The original BeachChatter discusses the housing market in the coastal communities south of the city of Los Angeles. Some articles are peculiar to a single city. Some discuss the region as a whole. The focus is on privately owned housing.
Many people are blindsided by rising mortgage rates after getting a preapproval, thinking that the preapproval has locked their rate. It hasn’t. The first opportunity to lock your mortgage rate happens when your final loan application is approved, though you don’t even have to lock it until shortly before closing on a purchase, if you think rates will go down. In addition, the lock period is not indefinite. It usually lasts anywhere from 15 to 60 days, and it could definitely take longer than that to find a home.
There are ways to mitigate the issues presented by shifting mortgage rates. Rates don’t tend to change much during a typical closing period, but you want to lock early when rates are rising and late when rates are falling. Consider budgeting for a loan lower than your preapproved amount in order to account for fluctuations in mortgage rates. Different lenders also have different locking policies. Make sure to shop around and ask about lock periods, renewing options for locked rates, and the possibility of locking out rising rates but not falling rates.
February sales data carried a surprise for South Bay residents. With fewer monthly sales than last year, the median price for PV homes sold has made a huge jump. The average number of homes sold on the Hill in 2021 was 88, and December recorded 87 sales. January saw 47 sales and February 60. At the same time the sales volume was dropping, the median sales price jumped by over 33%! (Details at Median Prices below.)
Sales in the Harbor area were up 5% from last month. Increased real estate activity and prices in the Harbor have been anticipated for some time now and are gradually coming to fruition. The multi-billion dollar investment in the West Harbor commercial development has spawned a number of smaller development projects throughout San Pedro. On the east side, Long Beach has been steadily adding infrastructure across much of the city. The net result is improved real estate markets across the Harbor area.
The number of homes sold in the Beach cities was essentially flat with 75 sold in January and 76 in February. This is however significantly down from the average monthly sales of 159 units in 2021, and from the December sales of 132 units. In a unique twist, the drop in sales volume is a return to sales numbers we were experiencing before the Covid19 pandemic.
In a further shift downward, Inland home sales dropped off from an average of 168 in 2021 and a total of 160 homes sold in December. January fell to 119 and February fell again to 105 homes sold. A modest decline in sales volume is expected during the winter months. Once again, as we saw at the Beach, we’re seeing the same return to pre-pandemic numbers for Inland home sales. One could almost think things are normal again.
Median Prices Going Up, Up & Up
Take a look at what’s happening with PV prices. That yellow line on the chart below shows an explosion in median prices on the Hill. Pre-pandemic, the median was just under $1.5M. January it was $1.7M–February it’s $2.3M.
We found that 19 newly constructed residences have been sold at the Rolling Hills Country Club development over the past six months. Those homes sold for a median price of $4.1M, boosting the median dramatically and adding $80M to cumulative sales for the Hill.
The median for Beach cities home sales is up $100K from January and stands at $1.6M, up from the pre-pandemic median of $1.3M. Harbor area and Inland prices are similarly up showing signs of a pending correction from the overly enthusiastic bidding wars of the past couple years.
We anticipate a leveling of the median prices across the South Bay, with the exception of unique circumstances like new construction at the Rolling Hills Country Club. As the Federal Reserve Bank increases interest rates, some buyers will drop out of the market. Sales are expected to slow while time on the market expands and prices contract.
Cumulative Home Sales Dollars
We wrote above about the steep yellow line for sales on the Hill. If nothing else, adding $60M to the monthly sales total should serve to demonstrate that if someone will build homes, they will sell.
The Beach and Harbor areas are both up about $20M over January numbers. Although slower than it was last year, the demand for housing is still strong.
Inland total sales dollars are down $6M for the month of February. Occasionally we see February sales totals drop from January, however it’s rare. We suspect the sales decline for the Inland area is a harbinger of the future for all of the South Bay.
The Statistics
As usual we’ll close with the statistics for last month as compared to the prior month and compared to the same month last year. The negative numbers (red) will quickly show that Inland home sales declined from January to February. Glancing at the other areas, we can see the Beach area volume was a mere 1% growth, while the Harbor showed strong sales and PV went through the roof compared to prior month.
Three red blocks jump out comparing to February of 2021. This is not surprising considering we were well into a panic buying season this time last year. This is reminiscent of most months in 2021 when we were able to only compare to the prior month because of Covid-contaminated statistics.
The strong Harbor area performance stands out here. A 4% gain over last year versus a 30% drop in volume at the Beach is certainly something to watch next month!
Some routine expenses may not seem like they’ll break your bank individually, but they aren’t just one-off expenses, and there’s often a cheaper way. You may notice these things more easily if you record your budget in a spreadsheet. This is a good practice for tax season anyway, and it could open your eyes to a whole lot of unnecessary spending.
Many people start their work day by grabbing a cup of coffee from someplace like Starbucks or a donut shop, then at lunch time, pick up a ready-made sandwich. Both of these things can be done at home. It takes more time, but it doesn’t have to get in the way of your morning, and it’s far cheaper. The coffee machine can be prepped at night and turned on when you wake up, and you can prepare and bag a sandwich in the evenings as well. You can also probably save on groceries by creating a list and sticking to it. Impulse buys are not uncommon, and while you may simply start adding some of these items to your list, they probably won’t all make it there. Another cost saving measure, this time unrelated to food, is ditching cable service. Streaming services can cover the same channels for a fraction of the cost.
The results of a November 2021 survey of real estate professionals about the 2022 forecast are in, and they’re rather split. 41% expect prices to continue to rise and 41% expect them to fall. The remaining 18% predict prices will remain about where they are. Keep in mind, though, the survey was conducted a few months ago and may not reflect experts’ current beliefs. In addition, all of those who predicted continued rise in price conceded that the rate of increase will probably be slower.
There are a few factors pointing to slowdown, whether it’s a decline or a slower rise in home prices. Interest rates are increasing, which decreases buyer demand and buyer purchasing power, pulling down prices. The job recovery is still lagging behind. Forbearance exits mean greater inventory. Even global events are threatening to destabilize the economy, and uncertain buyers makes for less frequent buyers.
Most people who have been paying attention to real estate are aware that the construction industry has been struggling lately. But there’s one area where the industry is doing just fine, and that’s townhouses. Townhouse construction dropped in 2020 along with everything else, but it’s already recovered and is now above pre-pandemic levels. It seems townhouses are simply in fashion right now, as they feel like single-family homes — and are considered as such by some categorization methods — but are generally less expensive.
The truth is a little more complex, though. In reality, townhome construction has been on the rise for about a decade, and 2020 was merely a small dip — which also happened in 2011 and 2012. Perhaps townhome construction specifically was largely unaffected by the most recent recession, and this is just a continuation of the trend. It was actually the Great Recession in the latter half of the 2000s that caused townhome construction to plummet, and it’s been steadily recovering ever since. It’s not quite back at 2006 levels, slightly lower than the 2005 peak, but it’s not far off.
Almost everyone has a few smoke detectors and a fire extinguisher somewhere in their home. If you don’t, you definitely should, and are required to by law in California. Unfortunately, that’s as much care as many people take in their fire safety. That may not be enough.
Smoke detectors should be spaced around your home so that they can be heard regardless of where you are. California requires smoke detectors in certain areas of the home. This includes every bedroom, every hallway that leads to a bedroom, and at least one per floor in a living area. Check to make sure that you are conforming to code, and that your smoke detectors have working batteries. If your home is large, you may also want to consider additional smoke detectors above the minimum requirements to cover more area.
Homes are only required by law to have one fire extinguisher. However, this is the bare minimum and not ideal. You want to have easy access to a fire extinguisher regardless of where you are. The suggested number is one per floor. If you live in a multi-family building, every unit should have easy access to a fire extinguisher. This doesn’t necessarily need to be inside the unit, if there are hallways with access to multiple units. But having just one for the entire building isn’t a good idea, even if there are only a few units.
Technology has made it easier than ever to secure a tenant for your rental property, as long as you’re making good use of the technology. There are several websites that you can use to help spread the word about your listing. Some of these are websites you may use already for other purposes, and others are specific to real estate. You can even create your own website, though you’ll have to make sure people find out about it.
There’s a number of websites that allow you or your agent to list properties for rent. There’s the local MLS, which would need to be accessed by your agent, but this will also spread to aggregator sites like Zillow and Redfin. Alternatively, you can post to Zillow and Redfin yourself. Other similar websites include Zumper, HotPads, and ListHub. Make sure to verify the information after a property is listed, since automated systems can get things wrong. In your descriptions, include certain frequently searched keywords, like the school district, amenities, area, and some basic features.
Email campaigns still work, but it’s not the only way to expand your reach. Social media websites are excellent at this. It’s especially necessary if you’ve created your own website. The obvious ones include Facebook and Twitter. perhaps less obviously, you can post pictures or videos of your property on Pinterest and Instagram. You can also reach out to your network on LinkedIn.
Airbnb is a commonly used method for vacation-goers to find lodgings. It’s usually — though not always — cheaper than a hotel, and often significantly more flexible and easier to book. All of this makes it attractive to people going on vacation. But what about the other party? Is Airbnb a good investment over traditional income property? Well, that depends.
If your property is in a heavily touristy location, it can probably earn quite a bit as an Airbnb rental. Part of this is the per night costs, which add up quickly if you have guests most nights. In addition, cancellations aren’t as backbreaking as losing a tenant. However, overhead costs may be higher, with Airbnb taking a cut and the high likelihood that you’ll be paying for utilities and housekeeping. You don’t want long periods of inactivity with high overhead costs. Unfortunately, such periods are likely because vacations are frequently seasonal.
We’re currently either at or approaching the top of the market, which means it’s generally not a good time to buy. Sometimes it’s inevitable, but that just means you need to be prepared for losses if you don’t keep your home long enough to gather equity. When you buy at the top of the market, your home’s value will go down before it goes up, so you’ll need to wait a while in order to sell at a profit.
If you’re an investor, don’t look at flipping right now. It’s just not going to provide the return on investment that you want, especially with construction costs being high. Instead, look at purchasing rental property, as rent prices are also on the rise. You can collect rental income now and sell much later down the line when the cycle completes itself.
For many people, their goal is to pay off their mortgage so that they can continue to live in their home without any more mortgage payments to make after retirement. This is certainly a good financial decision, but with a bit more planning, it could be made even better. Consider downsizing going into retirement. You may even be able to sell your home and purchase a smaller, cheaper home without a mortgage at all.
That’s not the only way smaller homes are cheaper. Insurance and tax payments would also be lower. Smaller space generally means less utility usage. A smaller home probably won’t have a pool to maintain and may not have much lawn or garden space to take care of. Money isn’t the only thing you’ll save, either; you’ll also spend less time cleaning and maintaining your home. With the time and money you’ll save, you’ll also have the opportunity to take more vacations and relax even further.
Home offices have become more popular as more people are transitioning to work-from-home. This has increased the popularity of larger homes with additional space that can be used for a home office. But a home office doesn’t actually require that much space, and certainly doesn’t need its own room, unless you need privacy.
If you have an attic or basement, either of these spaces can be converted into a home office. Converting the attic can even add to your home’s value, and an office space probably won’t even take up the entire basement. Another feature your home may have is a breakfast nook. Often, this is superfluous and the same purpose is served by a dinner table. It would not be difficult to convert the breakfast nook into an office space. Even if your home doesn’t have any of these features, you can probably find an unused corner of a bedroom or the living room to put a small desk and a chair.
The commercial real estate market has been experiencing mixed performances, with some sectors doing better than others. That’s not about to change any time soon. The industrial sector is still going strong, the retail sector continues its recovery, and the office sector keeps lagging behind.
Already low vacancy rates in industry have dropped to near-zero, as what few vacancies remain are completely unusable. New construction isn’t focusing on the industrial sector, except in the Inland Empire, which nevertheless still has a mere 0.9% vacancy rate, down from 3.1% in 2020. San Diego has the highest vacancy rate in Southern California at 2.3%. In the retail sector, the vacancy rate didn’t change much, only increasing 0.2% in San Diego from 4.7% to 4.9%. However, the availability rate — which includes all properties on the market, whether vacant or currently leased — dropped from 6% to 5%. It’s likely that this is representative of off-market leases. Offices are still struggling, with vacancy rates above 12% and availability rates around 17%. The solution to the office problem will probably come in the form of conversions to residential or mixed-use property, which are far more in demand than office space.
As of the end of last week, the average 30-year FRM rate is at 3.69%. It’s been steadily increasing since the historic lows of 2020. The ARM and 10-year Treasury Note rates also increased between January and February. Periods of historic lows followed by steady increases aren’t necessarily unexpected, though. That’s been the trend for at least the past three decades — ups and downs but a clear overall downward trend. Precipitous drops have tended to result in a period of reduced average. For the past decade it has averaged somewhere around 4%, but it’s unclear whether the sharp decline in 2019-2020 will result in a reduced average for the coming future.
What may prevent a reduced average is the Fed’s plans for the future. Their gradual reduction of purchases of mortgage-backed bonds (MBBs) has kept mortgage rates relatively stable. They will cease buying MBBs entirely in March, at which point they will begin increasing their benchmark rate throughout 2022. This is going to result in higher interest rates. With the rate already approaching 4%, the increasing rates will likely result in the average going above 4% and continuing the trend of the past decade.
While homebuyers don’t necessarily have the experience to know everything they should be considering when buying a home, they definitely know what they want. It may not be easy or even possible to match all the criteria at once, but there are several top priorities buyers look for in an ideal home. These are the factors buyers typically tell their agents they’re considering most.
The first is safety. Buyers will usually research a specific area’s crime rate before considering it, though if they don’t have a predetermined idea of which area they want to live in, they may not know all of the crime rates in various regions. You shouldn’t only rely on statistics, though. Go visit and see for yourself what the area is like. Spend some time there. If you don’t feel safe, you probably don’t want to live there, even if the crime rate doesn’t seem very high. Something else buyers want is proximity to work, friends and family, and community amenities. However, they also want to be careful to balance this with light traffic, while being close enough to main roads. There’s going to be some sacrifice made. Make the commute yourself before buying, instead of just looking at map data. Another extremely important factor for most buyers is having a good school system. It’s very difficult to enrolls your children in a school system outside of your school district, though it is technically possible. Buyers also want to make sure the area isn’t too expensive to live in outside of purchasing the home, meaning low cost of living and low local taxes.
As of the end of 2021, fewer buyers are choosing to waive contingencies than earlier in the year. This is a return to normalcy, as the frequency of waivers was inflated during the period of heavy competition. Buyers had sought to improve sellers’ perception of their offers by foregoing things such as inspections and appraisals in order to expedite the process. As competition dwindled, fewer buyers felt the need to do that. In addition, the appraisal process is starting to move faster with increased vaccination rates, and home prices remaining high means buyers want to make sure they’re getting their money’s worth.
The percent of people who did not waive any contingencies increased steadily from the trough of 21% in June to the peak in December of 40%. Inspection and appraisal contingencies were most often waived, though there are other types of contingencies. For waivers of inspection contingencies, the peak was 27% in July, down to 19% in November and December. The percent waiving appraisal contingencies decreased from 29% in June to 21% in November and December.
Most everyone has had the unfortunate experience of losing their house keys and being locked out of their home at least once. Some people end up having to break into their own home, which can cause some misunderstandings. Otherwise, you’ll have to call a locksmith, or have a spare key hidden somewhere. But you can avoid this entirely with an electronic or smart lock. Not only that, smart locks can also help you keep track of who comes and goes, and it’s much easier to change a smart lock code than a manual lock if it becomes necessary.
Not all electronic locks work the same way, though, and not all of them use smart technology. The most basic electronic locks just require a code to unlock the door. Some use a form of unique identification instead, such as fingerprints, RFID, or Bluetooth recognition. Smart locks have the potential to issue multiple codes to different people, and log which codes have been used when. You also need to make sure that if you plan to connect the lock to your phone, choose a smart lock that is compatible with your model. You should also look into what types of security measures the smart lock has.
More and more young adults are moving back in with family members after college. The assumption is that this is an economic necessity, as those saddled with debt are unable to buy a home. However, even if this is true at the time, it turns out it could be more temporary than expected. Many are transitioning directly into homeownership right after their stay, rather than having a period of renting as most people do.
About half of those living with parents or other family members are paying rent, but it’s likely less than actual market value, though this hasn’t been confirmed. The other half are staying rent free. In both cases, their expenses are much lower than if they were attempting to live on their own. That could be because they can’t afford it otherwise, but it’s also possible they would be able to afford getting their own place, but saving money helps them pay down debt or save up for a down payment. Of course, the vast majority of people — 73% — are still renters before they are buyers, but the percentage who lived with parents, relatives, or friends before buying their first home has increased from 12% to 21% over the past three decades.
Owning a home used to be a large part of the American Dream. Homeownership was considered a point of personal pride, signalling that you’ve achieved something that everyone in the US wants. It still demonstrates the same thing, that you are able to own a home, but nowadays the reasons are far more practical than simply pride.
In 2021, 43% of first-time homebuyers cited pride of ownership as the reason to buy. In 2022, though, this plummetted all the way down to 0%. Instead, investments took the #1 spot at 51%, though this was still important last year at 34%. Replacing that spot is reducing housing costs at 38% in 2022, a similar reason to 2021’s #3 spot, saving money, at 15%. Added to the 2022 list is social pressure at 11%.
January 2022 showed a different face than we were seeing all last year. Of course, in many respects that’s a good thing. Depending on whether you’re buying or selling, the real estate market for 2022 could be wonderful or horrible. As always, the location will make an even bigger difference.
Sales Volume Dropping
Check out all the red ink in the table below. Compared to December, sales volume is down by nearly 50% at the Beach and on the Hill. November and December of 2021 were heavy with transactions spurred on by the fear of increasing interest rates. The number of homes sold in comparison to January of last year also dropped, though not to as great an extent.
Sales volume down, prices up
As of right now interest rates are expected to hover in the 3.5% to 4% range for the balance of the year. The increase from under 3% to roughly 3.5% has served to lock a substantial portion of entry level buyers into the rental pool. Those who found a place and could afford to buy last year did. The first part of this year is expected to continue to show declining sales volume as many first time buyers drop out of the purchasing market.
Prices Starting to Reverse Direction
Prices meanwhile are faltering in the unsustainable march upward. As the table above shows, the Beach and the Inland areas have already begun declines in the median price. Simultaneously buyers in the Harbor and Palos Verdes communities have continued pushing purchase prices higher, though not nearly as fast as last year.
We expect price corrections in all four areas as the year rolls out. Initially, we anticipate buyers in the Inland and Harbor areas to balk at the combination of higher interest rates and historically higher prices. Lower priced homes are traditionally impacted sooner and to a greater degree by changes in mortgage interest.
Homes on the Palos Verdes Peninsula and in the Beach communities of the South Bay are expected to also experience price declines as the market adjusts to the new reality of higher prices, steeper interest rates and the shrinking impact of Covid.
The Covid Connection
Covid wreaked havoc with social lives, business practices and just about every other aspect of society. When the pandemic struck in 2020 the real estate world was already heated because of low interest rates. Unfortunately, protecting society from Covid meant slowing down much of the business world, including real estate transactions. For months agents were dealing with masks, alcohol gel and the task of wiping every surface touched by potential buyers. And the buyers kept coming because the interest rates made buying a home affordable for many.
By the time 2021 started, the industry had found ways to show property and ways to consummate paperwork with relative safety from Covid. Keeping one eye on the mortgage interest rate, the buying public responded promptly. It was one of the busiest years ever for brokers and agents. As the year ended and lenders continued raising the cost of purchase loans, buyers started showing signs of stress.
January appears to have been the fulcrum point for a shift in market dynamics. The people involved are more than ready for relief from Covid. Bidding wars have all but ended. Price reductions are coming after only a few weeks on the market. The State has declared Covid “endemic.” Essentially we’re ready for normal business.
The first month of the year has pointed in the direction of a slowing market, with some pricing shifts to compensate for over-exuberant purchases in the close out of 2021. We anticipate February to show more of the same. We’ll be back soon with charts comparing the monthly progress. (You’ll find the beginning charts for 2022 at the bottom. Not real exciting without data to compare.)
The High Sale and the Low Sale
We’ve had requests for a little “human interest” added to the dry statistics we throw out here every month. We’re going to try to do that while still maintaining privacy for the people involved. Let us know how we’re doing.
For example, an observation we made this past month was the highest sale versus the lowest sale as reported by TheMLS for January. Those of you who follow us know the Beach areas are invariably at the top of the chart, so you won’t be surprised to find that the highest sale in January was in the Manhattan Beach hill section. New in 2021, this expansive 6 bed, 6.5 bath home sold for $6.5M. At nearly 6500 square feet, that’s over $1,000 per sq ft.
It’s far from the highest price we’ve seen there, but that piqued our curiousity. So we looked to the other end and found the lowest January sale in our part of the South Bay. Down from 6500 sq ft to 400 sq ft, and from $6.5M to $255K, this studio condo in Long Beach calculates out to a hair over $600 per sq ft. In other words, about 60% of the cost to build new construction in Manhattan Beach.
2022 Charts – The Beginning Point
The first chart of the year is less than exciting. We’ve included them here for reference. In March, when we can compare January to February and we can be confident we are past the bulk of the pandemic, these should be much more interesting and informative.
April 2021 was one of the most fiercely competitive months for real estate in history, in no small part due to the pandemic frenzy. But spring is always one of the more active seasons in the real estate market, being right after the holidays. And this year is not going to be an exception.
What sparked so many bidding wars last year is high demand and low inventory, and neither of those things has changed. Inventory is still 43% below pre-pandemic levels, and there are still plenty of Millennials, as well as some Gen Z, aging into first-time homeownership. Where there is some difference is the current state of interest rates, but it’s still going to result in the same type of market. Last year, interest rates were staying low, so buyers knew it was a good time to buy. Now, interest rates are expected to increase throughout 2022. In the long term, this will reduce demand, but as long as the increases are expected and not already here, demand will go up as buyers want to take advantage of the rates before they increase.
