Author: Carl Clark

2023 South Bay Real Estate: Fail

By every measure South Bay real estate failed last year. The volume was down from the prior year in every residential area, the median price fell from 2022 heights everywhere, and the double whammy of crashing sales and falling prices brought the total revenue down from 2022. Judging from early reports the same is true across most of the state.

Part of the story doesn’t read so poorly though. As we look back across the year, the second of half of 2023 was far better than the first half of the year. This in two respects: first, the month-over-month statistics for sales volume have improved. The median price is still falling, but that’s to be expected if we’re going to see a sales volume increase concurrent with continued high interest rates. The market is going to demand that some of the “overly enthusiastic” price increases come back down.

Second, the year-over-year decline in median price is slowing—not reversing—slowing. Roughly speaking, the number of homes sold for less than 2022 prices improved from 83% in the first half of the year to 45% in the second half of 2023. That signifies an approaching balance in the market. Buyers are still holding back, but some sellers are coming forth to meet them.

2024 South Bay Real Estate: Better Days Ahead

We expect to see continued slippage in the median price, accompanied by increased sales volume. The Los Angeles South Bay is somewhat insulated from the vagaries of national and international events, but 2024 is facing an active political climate. The continuing wars around the planet would be enough to rattle economic markets here. This year sellers and buyers also have to factor in a contentious national election.

While the Federal Reserve System is officially apolitical, history has shown a tendency for improved economic conditions during election years. The final quarter of 2023 saw a softening of the wild swings in home sales volume and pricing. With less than 10 months until the presidential elections we anticipate continued easing of interest rates and increased sales activity. Median prices have fallen by about 2% across the South Bay in 2023 and probably won’t drop a lot more in 2024.

Sales volume fell by 15% across the South Bay in 2023. Nearly all of that drop was in the first half of the year. The new year is expected to be positive with growth in sales across the board.

Beach: Strong Sales On Weak Prices

Comparing December to November, the number of homes sold at the Beach was up 13%. That increase in sales is on top of a 9% increase in November, a dramatic turnaround from the 27% drop in October. On the other hand, the month to month median price fell 5% in December.

December of 2023 was similarly mixed when compared to December of 2022. Year over year saw sales volume increase a staggering 39%. Looking back shows December of last year as the absolute slowest month of the year for home sales at the Beach. The median price plummeting by 10% certainly helped generate those December 2023 sales.

Year to date numbers, comparing all 12 months, showed the number of home sales off by 11%. At the same time the median price was down 4% for the year. Much of the annual decline in sales volume occurred in the first half of 2023, when monthly drops of 25%-35% put the brakes on prices. Beach area median prices have taken steep falls since February 2023. It may take a couple more months before the first stimulating news on the interest rate front, but it would appear we’re looking at the “bottom of the market” now. Regardless of whether you’re a buyer or a seller, this is time to reassess your options.

Harbor: Positive Across the Board

December versus November of 2023 saw sales volume go up 1%. During that time the median price went up 2%. Harbor area homes sales dropped precipitously through the third quarter when they suddenly found strength and were positve in the single digits for the last quarter. Monthly declines in median price have been the order until the final quarter when median prices appear to have leveled out.

Looking from the annual perspective, home sales in December 2023 were up 3% over the last month of 2022. Using the same comparison, median prices were up 13%. This suggests the Harbor area may already be seeing improved stability.

Summarizing 2022 versus 2023 for the Harbor area, overall home sales volume dropped 17% for the year. Looking from a longer term perspective, sales have fallen 26% from the ‘pre-Covid benchmark year’ of 2019. From 2022 to 2023 the median price fell 2%. Again over the longer term, median prices in the Harbor area are up 31% over 2019.

Hill: Median Price Down – Sales Up

December home sales increased on the Hill by 9% over November levels. For the same mnthly period, median prices were down 9%. This pattern is expected to shift over the first quarter of 2024 as prices stabilize and interest rates decline to allow more potential purchasers to enter the market.

Compared to December of 2022, December 2023 came in with sales of 22% more homes and a median price increase of 5%. A solid year over year growth for the Hill.

Taking a step back and looking at the full year, sales volume fell 17% from 2022. At the same time, median price fell only 1%.

Inland: Sales and Prices Still Sliding

The last month of the year brought no relief for the Inland area. The number of homes sold continued to decline with sales down 2% compared to November. The median price was down for the second month, this time 5% for the month.

Looking at the same month last year, gives year over year sales volume down 2%,and a median price that’s down 2%. The final quarter of the year has been a rough adjustment period for the Inland area.

In the broader year over year view, the Inland area again fell, with sales volume down 11%. Median price was flat for the period with a tendency toward negative. It’s a transitional period which should resolve into a firmer picture by the spring of the year.

Beach=Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach, El Segundo
Harbor=Carson, Long Beach, San Pedro, Wilmington, Harbor City
PV Hill=Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates
Inland=Torrance, Lomita, Gardena

Photo by frank mckenna on Unsplash

Coming Up at the Grand Annex

un-told. (mostly) true stories

A weekend of storytelling where both seasoned performers and brave novices get up on stage to share their (mostly) true stories in front a live audience. The mission of un-told is to connect people through community, laughter, and inspiration. We want to give storytellers a platform to share their stories in front of a supportive and amazing audience.

Performance Schedule:

  • Opening Night Friday, 1/19 at 7:30 PM
  • Matinee Saturday, 1/20 at 2 PM
  • Closing Night Saturday 1/20 at 7:30 PM

John Jorgenson Quintet

Sat, Jan 27, 2024
8:00 PM
Doors 7:00 PM

John Jorgenson is a multi-instrumentalist and master guitarist who is recognized across rock, jazz and Americana genres. As the leader of the John Jorgenson Quintet (JJQ) his musicality and virtuosity absolutely shine. The group’s style is inspired by the dynamic string-driven swing created by Django Reinhardt in Paris in the 1930s, yet Jorgenson’s compositions draw additionally from Latin, Romanian, Greek, classical, and rock music.

JJQ is the only American act to ever headline the prestigious Festival Django Reinhardt in France and has been featured at Django-celebrating festivals around the world.

In addition to his jazz laurels, Jorgenson toured for six years with Elton John, won a country music Grammy, and has collaborated with pretty much everyone from Barbra Streisand to Bonnie Raitt, from Brad Paisley to Luciano Pavarotti.

No Depression music magazine says, “John Jorgenson has a rare kind of genius in that he’s equally comfortable and capable of playing Buck Owens, Beatles riffs, or jazz leads…”

Renee Safier & Bob Malone

Fri, Feb 02, 2024
8:00 PM
Doors 7:00 PM

Grand Annex favorites Bob Malone and Renee Safier join forces for a night of classic jazz and blues standards. Renee is an award-winning versatile rock, blues, and jazz vocalist. Known best for her work with Andy Hill and their band Hard Rain, Safier has played her guitar and sung her heart out to devoted folk-rock fans for decades.

Bob Malone is known for his high-energy piano-playing hybrid of rock, pop, and blues. He’s has toured with John Fogerty since 2011, done session work with Ringo Starr and Avril Lavigne and has amassed his own a loyal fan-base through 25 years of touring and nine critically acclaimed albums. The New Yorker called Bob, a “keyboard wizard” and in 2018, his recording of “You’re A Mean One, Mr. Grinch” was featured in the trailer for the Illumination/Universal film, The Grinch.

Andy Hill & Renee Safier

Tuesday, January 16 from 5:30PM to 7:30PM — SoCal favorites, Andy & Renee, along with their band Hard Rain, have taken their unique sound and multi-instrumental skills to venues large and small all over the world. Named, “Best of The Beach” for many consecutive years by The Easy Reader, their seventeen CD and three DVD releases have also won them countless awards. They are known for their numerous energy-packed live performances and have made a name for themselves as producers and performers of Dylanfest, an 8-hour music festival attended by hundreds of fans and featuring many of L.A.’s top musicians annually in the Spring.

Check out this fabulous duo at the world famous Lighthouse Cafe in Hermosa Beach Tuesday, January 16 from 5:30PM to 7:30PM, or any other Tuesday! They play the Lighthouse nearly every Tuesday.

Andy & Renee at the Banana Leaf

THU, JAN 18 @ 6:30PM — 9:00PM Come try this venue out! Great listening room and both Indian and American food menu!

Banana Leaf & Beach Cities Social, 1408 S Pacific Coast Hwy, Redondo Beach, CA 90277

Andy & Renee and Hard Rain at The Lighthouse

SUN, JAN 21, 2024 @ 2:00PM — 5:00PM The Lighthouse Cafe, Don’t miss this spectacular show!! Andy & Renee plus the full Hard Rain band at one of the best known venues in the South Bay.

The Lighthouse Cafe, 30 Pier Avenue Hermosa Beach, CA 90254 310 376-9833, Hermosa Beach, CA 90254

Pro Songwriter Showcase – January 2024

HAPPY TUESDAY TO YOU ALL! JUST A GENTLE REMINDER ABOUT TONIGHTS PB SONGWRITER NIGHT – IT’S LOCALS NIGHT!!  ALL THREE OF THESE MUSICIANS ARE WELL KNOWN BEYOND THE SOUTH BAY, BUT WE ARE PROUD TO HOST THEM IN THEIR OWN NEIGHBORHOOD! THEY WILL BRING A VARIETY OF MUSIC TO THE ROOM AND PUT A BIG SMILE ON YOUR FACE TOO!

JODI SIEGEL – Every month on the third Tuesday Jopdi brngs together a few professional songwriter friends to play some of their own music for a very attentive and appreciative audience at the Project Barley Brewery in Lomita, CA. Today is that day! Jodi will kick off the session sith a few of her own pieces followed by these fine folk.

HAROLD PAYNE IS A MULTI-PLATINUM SONGWRITER – He has written songs for such diverse artists as Rod Stewart, Patti LaBelle, the Temptations, and long time collaborator, Bobby Womack—literally from Peter Paul and Mary to Snoop Dogg. Most recently, Rudimental reached #1 on the UK album charts containing the Womack/Payne song “New Day”, “Daylight” charted with Kelly Rowland plus the CD “Bravest Man in the Universe” which was co-written by Payne, Bobby Womack, Damon Albarn (Gorillaz) & Richard Russell (XL Recordings) received the prestigious “Q” award in the UK for “Best Album of the Year.”

CHUCK ALVAREZ – Many know Chuck as a guitar player for jazz great Flute player Tim Weisberg and the soul band THE Emotions , but Chuck is a well know producer of many singer-songwriters and a wonderful writer too! He has been rocking audiences for 40 plus years and shared the stage with legends like Johnny Winter, Robben Ford, Deana Bogart, Little Richard, David Benoit and many more. If you live here in the South Bay you know and love Chuck!!

PAULA FONG – American/folk artist Paula Fong Paula Fong is an Americana/Folk singer songwriter based in Los Angeles whose voice and style of writing has been compared to the early songs of Joni Mitchell, but has also been heavily influenced by the raw soulful poetry of Patti Griffin and the honest candor of Gillian Welch. In the past, she’s sung with song/screen writer Tracy Newman and was part of a duo with Tom Kell (Skyboys, J.D. Souther) that released two co-written albums together; “Between Heartache and Promise” and “The Other Side of Sorrow”. Currently, she is preparing to release her first solo album in the Spring of 2024 and also sings and plays in Americana/Indie Folk band, Abby Posner and the Big Fall.!

NO RESERVATIONS. Get there early to get a table! Put it on your calendar and see ya there!!

Project Barley serves excellent Food (Gourmet Pizza, gluten free/vegan options, wings, sandwiches, salads), wine, and award winning beer. Food served till 8:30pm. 2308 E Pacific Coast Hwy, Lomita, CA 90717 https://projectbarley.com/

Live Music at the Grand Annex

Tickets are ON SALE now for the new line-up of winter-spring concerts. They are moving fast, so it’s time to choose your favorite shows before they sell-out.

We have already booked a second Jack of Hearts The Music of Bob Dylan concert in April and added three Wine Tastings. Stay tuned for more shows to come!

We are thrilled to announce that 2024 is the 15th Anniversary of the Grand Annex Music Hall, your neighborhood home for live music. We look forward to celebrating with you at concerts throughout the whole year!

JOHN JORGENSON QUINTET

Saturday, January 27 / 8 PM

Grammy award-winning guitarist leads his gypsy jazz group known for their Django Reinhardt-style swing.

TICKETS

RENEE SAFIER & BOB MALONE

Friday, February 2 / 8 PM

Grand Annex favorites Renee Safier (vocalist of Andy & Renee & Hard Rain) and keyboard wizard Bob Malone join forces for a night of classic jazz and Great American Songbook standards.

TICKETS

ROSE’S PAWN SHOP

Saturday, February 10 / 8 PM

Alt-rockers return with some of the best lyric-driven roots rock since The Band emerged from Bob Dylan’s basement.

TICKETS

To see the balance of the season bookings go to https://grandvision.org/grand-annex/

Andy & Renee-The Lighthouse Cafe

SoCal favorites, Andy & Renee, along with their band Hard Rain, have taken their unique sound and multi-instrumental skills to venues large and small all over the world. Named, “Best of The Beach” for many consecutive years by The Easy Reader, their seventeen CD and three DVD releases have also won them countless awards. They are known for their numerous energy-packed live performances and have made a name for themselves as producers and performers of Dylanfest, an 8-hour music festival attended by hundreds of fans and featuring many of L.A.’s top musicians annually in the Spring.

Check out this fabulous duo at the world famous Lighthouse Cafe in Hermosa Beach Tuesday, December 19 from 5:30PM to 7:30PM, or any other Tuesday! They play the Lighthouse nearly every Tuesday.

The Lighthouse Cafe, 30 Pier Avenue Hermosa Beach, CA 90254 310 376-9833, Hermosa Beach, CA 90254

Songwriters Showcase – December

This is a once a month (every third Tuesday) show that is designed as a listening room for world class songwriters, to play their original music in an intimate setting. NO COVER BUT DONATIONS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED AND GO TO THE SONGWRITERS. Project Barley serves excellent Food (Gourmet Pizza, wings, sandwiches, salads), wine, and award winning beer. Food served till 8:30pm. No reservations so arrive early to get a table. This month we are proud to present: David Serby/Ed Tree, Nick Justice/Richard Stekol, Jodi Siegel and Barley Unplugged!

DAVID SERBY (w ED TREE))

The Southern California-based country-rocker David Serby has made a name for himself with his evocative, gritty portraits of SoCal life that are both personal and universal. The LA-native has a unique perspective because he spent much of his childhood in a small farming town in Illinois before returning to Southern California as a teen.

Serby doesn’t shy away from Southern California’s many warts, as he demonstrates throughout his upcoming release, Low Hanging Stars. The record’s roadhouse rockers, country shuffles, and south-of-the-border two beats, are populated by a cast of maybe not quite losers, but certainly too lost to find the winners circle down-and-outers, and it is full of the clever word-play and heartfelt and introspective lyrics for which he is known.

This will be Serby’s sixth record with producer/guitarist Edward Tree. His previous, critically acclaimed releases include I Just Don’t Go Home (singer-songwriter); Another Sleepless Night and Honkytonk & Vine (roadhouse honky tonk); Poor Man’s Poem (folk); and The Latest Scam (rock).

Serby’s influences include the classic country artists played by his father on the family hi-fi- Roger Miller, Marty Robbins, Johnny Cash, Willie Nelson and other Nashville stars – as well as the edgier country rockers discovered by Serby as a Southern California teen – The Blasters, Dave Alvin, Rank and File, X and Dwight Yoakam to name a few.

Serby has remained an active member of the vibrant Southern California roots music scene for the last twenty years, and he has twice played the Palomino Stage at the Stagecoach Festival in Coachella, CA, opening for among others, Willie Nelson, Lucinda Williams, The Old 97’s, Robert Earl Keen, Kris Kristofferson and Rodney Crowell.

NICK JUSTICE (w RICHARD STEKOL)

Nick Justice hails from the Bronx, NY. He came out west in 1980 and fronted a few bands (Guns for Hire, Nick Justice Band, Chords of Fame) in the emerging cow punk era in southern California. Playing on bills with the Blasters, X, The Plimsouls, The Go Go’s, The Beat Farmers and The Bangles who were all going somewhere while he was going nowhere Justice fled to the Northwest living in Seatlle for most of the 90’s playing throughout the Northwest as a traveling troubadour for a decade mostly playing coffee houses, house concerts and juke joints. Justice came back to LA in 200o and quit the music business but never stopped writing. In 2015 he called up a few old friends like Greg Leisz, Bobby Cochrane and put out and EP “The Cry of the Street Prophet”. 4 records quickly followed in succession including 2019’s critically acclaimed “The Road Not Taken” with Richard Bredice (Jules Shear, Fallout Boy, Missiles of October, David Lindley) at the helm producing all 4 records. Justice’s newest release “Rope the Wind” charted at #1 on the Roots Music Report Top 50 Folk Rock Album Chart in April 2021.

BARLEY UNPLUGGED

Barley is feel good Americana band with a beach country vibe. Barley, who’s fearless leader lead singer/trumpet players and songwriter, Brent Reger, is also one of the owners of the three Barley Breweries located right here in the SouthBay. Barley, is a band of music brothers, with excellent harmonies, cool songs and seasoned musicianship! “It’s more of a family than a job. It’s not a job for us. We enjoy it and we have a good time together,” said Reger. There’s a lot of them in the band, eight to be exact: Brenton, Chris, Jason, Jay, Nate, Russ, Rusty, and Stephen. This band has stuck together for 10 years, playing all around the beach cities.

“Everything happens at the beach. We love the South Bay,” said Reger. Some of the members are from the South Bay and the rest have been here for years. It’s where they draw their inspiration from. Barley writes and performs their own music. Their sound they say is similar to the Beach Boys.

“Our music encapsulates that beach vibe. It’s a little folky. It’s a little beachy,” said Reger. They normally play with their full band – drums – guitars, bass etc….but for a few special shows, they do an unplugged type show where they sit on stools, and play and sing their songs accompanied by acoustic guitars. You can really hear the lyrics and their beautiful harmonies.

JODI SIEGEL

Jodi Siegel, originally from Chicago, IL, is a singer, songwriter and guitarist. Over the years Jodi has opened for and or shared the stage with many respected musicians including: Albert King, Robben Ford, Robert Cray, J.D. Souther, David Lindley, Fred Tacket and Paul Barrere (Little Feat) and countless others. Her songs have been recorded by Maria Muldaur, Marcia Ball, Tommy Ridgley and Teresa James.

She has recorded two CD’S; Stepping Stone and her latest CD, “Wild Hearts,” produced by Steve Postell (Immediate Family, David Crosby, Eric Johnson, Robben Ford, Iain Matthews), is filled with great songs, cool grooves, intimate, smart lyrics and some of the best of the best musicians in Los Angeles today including; Mike Finnigan (organ, piano), Hutch Hutchinson, Abe Laborial Sr., Alphonso Johnson (bass), Russ Kunkel, Michael Jerome Moore, John Ferraro, Arno Lucas (drums, percussion), Joe Sublett (Saxophone) and Maxayne Lewis and Clydene Jackson (background vocals). Each song has a soulful delivery with an undeniable down-home elegance. It has received great reviews by Patrick Simmons (Doobie Brothers), Maria Muldaur, Walter Trout, David Mansfield (T Bone Burnett), Leland Sklar, Mike Finnigan and Doug Macleod to name a few.

South Bay Home Sales Improve!

Every month we compare the level of home sales from the preceding month to the same month of the preceding year. For example, November of 2023 is compared to November of 2022 to determine whether the number of homes being sold is growing or shrinking. The year over year number of homes sold across the South Bay has been shrinking every month since October of 2021–until now. November of 2023 marked the first time since October of 2021 where the number of homes sold increased over the same month in the prior year.

Lest we become overly enthusiastic, we need to remember that at this time last year successful sales figures were plummeting, Closed escrows were shrinking at up to 50% below the prior year in fall of 2022. So a positive value could only mean we’re bouncing along the bottom.

Also on the positive side, there is some improvement in median price which has been shrinking most of this year. At least as of November, it’s looking like “scattered improvement” in the South Bay real estate market.

Beach: Home Sales Pull Out of Dive

After two successive months of declining sales volume and falling median prices November real estate activity brought positive news to the Beach Cities. Last month saw a 9% jump in sales volume over October, and a 4% increase in the median price. The number of homes sold climbed from 79 last month to 86 in November. Concurrently, the median price gained nearly $70K.

The downside was a 3% drop of the median price versus November of 2022. The sold median for last November was $1.700M compared to $1.656M this year. The year over year sales volume gained 8% with 86 sales versus last years 80 transactions.

Year to date remains in red ink with sales down 14% January through November. For the same time period, the median price has fallen by 2%.

Harbor: Volume and Prices Turn Upward

Compared to November of 2022, both sales volume and median price climbed by 7% last month. This is the second month of solid upward figures for residential home sales in the Harbor area. Sales figures for the area have been in red ink since the beginning of the year, so these are welcome statistics for home owners wishing to sell.

On a monthly basis, the number of homes sold in the Harbor area fell by 6%, dropping from 267 in October to 252 in November. despite a median price increase of 1%.

Looking at the longer term, median price for the first 11 months of the year has fallen from $756K in 2022 to $740K, for a decline of 2% in the year to date median price. Sales volume for the same 11 months went from 3,770 in 2022 to 3,076 this year, a decrease of 18%.

Hill: Sales Volume Down, Prices Up

Comparing November of 2023 to November from last year shows a 10% drop in sales from 51 units in 2022 to 46 units this year. Despite the decline in number of sales, the median price for November climbed 19%, going from $1.77M in 2022 to $1.94M this year.

Monthly changes to the median price are much smaller and have been getting smaller as the year progresses. The November decrease was 1%, having dropped from $1.96M to $1.94M. The median price has varied monthly throughout the year. It ranged from a high of $2.3M in May of this year and fell as low as $1.6M in February. Year to date the median for the Hill is up 1% from 2022.

After having risen in September by 14% and in October by 13%, the number of homes sold on the Hill fell by 27% in November. Of course, part of the decline is seasonal. However, month to month sales volume for the first 11 months of 2023 was off by 19% in Palos Verdes with a similar drop of 16% overall for the South Bay.

Inland: Median Price Up from 2022

November 2023 was a good month for the Inland area compared to the same month last year. The number of homes sold climbed 11%, from 96 sold last year to 107 this year. Median price turned upward by 6%, ending the month at $851K, changed from $800K in 2022.

Compared to October of this year, Inland homes sales fell 8%, dropping from 116 homes to 107. That rate of change was slightly higher than the 6% drop across the South Bay. Median prices fell 7% for the month.

Year to date, the Inland area sales volume is off by 12% while the median price is up 1% from the same period in 2022.

Beach=Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach, El Segundo
Harbor=Carson, Long Beach, San Pedro, Wilmington, Harbor City
PV Hill=Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates
Inland=Torrance, Lomita, Gardena

Photo by Andrew Sterling on Unsplash

Coming Up at the Grand Annex

SARAH LEE GUTHRIE
Holiday Show
Fri, Dec 01, 2023, 8:00 PM, Doors 7:00 PM

Sarah Lee Guthrie sings originals plus the iconic folk songs made famous by her father Arlo, grandfather Woody and their comrades in music. Enjoy holiday cider and sing-alongs.

Sarah Lee Guthrie’s bright vocals prove that she is a force to be reckoned with in her own right. Over the past 2 decades, she has continued her ancestral legacy, touching the hearts of folk fans nationwide.

She released 6 albums so far, including her 2009 family album Go Waggaloo, featuring Arlo, her then-young children and unused Woody Guthrie lyrics. The album won a Golden Award from The Parents’ Choice Foundation.

Andy Hill and Renee Safier

Andy & Renee are back to their regular gig at The Lighthouse in Hermosa Beach Tuesday evening. See them every: TUESDAY @ 5:30PM — 7:30PM. The Lighthouse Cafe, 30 Pier Avenue Hermosa Beach, CA 90254 310 376-9833

And watch for their Thursday, November 30, 6:30-9PM show at the Banana Leaf & Beach Cities Social, 1408 S Pacific Coast Hwy, Redondo Beach, CA 90277

SoCal favorites, Andy & Renee, along with their band Hard Rain, have taken their unique sound and multi-instrumental skills to venues large and small all over the world. Named, “Best of The Beach” for many consecutive years by The Easy Reader, their seventeen CD and three DVD releases have also won them countless awards. They are known for their numerous energy-packed live performances and have made a name for themselves as producers and performers of Dylanfest, an 8-hour music festival attended by hundreds of fans and featuring many of L.A.’s top musicians annually in the Spring.

Jodi Siegel – Songwriter Showcase for November

As always, Jodi’s Songwriter Showcase will be held the third Tuesday of the monthat Project Barley in Lomita. NO RESERVATIONS – Get there early to get a table! Put it on your calendar for November 21!!

Project Barley serves excellent Food (Gourmet Pizza, gluten free/vegan options, wings, sandwiches, salads), wine, and award winning beer. Food served till 8:30pm. 2308 E Pacific Coast Hwy, Lomita, CA 90717 https://projectbarley.com/

The Performers

Jodi Siegel

Jodi Siegel was born in Chicago, IL. The Home of the Blues! She eventually relocated to California and  began playing and singing in countless blues, R & B, pop and original music bands throughout Orange County, San Diego and Los Angeles. Over the years Jodi has opened for and or shared the stage with many respected musicians including: Albert King, Robben Ford, Robert Cray, J.D. Souther, David Lindley, Fred Tacket and Paul Barrere (Little Feat) and countless others. Her songs have been recorded by Maria Muldaur (“So Many Rivers To Cross,”-cowritten with Daniel Moore and “If I Were You”-cowritten with Danny Timms) Marcia Ball (“So Many Rivers To Cross.”) and Teresa James (“Come Up and See Me Sometime”-cowritten with Danny Timms)

Abby Posner 

Abby is an award winning, multi-instrumentalist, a featured artist on both CMT and the Americana Festival this year, and has composed music for commercials, TV, Radio and movies. Touring throughout the US and beyond, Abby has built a strong, loyal following. She has opened for such artists as Phranc, Sierra Hull and Dustbowl Revival. Her style goes from Americana/Country/Folk to pop, rock and even jazz. She has a fun rapport with her audience and is very entertaining! For more information go to: https://www.abbyposner.com/

Steve Wood and Beth Fitchet Wood  

Keyboardist Steve Wood and guitarist Beth Fitchet Wood have a long, checkered past in music, together and separately (Honk, Kenny Loggins, Jackson Browne, Sting, Paul McCartney, Dave Mathews and film composition). Their music expertly combines folk, pop, rock and jazz with soaring vocal harmonies and well crafted songs that are lighthearted, serious, romantic, sarcastic and always unpredictable!

Beth has recorded a dozen well received solo albums in folk, jazz, pop and children’s music genres, and produced the decade long weekly Laguna Beach Songwriters Showcase, “Beth’s Tuesdays”. Beth has also received multiple awards for her songs over the years including winning the Best Song(s) award at the Tucson Folk Festival in 2009 for “Red Red Sky” and “Peace in the Valley.” Both Steve and Beth are impossible to categorize into any one genre; they do them all! They also have a fun onstage banter and are fun to watch and to listen to! For more information on both Steve and Beth go to: http://www.bethfitchetwood.com/ http://www.stevewoodmusic.com/ 

Palos Verdes Homes Top the South Bay Market

Home sales on the Palos Verdes Peninsula chalked up an impressive set of statistics in October. Comparing the October 2023 sales to October of last year showed a stunning 26% increase in sales volume beside an equally impressive 11% increase in median price. At the opposite end of the spectrum the Beach Cities October sales volume fell 19% from 2022, while the median price dropped 14%.

Elsewhere across the Los Angeles South Bay volume and prices were mixed with the general trend leaning toward decreased number of homes sold and prices struggling to stay level with last month while often slipping below.

Year To Date Sales Continue to Drop

In between the highs and the lows real estate activity in the South Bay has been mixed for the months of August through October. While many commentators are cautiously hopeful, it must be noted that year to date comparisons continue to show significant declines in the number of homes sold, with an average drop of 18% from 2022 for the first 10 months of the year. Likewise, median prices are falling for the January through October time frame. For example, median prices on the Hill were up in October, but have fallen 4% year to date compared to last year. Similarly the Beach area median is down 3% and the Harbor area is off 2%.

Sales volume is clearly down. By this time in 2022 sales were at 6700 units versus 5500 this year. Many buyers have been “priced out of the market” and many sellers are resisting the idea of “prices going backward.” The result has been a lot of deals not being made.

Year to date, the deals that have been consummated are still generally at median prices above last year, however the most recent three months have shown at least half of sold homes required price reductions to make the sale. With winter setting in, we expect continued reductions in both the volume of sales and in the prices of sold homes.

Home Sales at the Beach Hit a Wall

Throughout the year real estate in the Beach Cities has maintained spotty growth. Sometimes median prices improved, sometimes sales volume. But, October brought a wall of red ink for the Beach. Month over month sales volume plummeted by 27%, while the median price dropped 5% from September when it was flat at $1.7M.

Year over year transaction volume dropped 19% from September of 2022. The median price fell 14% for the same period.

Looking at the year to date statistics showed more declines with sales volume for the first 10 months of 2023 coming in 16% below that of 2022. At the same time, the median price was off by 3%.

In prior downturns the Beach area has been among the last to respond to market negativity and one of the first to recover. If the pattern repeats, sales at the Beach will continue to show predominately negative numbers for the late fall and winter months. Most chroniclers project a return to positive market conditions in late 2025 or early 2026 in general.

Harbor Volume and Prices Turn Upward

Home sales in the Harbor area moved from all negative last month to mostly positive this month. Sales volume on a monthly basis jumped from 24% down in September to a 7% increase in October. Similarly, the month to month median price went from -1% to +1% in October.

Annually, the number of homes sold in the Harbor area increased by 6%, a significant change from having fallen 26% in September. The median price came in at $750K, up by 7%.

That’s only the second time this year the Harbor area median price has come up into the positive range when compared to 2022. Overall, the year to date median sits at $739K, 2% below last year’s number of $756K. Sales volume for the Harbor is off 20% year to date. The number of homes sold for the first 10 months is 2824, compared to 3535 in 2022.

Palos Verdes Homes Star in October Sales

Home sales on the Hill came in at 63 homes sold with a median price of just under $2M. Month over month that represented a 13% growth in sales volume and no measurable change in the median price.

On an annual basis October sales were up 26% over the same month in 2022. This year’s median price was up by 11% over last October.

While these numbers reflect impressive growth it’s important to remember that the number of transactions on the Palos Verdes peninsula is quite small, which results in some dramatic percentile shifts. For example, the annual percentage of change in the median price so far this year has ranged from a low of -29% to a high of 17%. By comparison, the Harbor area where monthly transactions number in the hundreds, has an annual range from a low of -11% to a high of 7%.

On a year to date basis, the Hill showed a more common face with the January through October sales volume down by 20% from 2022. During the same time frame median prices fell by 4%.

Inland Area Sales Volume Down, Prices Up

In a surprising turn of events, the Inland area has shown an increased median price for both the monthly and for the annual sales figures. The median price came in at $917K this October, which was 2% above the September median. On an annual basis, the median was up by 7% over the $860K of October 2022.

With 116 units sold for the month of October this year, the sales volume was 11% lower than it was this September. The monthly decline was even greater than the drop of 9% for the year over year comparison to last October.

Year to date, the Inland area has outperformed the balance of the South Bay on median price and on sales volume. For January through October there is no discernible change to the median price from 2022 to 2023. In the same time frame the sales dropped by 14%, the smallest decline of the local areas.

Beach=Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach, El Segundo
Harbor=Carson, Long Beach, San Pedro, Wilmington, Harbor City
PV Hill=Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates
Inland=Torrance, Lomita, Gardena

Photo by Julianne Takes Photos on Unsplash

Andy & Renee & Hard Rain-Halloween Party

Next weekend, we have a Hard Rain Halloween Party, Saturday, Nov. 4th. We love Halloween, and we just had to have a dance party with the band! You don’t want to miss this….It’s always a great time! Dressing up is optional, but always fun!

SAT, NOV 4 @ 6:00PM — 10:00PM Studio32, 17411 Delia Ave., Torrance, CA 90504

Dress up, or just come to dance and have fun! BYOB. $25 for the band. Get tickets at https://andyandrenee.com/tickets-tips-merch.

CHRIS PIERCE & FRIENDS

Soulful, bluesy singer-songwriter gaining national attention for his TV soundtrack hits. His recent album, American Silence earned rave reviews from NPR Music, Rolling Stone and many more.

Dubbed “one of the most important American songwriters working today,” by 88.5 KCSN Los Angeles, Chris Pierce rose to international prominence when NBC primetime series This Is Us featured his song We Can Always Come Back To This. The single then reached #1 on the Billboard Blues chart and was nominated for several awards.

With his raw acoustic accompaniment and his unmistakably heartwrenching vocals, he aims to unite his listeners, inspiring them to rise up and stand for what is right.

Pierce was diagnosed at 15 with Otosclerosis, a rare hearing disorder that caused him to lose his hearing in one ear and become partially deaf in the other. In spite of this, his passion for music only grew and inspired him to dig deeper in his skills. Thanks to his determination, he has had the honor of performing with many incredible artists including Al Green, B.B. King, Aaron Neville and Seal, and will be on tour this fall with Neil Young

For more details see https://grandvision.org/event/chris-pierce-friends/

South Bay Real Estate Struggles to Stay Afloat

The summer selling period for real estate in the South Bay showed mixed results for August and September. July was down across the board, but both the volume of sales and the median price was able to rebound in some areas. Notably, the Beach Cities come out of the third quarter with median prices up by 2% over last August, and up by 3% over September of 2022. That growth wasn’t enough to make up for earlier this year when median prices were down by as much as 17% in year over year sales.

Year To Date Prices Down Across the South Bay

Comparing the first nine months of 2022 to the same period in 2023 shows median prices at the Beach down 2%, the Harbor down 2%, the Hill down 8% and the Inland area down 1%. Similarly, the number of homes sold dropped at the Beach by 15%, the Harbor by 22%, the Hill by 23% and the Inland area by 14%. On average across the South Bay sales volume was off by 20%.

To some extent this validates the supply versus demand theory. With interest rates above 7%, many potential sellers (who are simultaneously buyers elsewhere) have simply changed their plans. They’ll wait for interest rates to abate before trying to move. The California Association of Realtors reports that the number of homes sold across the State has fallen for 27 consecutive months. Locally, a couple of neighborhoods have shown year over year improvement a couple of times, but overall, the last time sales volume was positive across the South Bay was September of 2021, 24 months ago.

Because there are so few homes available for buyers in a must move situation, those buyers are forced to buy despite high interest rates and despite elevated prices. Mortgage interest rates are currently testing the 8% number, and are expected to stay there into 2024. Most forecasts expect the number of sales to drop even further, possibly offset by an increase in renters and a corresponding increase in rental prices.

Things don’t happen very fast in the real estate market. We mentioned earlier that sales have been declining here for 24 months already. But, prices are still up and interest rates are still climbing. Currently, we expect to see a shift in the pattern this winter. As time goes on, more and more sellers will surrender to the inevitable and lower their asking price. Coupled with an increasing number of short sales and foreclosures, that will create the key metric the Federal Reserve is looking for to quell inflation. Most pundits are suggesting 2025-2026 for the bottom of the current down-trend and the beginning of a recovery.

A Home or a House?

Are you buying a home? Are you looking for a neighborhood that matches your personality? Are you looking for schools for your children? And nearby businesses for your family needs? That’s a home. If you’re looking at the appreciation rate for the zip code and how much you can leverage, that’s a house. The difference becomes important when the real estate market is rocky. When you’re buying a home, you’re looking at time over generations. Percentages on a loan mean little then because the property can be refinanced many times before it belongs to the family.

Are you looking for a house? Are you measuring the appreciation and the cost to income ratio? Are you looking for a distress sale and a rock-bottom price. Now is the time to put your cash away. Make no mistake—cash will be required! That’s not to say you can’t finance part of your investment, but count on having “skin in the game.” Your lender will require it. Over the next twelve months, accumulate as much cash as possible, and make your broker your best friend. You want a constant finger on where good deals are happening and you want to be one of the first on the scene. The “bottom of the market” is a hypothetical point. Your best deal can be anywhere in the area and any time in the downturn. It just has to meet your investment requirements!

Beach Cities Holding Strong Over 2022

The median price of homes sold in the Beach Cities was flat for August and September, following a 2% drop in July. Coming in at just under $1.7M the month over month price has been mostly down for the first three quarters of the year. Following a similar pattern, the month to month sales volume has fallen after a strong start in early spring.

In year to year comparison, both August and September have shown a modest improvement over the same months last year. Median prices were up 2% in August and 3% in September. This improvement comes on the tail of four straight month of declining median prices. Supporting the growth in median price, sales volume was up 23% in August and 20% in September. The positive numbers at the Beach are a welcome respite following 21 months of falling volume.

Looking at year to date 2023 versus 2022, median prices are down 2% and sales volume is down 15%.

Harbor Volume and Prices Slipping

September found home sales in the Harbor area fell in all measures. On a month to month basis, sales volume dropped 24%. At the same time, median prices fell 1% below the August median.

Year over year showed the number of homes sold down by 26% and the median price down by 3% from September of last year.

Year to date for the first three quarters of 2023 sales volume was off by 22% while median prices dropped 2%.

This is a pattern we expect to see repeated again and again during the coming two years. First the sales volume declines steeply, and median prices begin a downward trend. Then as the sales volume continues to decline, sellers begin to panic and the few active buyers tighten up on the terms of their offers. The cycle typically continues until falling commodity prices and weak employment numbers convince the Federal Reserve inflation is under control. Then it will start lowering the interest rate and allow markets to float free again.

Palos Verdes Transactions Volatile

The PV Peninsula came through September with positive numbers for the month, though the annual and year to date numbers suffered some slippage. Sales volume for September came in 14% above August and the median price was a respectable 15% above the prior month.

Compared to September of last year, home sales on the Hill fell by 7%. That decline was countered by a 5% increase in median price over the same month in 2022.

Like the rest of the South Bay, PV suffered downturns in the year to date statistics. The first three quarters of 2023 ended with a 23% downward slide in home sales volume, accompanied by an 8% fall in median price.

Inland Area Sales Volume Mixed, Prices Up

The Inland area performed surprisingly well in September. Home sales in the Inland area typically mirror those in the Harbor area. Last month brought a surprise when the median price climbed 6% above August. This positive note came despite a 12% drop in sales volume.

September of 2023 compared to September of 2022 brought even more surprise with a 5% increase in median price as well as a 17% jump in sales volume.

Year to date activity for the first nine months of 2023 compared to the same time frame in 2022 fell in line with the rest of the South Bay, Sales volume fell by 14% and median price by 1%.

Beach=Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach, El Segundo
Harbor=Carson, Long Beach, San Pedro, Wilmington, Harbor City
PV Hill=Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates
Inland=Torrance, Lomita, Gardena

Photo by Oliver Cole on Unsplash

Local Real Estate Meets the Inflation Fight

In August the South Bay real estate market showed some slowing of what has seemed a continuing slide into negative numbers. Closed transactions showed a partial recovery from the July report of declining sales and declining values, across both the past month and the past year.

August showed positive growth over July in sales volume except for transactions on PV Hill. Median prices compared to July were down except at the Harbor.

Annual statistics were similarly mixed with notable increases in sales at the Beach and Inland areas. Median prices compared to August of last year with modest increases in the Beach Cities and Harbor Area.

Beach Cities Show Strength in August

Sales volume at the Beach seemed surprisingly strong, however a look back in history reveals weaker than normal sales in July of this year and August of last year. The 127 units closed in August was much more in line with expectations, than the 91 sold in July or the 103 sold in August of 2022. Sales in a normal year would come in at about 125-135 units, showing that the Beach Cities are currently close to a normal number of transactions for the month.

Median prices came in negative compared to July, though less than a 1% drop. Last year’s weak sales led to an increase of 2% in median price this August, despite an overall downtrend for the year. Hypothetically, assuming the Federal Reserve policy of 2% growth, median price at the Beach should have been about $1.62M in August. As the market stabilizes from the pandemic, the median has steadily dropped from a high of $1.76M in April to the August actual of $1.67M..

Year to date transactions showed a continuing decline in sales volume (-19%) and median price (-4%) versus 2022. Likewise, sales volume was off 31% compared to the baseline year 2019. Median price is still coming in positive compared to the baseline, up 28% from 2019.

August Harbor Area Sales Climb

Looking at August versus July of this year shows Harbor area sales volume up a healthy 22%. While the month over month numbers are positive, sales are off 8% compared to the same month last year. For perspective, note that in 2019, the last normal year of business, there were 436 homes sold compared to 328 this August. Using that reference point, monthly sales are off by 25%.

Median price for last month was $751K, up 1% from July and up 4% over August of last year. Going back to 2019, the median was $575K, giving the current median price an increase of 32% over our baseline year. At the same time, the high median for this year was in June at $772K, and the lowest was $675K in February.

Year to date, the number of homes sold at the Harbor is down 22% from last year and likewise 22% from 2019.That decline in sales volume is driven by the increased median price which is up 32% compared to the first eight months of 2019. Being generally an entry level market, the Harbor area has shown a drop in sales every month of this year. Likewise, the year over year median price has dropped every month until August.

Palos Verdes Volume and Prices Drop

Sales and median prices were mixed everywhere in South Bay except for the PV Hill. All the statistics for August went down on the Hill. Month over month saw a drop in sales of 2% and decline in median price of 6%. Both are modest changes by comparison to most of the South Bay, but are indicative of the direction of the market in general.

Looking at August of last year compared to August of 2023 shows a dramatic decline of 36% in sales volume. Closed escrows dropped from 77 units last year to 49 this year. Annually, median prices dropped 6%, the largest drop of the four areas.

It’s important to note that in 2019, which being the most recent ‘normal’ year of business, August saw 90 units sold on the Palos Verdes peninsula. Monthly sales volume has dropped off by nearly 50% from the reference year.

Year to date through August shows sales volume down 25% from last year, with median prices falling by 10% over the eight month period. Comparing to 2019 year to date volume is off 21%, while median price comes in at 32% above the 2019 figure.

The disparity created during the pandemic is gradually leveling out as the year goes on. Palos Verdes median prices have fallen six out of eight months this year. The same has been true of the balance of homes sold in the South Bay.

Sales Up, Prices Down for Inland Area

From July to August transactions in the Inland area climbed 15%. Simultaneously, median prices fell by 2% for the month. January kicked off the year with a 16% increase in the median price. February saw that pricing promptly reverse and fall 14%. Since then sales volume has gradually dropped each month and median prices have shifted into a pattern of decline.

Year over year pricing numbers are nearly identical with a 15% jump in median price for January, followed by dropping prices every month since. Similarly, most of 2023 has seen falling sales for homes in the Inland area. So far, August has been the only month with growth in closed transactions.

Year to date statistics compared to 2022 have been much the same with the number of homes sold dropping by 17% and the median price down 2%. In keeping with the rest of the South Bay, comparisons to 2019 reflect sales falling 18% while the median price remains 32% above what it was before the pandemic.

Where Is the Real Estate Market Going?

The number of homes being sold has consistently fallen this year. Likewise, the median price of sold homes has generally been falling since the beginning of the year. The driver behind this has clearly been mortgage interest rates rising from under 3% to over 7% in a matter of months. The Federal Reserve managers have been very upfront about continuing these rates into the foreseeable future.

Most estimates state that about one third of potential buyers can no longer afford to continue with their purchase plans. We see a continued decline in the median price, as sellers find it impossible to sell at the price points reached during the pandemic. When ‘’time on market’ increases without a sale, sellers who ‘must sell’ will gradually lower prices.

Polls are showing those who aren’t compelled to sell are finding it hard to let go of mortgage interest rates below 5%. This reluctance, combined with the sliding median prices, will contribute to more stagnation in the market.

Photo by Carl Clark

Tapestry: A Tribute to Carole King



South Bay’s favorite folk-rockers open the new Grand Annex season September 16, 8pm, with their phenomenal homage to Carole King and her album, Tapestry. This promises to be an outstanding show, led by the unforgettable playing of Andy Hill and the sumptuous voice of Renee Safier. For tickets to see and hear the performance, go to https://grandvision.org/event/andy-renee-hard-raintapestry-tribute-to-carole-king/.

Andy Hill and Renee Safier with their band Hard Rain have been referred to as “America’s best kept secret.” Performing over 200 shows a year, the band delivers a style of Americana folk-rock that’s thoughtful, musical, danceable and full of memorable hooks. The duo are also behind “Dylanfest” the day-long music festival, now in its 33rd year, celebrating the music of Bob Dylan and featuring over 70 of L.A.’s best musicians.

With 17 CDs and 3 DVDs in their pocket, Andy & Renee have won countless awards, including “Americana Group of the Year” by the LA Music Awards, “Best Duo/Group” at the International Acoustic Music Awards and a Regional Emmy for their PBS concert special “Black Box Opens – Andy & Renee.” Their relatable lyrics, unforgettable melodic content and tightly crafted arrangements have brought together fiercely loyal audiences up and down the West Coast in the US and Canada.