Pro Songwriters’ Showcase – July

PROJECT BARLEY BREWERY, 2308 Pacific Coast Hwy, , Lomita CA 90717
Tue, Jul 16 @ 7:00PM — 9:00PM

This is a once a month (every third Tuesday) show that is designed as a listening room for world class songwriters, many with hit songs, long touring/recording associations with music legends ETC… to play their original music in an intimate setting. NO COVER BUT DONATIONS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURED AND GO TO THE SONGWRITERS. Project Barley serves excellent Food (Gourmet Pizza, wings, sandwiches, salads), wine, and award winning beer. Food served till 8:30pm. No reservations so arrive early to get a table. This month we are proud to present: RICK SHEA, TONY GILKYSON, BRIAN WHELAN

RICK SHEA

Longtime Southern California singer-songwriter Rick Shea got his early musical education in the bars and honky-tonks of San Bernardino where he grew up. With ten critically acclaimed albums, he’s performed all over Southern California, the West Coast, the US and in Europe, and built a solid career for himself as a solo artist, singer, guitarist and songwriter. Shea’s songs reflect the folk, country, rock and Mexican influences he grew up with. “Songs tell our stories and our history and songs were how those stories were shared in the past, I like to continue that tradition.”

60 miles east of Los Angeles where the urban sprawl starts to thin out and the desert starts to take over sits the old railroad town of San Bernardino. Shea says, “Growing up there were a dozen or more honky-tonks and truck stop bars on the outskirts. They were kind tough places but as a sideman and singer I could work 6 – 7 nights a week. That’s where I first heard a lot of those old songs – Merle Haggard, Lefty Frizzell and Buck Owens – every night.”

Shea’s recently released album Love & Desperation has gained a lot of praise as have his earlier albums. He is a deeply evocative singer and a formidable guitarist who doubles on steel guitar and mandolin. On his songwriting influences Shea says, “When I was younger Merle Haggard cast a long shadow, but since then Dave Alvin, Jim Ringer and a lot of other music has found its way in.”

If your tastes run toward hard working, literate, back 40 folkies like Tom Russell, Chuck Pyle, Jimmie Dale Gilmore and others like that, Shea is sure to be another that you’re going to dig. With a very personal edge to his writing and singing, this is classic folkie/troubadour stuff that cuts right to the chase and delivers moves that others can only turn into clichés. Check it out, it’s the real deal. – Chris Spector MIDWEST RECORD

A hauntingly nostalgic vocalist, imperative guitarist and literate, detail-rich songwriter, do yourself a favor. – Gary von Tersch, Sing Out

TONY GILKYSON

Born in Hollywood and raised in an environment of musicians, songwriter–guitarist Tony Gilkyson originally started recording as a boy with his father, Terry Gilkyson, a composer for Walt Disney and a prominent folksinger/songwriter in his own right. Artists he has played and recorded with include Lone Justice, John Coinman, Jake LaBotz, Ray Wiley Hubbard, Bob Neuwirth, Sam Phillips, Duke McVinnie, Jimmie Dale Gilmore, Peter Rowan, Larry Hosford, Rick Shea, Dave Alvin, Kip Boardman, Alice Cooper, Bob Dylan, Kris Kristofferson, K.D. Lang, Mark Olsen, Shane MacGowan, Ramsey Midwood, Mike Stinson, The Spoolies, Randy Weeks and Kathleen Wilhoite. He has produced recordings for sister Eliza Gilkyson and Dances with Wolves author and poet Michael Blake. With Tom Waits, he co-produced Chuck E. Weiss’s albums Extremely Cool and Old Souls & Wolf Tickets. In 2003 he produced the acclaimed Country for True Lovers by Eleni Mandell. He also has played guitar on numerous film sound tracks including the Johnny Cash biopic Walk the Line, as well as The Big Lebowski, Don’t Come Knockin’ and All the King’ s Men, with producer T Bone Burnett.

BRIAN WHELAN

There’s nothing wrong with Americana. ​Brian Whelan’s refrain on the opening track of ​Sugarland ​immediately lets you know what the singer, songwriter, producer, sideman, and all-around utility savant is all about. The song is cheeky, fast, and pulls no punches. There’s plenty of façade in Whelan’s Los Angeles, but that’s not what he’s here for. He’s here for the tunes.

If you’re a frequenter of the Cinema Bar in Culver City, no doubt you know the name Brian Whelan. As a young musician with half a boot still in USC’s music program, Whelan found the bar, found his people, and found his scene. Further down the line, you’ve come across him shredding GOE Sundays at The Echo in Echo Park, singing originals that gets the packed room dancing as much as the covers he slays.

But the name was really made playing with country, rock, and Americana stars, such as Houston’s own Mike Stinson, Nashville roots godfather Jim Lauderdale, and Los Angeles rocker Chris Shiflett. Whelan put his unmistakable mark on the national scene as the prolific sideman behind urban cowboy Dwight Yoakam, playing guitar, keys, pedal steel, and anything else that was required or requested. From budding fan to established keystone, Whelan is now at the center of that Los Angeles Americana scene he discovered years ago.

Perhaps the most interesting quality in Whelan is the one not hidden, but bleeding through every second of the 33-minute ​Sugarland​: earnestness. It’s a trait Los Angeles is bereft of; a town that wrings the optimism out of every heartland kid with an eye on the screen or a guitar in the trunk of that car that carried them west. The driving guitar riffs, the soaring vocals, and the love-fueled lyrics that define Whelan’s solo songwriting endeavors aren’t contrived; they don’t come from a flavor of the week proclamation on pitchfork or the current Coachella lineup. Brian Whelan can do a lot of things, but there are two things he won’t do – boring and bullshit.

JODI SIEGEL

Jodi Siegel, originally from Chicago, IL, is a singer, songwriter and guitarist. Over the years Jodi has opened for and or shared the stage with many respected musicians including: Albert King, Robben Ford, Robert Cray, J.D. Souther, David Lindley, Fred Tacket and Paul Barrere (Little Feat) and countless others. Her songs have been recorded by Maria Muldaur, Marcia Ball, Tommy Ridgley and Teresa James.

She has recorded two CD’S; Stepping Stone and her latest CD, “Wild Hearts,” produced by Steve Postell (Immediate Family, David Crosby, Eric Johnson, Robben Ford, Iain Matthews), is filled with great songs, cool grooves, intimate, smart lyrics and some of the best of the best musicians in Los Angeles today including; Mike Finnigan (organ, piano), Hutch Hutchinson, Abe Laborial Sr., Alphonso Johnson (bass), Russ Kunkel, Michael Jerome Moore, John Ferraro, Arno Lucas (drums, percussion), Joe Sublett (Saxophone) and Maxayne Lewis and Clydene Jackson (background vocals). Each song has a soulful delivery with an undeniable down-home elegance. It has received great reviews by Patrick Simmons (Doobie Brothers), Maria Muldaur, Walter Trout, David Mansfield (T Bone Burnett), Leland Sklar, Mike Finnigan and Doug Macleod to name a few.

LA South Bay Real Estate in a Post-Pandemic World

It’s official. We’re now in the post-pandemic phase. So what’s the real scoop on local real estate? Follow along as we review the May statistics and tease you with a little early June data.

Putting Statistics in Perspective

The first thing we want to do is remind everyone that in the first three months of the pandemic, the number of sales in the Los Angeles South Bay had dropped to approximately 50% of 2019 activity. So, when we say sales are up 100% from last year, what we’re really saying is that sales volume is pretty much back to normal. That is, “normal” in 2019.

Similarly, the fact all areas show higher sales prices than 2020 is relatively meaningless. We can only look to recent months or pre-pandemic statistics for market indications. We’ll get into more detail below, but remember that comparisons of 2020 to the Great Recession can be misleading.

Median Price Climbs: Everywhere

The median price in May of this year is shown in the chart below. Because 2020 wasn’t very meaningful in terms of normal real estate activity, we pulled up 2019 statistics. Respectively, the median price is up from 2019 by 25% at the Beach, 20% in the Harbor, 18% in PV and 16% Inland. That’s more than a healthy increase in prices for two years of appreciation. We can see from the charts there was some rapid inflation the first quarter of the year. More so at the Beach and in PV than elsewhere. Probably we’ll see some of that taken back as the market cools.

What we’re not talking about is what part of the market is selling? High? Low? Let’s look at the sales volume to find the hot spot in the market.

Sales Volume Starting to Smooth

The number of home sales per month across the South Bay has just about returned to normal. Sales in May 2020 were off by 45%-55% across the board from 2019. Now, comparing May of 2021 to 2019 we find that the Harbor cities have had virtually zero change in the number of sales. By contrast, the Beach shows 2% more sales, the Inland cities 5% growth in sales, and Palos Verdes 19% growth.

Two things stand out for me. The two year lack of growth in sales volume for the Harbor cities tells me the pandemic hit those cities the hardest. The recovery there will lag behind the rest of the South Bay offering some opportunity for those ready to buy now.

The second hot spot is 19% growth in sales volume on the Palos Verdes peninsula. Looking over the actual sales, I’ve concluded it’s simply that there are far fewer homes on the Hill, so minor change in sales statistics can look like a major fluctuation.

Total Sales Down Across the South Bay

Our chart below shows the total sales dollars climbing out of a winter slowdown that was accentuated by the pandemic. All areas rose uniformly in March and April of this year ending in May just about where they were the prior fall. June results will give us a better picture, but we expect a gradual leveling as inventories grow.

As of now, activity indicates that the peak of recovery from the pandemic is passing by us right now. Things should level out over the summer leaving us with a statistically somewhat normal sales year.

South Bay Summary

Across the South Bay we’re seeing a moderation of the wide swings and extreme numbers generated throughout the pandemic. For example, monthly March sales volume for all areas was up 57% over the prior month. By the end of April volume was only up by 6%. For May it was down -8%. Taking a peek at sales to date in June, it should be at -2% next month.

What we’re watching is the panic leaving the marketplace and stability returning. Pent-up demand earlier this year pushed property prices up as much as 14% on a month-to-month basis. While still steep, the high for May was 10%. Our forecast for June price increases in SoBay is a high of 9%, with a low of 0%.

At the moment there is little indication prices will move into negative territory beyond losing some of the rapid inflation of recent months. That may change as moratoriums on eviction and foreclosure dissipate. Currently slated to end September 30, 2021, some fear that the end of local moratoriums will release a flood of foreclosures and cause prices to plummet.

Locally, Los Angeles county and city have offered several alternative plans to minimize the impact. In some cases the entire debt may be covered by combined State, Federal and local government funds, completely rescuing both the tenant and the landlord from housing loss. As a result, many in the industry expect prices and activity levels to return to approximately where they were prior to the pandemic.

We believe the level of inventory will be nearly normal by this fall. Already we see offer prices declining and Average Days On Market (ADOM) stretching past 30 days for 15-20% of available homes. Following the usual slowdown for the holiday season, we predict a robust January in 2022 as the pandemic becomes a fading memory.

Judging from the downturn in May, we’re now returning to a more normal market. So, logically speaking, homes listed in June and later should come on the market at slightly lower prices. Our expectation is for area median sales to fall back by approximately $175K in the Beach and Harbor areas, with a decline of about $100K for PV and Inland area sales.

Cover photo by Martin Sanchez on Unsplash