplexes are included in the scope of the law. SFRs though, are excluded, and most importantly, an SFR with an ADU qualifies as an SFR and may be excluded if the second test is also met.

The second test relates to the owner of the property. The following owner types are always included within the scope of the law:
— A real estate investment trust, as defined in Section 856 of the Internal Revenue Code.
— A corporation.
— A limited liability company in which at least one member is a corporation.

The bottom line is that “mom and pop” operations do not fall under the rent cap or the just cause eviction sections of the new laws. There is a caveat! You must notify your tenants!

At the time the lease is signed, tenants should be provided written notice that the residential real property is exempt from this section using the following statement: “This property is not subject to the rent limits imposed by Section 1947.12 of the Civil Code and is not subject to the just cause requirements of Section 1946.2 of the Civil Code. This property meets the requirements of Sections 1947.12 (c)(5) and 1946.2 (e)(7) of the Civil Code and the owner is not any of the following: (1) a real estate investment trust, as defined by Section 856 of the Internal Revenue Code; (2) a corporation; or (3) a limited liability company in which at least one member is a corporation.”

Here is a link to the legislation in question:
https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billCompareClient.xhtml?bill_id=201920200AB1482

Prices Soften in South Bay

Here we wrap up 2019 and prepare for 2020, with a tumultuous election at hand and threats of an economic slowdown rearing in the local news. Our first thought is to look for a baseline from which to measure all the changes. So we did some research and assembled actual sales data from the last few years here in LA’s South Bay. Let’s walk, quickly, past some history.

Through 2015 nearly all real estate only became more expensive. Regardless of where you were in the country, or what kind of property you were considering, prices were only going one direction–up. Then, in 2016 the real estate world started changing. Our little corner of the the west coast is no exception. While some areas stand out as successes, others are showing signs of stress.

Torrance prices in the selected zip codes were varied, ranging from a low of 0% in 90505 for 2018 up to a high of 10.2% in 90503 for 2017. You read that correctly–Torrance prices have not gone negative yet! North Redondo Beach has also run positive every year, though 2019 looks like it will end with a mere .7% increase for the current year.

**Hermosa Beach** dropped a bit of value last year and is projected to lose again this year.

Manhattan Beach is a star performer, with average sales prices consistently above $2,000,000. Surprisingly, the city with the largest average increases is Hermosa Beach, with a price increase of 27.6% in 2015 and another huge price jump 0f 14% in 2017. Both cities declined in 2018 and 2019. Manhattan Beach was down by -1.7% and -2.6%, respectively. Hermosa Beach dropped by -1.6% and -1.0%, respectively.

**Manhattan Beach** showed exceptionally strong sales only in 2017, with 7 sales on The Strand. In 2018, prices declined slightly, and are projected to decline slightly in 2019.

While Manhattan and Hermosa were making one or two big jumps, south Redondo plugged away with annual increases between 8% and 10% until 2019. Unless something big happens in the final quarter of the year, 90277 will drop by about -6% this year.

After 4 years of increases, **south Redondo Beach** is slated to lose ~6% this year.

San Pedro has turned in a solidly positive set of numbers, too. The 90731 zip code is poised to show a 2.0% increase for 2019, down from a high of 7.5% in 2015. The 90732 zip code has slipped into negative territory with a forecast drop of -1.5% this year. Prior years have been over 8% increases, demonstrating the desirability of those harbor and ocean views.

**San Pedro**‘s 90731 has remained in positive increases to date.

The Palos Verdes Peninsula has proven to be quite a “mixed bag” of ups and downs in average sales prices. Rancho Palos Verdes followed a predictable path of gradual increases up to 6.2% in 2018, with a projected decrease of -2.0% this year. The 90274 zip code was all over the map though. It started with an 8.4% increase in 2015, dropped into negative territory the following year with a -4.7%, then dropped another -.8% in 2017, only to jump up by 8.7% in 2018. We’re currently forecasting a 1.5% increase in those prices for 2019.

If you live in the 90274 zip, and are interested in values, give us a call. We are working on a more detailed analysis of where and why distinct PV neighborhoods are seeing values shift on a differing pace. It’s very possible the age of homes in parts of the 90274 zip has pushed them into a “sweet spot” for upgrade or redevelopment. Alternatively, there could pockets not impacted by the economics of the greater community.

Check your city on the chart above. Are your property values still climbing? Or have they already hit the top and started back down?

Recession Chatter

The New York Federal Reserve Bank shows a probability of 33% for a recession to strike in the next 12 months.

A recent Zillow survey of economists and other experts predicts a 52% chance of recession by the end of 2019 and a 73% chance of recession by the end of 2020.

Morgan Stanley economist Chetan Ahya estimates that the trade war with China and threatened increased tariffs, “could wind up in a global recession in about three quarters.”

Sounds very ominous. Of course, the fact it does sound ominous reinforces our tendency to talk about it. Then repeatedly hearing the conversation inflates the concern in our minds. Per Citigroup CEO Michael Corbat, the single biggest threat to the U.S. economy is, “Our ability to talk ourselves into the next recession.” (A Reuters article in April discussed ways in which those in the investment industry avoid using the ‘R word’ to minimize concerns on the part of investors.)

So what prompted this forecast of recession?

One of the key indicators used by many is the ‘inverted yield spread,’ also known as an “inverted yield curve.” Campbell Harvey, a Duke University finance professor first linked yield curve inversions to recessions in the mid-1980s. An inversion lasting three months has preceded the last seven recessions, per Harvey. “From the 1960s, this indicator has been reliable in terms of foretelling a recession, and also importantly, it has not given any false signals yet,” he said.

Without going into a lot of detail, a simple way to think of the inverted yield is this: Typically, a short term loan carries a lower interest rate than a long term loan. It’s logical, in that we are much better at forecasting events over a short term like three months, than we are over a long term, like 10 years. And that is exactly what changed late in March of 2019. It became cheaper to borrow for ten years, than for three months. It was the first time since mid-2007 that the yield curve had flipped.

Whether now or later, it is inevitable that a recession will come. That’s the way our economic system works. And preparing for the inevitable is simply wise. We recommend you evaluate your financial position in light of the possibilities and plan to protect your assets. If we can help with real estate information and valuation, don’t hesitate to call.

Ibuyers: Are they Worth the Cost?

iBuyers, instant Buyers, internet Buyers, investor Buyers …

Today, large online real estate service companies are repositioning themselves as investors. These services, like Opendoor, Offerpad, Zillow Offers and Redfin Now, have become known as iBuyers. With their own in-house brokerage services, they handle the entire transaction in an effort to appeal to sellers who want to sell their home with zero hassle. The process essentially eliminates agents who aren’t directly affiliated with the iBuyer companies, automatically reducing the ibuyer’s cost.

Strategically, ibuyers strive to make the initial offer somewhat close to market value. Some, like ZillowOffers, encourage sellers to request value estimates from real estate agents, to provide more assurance of the value. All will inspect the property and adjust the contract price, typically after a contract has been signed. This varies slightly from the normal sales process in that a conventional buyer will have viewed the home prior to making an offer, and incorporated the general condition of the home into the offer price.

“…an ibuyer is purely investment oriented and won’t negotiate.”

There is typically little negotiating room with ibuyers. There will be an inspection and the recommended repairs are priced out and subtracted from the initial offer on a “best and final” basis. Unlike a broker assisted sale where the buyer is emotionally involved, an ibuyer is purely investment oriented and won’t negotiate.

To the ibuyer, the ideal situation is to represent the seller and themselves. The seller is happy because it was quick and easy. The next step for the ibuyer is to make the repairs and list it for sale at an increase in price, once again trying to be the sole broker on the transaction. One could think of it as the real estate version of a vertical market. The ibuyer acts as the listing agent, the buyer, the buyers agent, the investor, and the ‘fix-n-flip’ contractor instead of having separate professionals for each step.

“It’s a sweet deal–for the ibuyer.”

It’s a sweet deal–for the ibuyer. Savings include sales commissions, much of the closing cost, and contractor profit margins. On the flip side of the ledger, the income includes “service fees” charged to the seller, usually in the 7% to 7.5% range, well above the highest real estate broker commissions. Some studies estimate that the final cost to the ibuyer is 15-20% below market value.

Clearly, sellers who use iBuyers end up netting less money, either through a below market purchase price or the higher fees compared to a traditional brokered sale. Is it worth the higher cost to avoid the hassle of making improvements, preparing the home to sell, and keeping it clean long enough to find a buyer who plans to live in the home?

“…it should not be the only option considered.”

When a home is severely outdated or dilapidated and the seller is unable to make improvements, an ibuyer may be the best option. Or, when the market is slow and it’s imperative that the home be sold promptly, an ibuyer may be a good solution. Under any circumstances, it’s certainly one more source to complete a sale. Given the size of the transaction and the cost involved, it should not be the only option considered.

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Instructions

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Recipe Preparation