Andy & Renee Live!

Andy & Renee-The Lighthouse

TUESDAYS @ 5:30PM — 7:30PM
The Lighthouse Cafe,
30 Pier Avenue
Hermosa Beach, CA 90254

Andy & Renee-Banana Leaf

THURSDAYS, June 27 @ 6:30PM — 9:00PM
Banana Leaf & Beach Cities Social,
1408 S Pacific Coast Hwy,
Redondo Beach, CA 90277

Andy & Renee & Hard Rain at Wilson Park-

Music from Woodstock-FREE

SAT, JUN 29 @ 5-6:30pm
Wilson Park,
2200 Crenshaw Blvd.,
Torrance, CA 90501

Andy & Renee & Hard Rain-Songs From Laurel Canyon

SOLD OUT- Call to get on waiting list

SUN, JUN 30 @ 8:00PM
The Grand Annex,
434 W. 6th St.,
San Pedro, CA 90731

Andy & Renee-Canada Day Celebration and Fundraiser for Community’s Child

MON, JUL 1 @ 6:00-10:00PM
Home of Athena Pacquette and Tom Cormier,
Torrance, CA 90505

$50 includes Music, food, drinks and donation to charity. Get tickets here: https://andyandrenee.com/tickets-tips-merch

Andy & Renee & Hard Rain-Malaga Cove Library Park Concert-

Songs from The Who, The Rolling Stones & The Beatles

WED, JUL 10
Malaga Cove Library Park,
2400 Via Campesina,
Palos Verdes Estates, CA

Details TBA

Andy & Renee Livestream #233

Friday, June 12th, 6pm PDT.

Watch live or anytime at https://youtube.com/live/flWlVBpZAlo?feature=share

Come watch the show in person at our studio! 17411 Delia Ave., Torrance, CA 90504. LIMITED SEATING, so RSVP now to reneesafier@hotmail.com. Please arrive no earlier than 5:45p. Show will start at 6pm.

For the online viewer, the Livestream shows are free to watch, but the option to contribute is there for those who are in a position to do so. You can see our song list to make requests and contribute at https://andyandrenee.com/tickets-tips-merch, PayPal (paypal.me/andyandrenee) or Venmo, (www.venmo.com/Renee-Safier). A portion of the proceeds will go to the Los Angeles Midnight Mission. We are sustained by the generosity and support of the fans who love the music, and who donate as they are able. If you use funds from your bank vs. your credit card, we aren’t charged a service fee, but either way, we appreciate your support!

Andy & Renee-Terranea Lobby Bar

MON JUL 15th & FRI JUL 19th@ 7:00PM — 11:00PM
Terranea Lobby Bar,
100 Terranea Way,
Rancho Palos Verdes, CA 90275

ON TOUR THE MONTH OF AUGUST!

COLORADO, IDAHO, OREGON, WASHINGTON, BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA!

DETAILS TBA!

Summer Sizzles at the Grand Annex

Ali Coyle
with Danielle Lande, Mary Ives

Sat, Jun 29, 2024
8:00 PM
Doors 7:00 PM
Tickets

American-Irish singer, songwriter, and multi-instrumentalist, Ali Coyle, intertwines dream-folk and indie rock genres with lush vocal harmonies and rhythm-focused instrumentation. With a voice that can be described as both haunting and angelic, Coyle’s lyrics express her stories as first generation American, and an openly queer artist, who fought to celebrate her identity growing up in Orange County, California.

Gravitating towards music at an early age, she learned classical violin and then ultimately the electric guitar, where she began to define her style as a songwriter.

Her 2021 debut studio EP, Songs For My Therapist received recognition and acclamation from a list of publications that include The Los Angeles Times, Atwood Magazine, and Guitar Girl Magazine for creating “poetic and moody music that speaks to your soul”

More recently she performed for Apple TV+ at the advanced screening of Flora and Son, an Irish film directed by John Carney (Once, Begin Again, Sing Street). Ali released a new single Dreamkiller last fall and, stay tuned, she is in the process of writing and producing her next record.spel, and 60’s pop.

Andy & Renee & Hard Rain –
Songs From Laurel Canyon

Sun, Jun 30, 2024
8:00 PM
Doors 7:00 PM
Tickets

This show is Sold Out! If you would like to be put on the waitlist, please call the Annex at 310-833-4813, placement on the waitlist does not guarantee a ticket.

SoCal favorites play originals and Songs from Laurel Canyon. Hear classic rock hits of the late ’60s and ’70s from Buffalo Springfield, Carole King, James Taylor, Linda Ronstadt, Crosby Stills Nash & Young and more.

Andy Hill and Renee Safier with their band Hard Rain has been referred to as “America’s best kept secret.” Performing over 200 shows a year, the band delivers a style of Americana folk-rock that’s thoughtful, musical, danceable, and full of memorable hooks. The duo is also behind “Dylanfest” the day-long music festival, now in its 33rd year, celebrating the music of Bob Dylan and featuring over 70 of L.A.’s best musicians.

With 17 CDs and 3 DVDs in their pocket, Andy & Renee have won countless awards, including “Americana Group of the Year” by the LA Music Awards, “Best Duo/Group” at the International Acoustic Music Awards, and a Regional Emmy for their PBS concert special “Black Box Opens – Andy & Renee.” Their relatable lyrics, unforgettable melodic content, and tightly crafted arrangements have brought together fiercely loyal audiences up and down the West Coast in the US and Canada.

Fred Crawford
Vaudeville Variety Revue

Sat, Jul 13, 2024
7:30 PM
Doors 6:30 PM
Tickets

Fred Crawford has long been a fixture of the local San Pedro entertainment scene from Papadakis Tavern, to Alvas Showroom and now the Grand Annex stage. Fred Crawford is a noted tap dancer and comedian hailing from a family of vaudeville performers. Performing a 90-minute comedy, monologue, pantomime, impressions of actors from Hollywood’s “golden age” and tap dance revue.

Opening the show will be Lou Mannick performing on the singing saw.

South Bay Median Prices Still Climbing

South Bay median home prices are continuing to climb! May versus April showed increases as high as 9% for the month. Comparing May of this year to last May gave increases as high as 18% for the year. Year to date statistics for the first five months of the year came in with increases as high as 11%. Looking at the same five month period from five years ago shows median prices have climbed by nearly 45%.

Mortgage interest rates have roughly doubled from two years ago. The Federal Reserve Bank kept raising rates, hoping to drive inflation down. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem to be working in the real estate world.

So far this year the interest rate increases have only modestly slowed purchases in month to month data. The number of homes sold in April was 10% higher than in March. May shows a 2% increase in the number of homes sold compared to April. Year over year sales volume shows a greater impact, with an 8% drop from May of 2023 to May this year. Most of that decline was lost this year as home sales for the year to date are up 1% from last year.

Once again looking back five years shows sales are off by 22% across the board from pre-pandemic sales volume. All while median prices are up 45%! But, there are very few homes on the market, and the shortage of inventory is driving price increases, contrary to the Fed goal of slowing inflation.

So why are there so few homes for sale today compared to 2019? And why are prices climbing in the face of mortgage interest rates that have doubled?

One possible factor: During the pandemic mortgage interest rates were at and below 3%. A significant number of existing mortgages were refinanced during the 18 months of the pandemic. Another 17% of currently existing mortgages were purchases at those rates. In summary, about 50% of the current mortgage market is now holding a note with an interest rate that is a fraction of today’s rates. There is essentially no reason for those folks to ever move.

Since about 80% of California homeowners carry a mortgage, and about half of those have an historically low interest rate, about 40% of homeowners have an incentive to stay where they are now, rather than trade up, as would be normal. Given the financial benefits, those homeowners are not likely to put their home on the market and increase the inventory thereby relieving some of the supply and demand imbalance.

Forty percent is a huge piece of the available housing stock to be removed from the market in a time of a housing shortage. Work-related re-locations would have once smoothed this out, but the “work from home” movement has also contributing to the slowing real estate market. The current outlook is for several years of low inventory, further exacerbating the increase in housing costs.

Eventually the inflation of housing prices will come under control and annual increases will get down to something less than 6%. There’ll be no attempt to “dial back” the inflation and return to a prior point in time. So the short term question is, “How do we adjust to the new reality of higher prices, fewer homeowners, and more renters?”

Beach: Anticipate Fewer Sales & Higher Prices

Monthly statistics have been misleading in recent months in all the areas. May activity at the Beach is a great example of the disparities. Compared to April, 7% fewer homes were sold in May with no change in the median price. Contrast that with the annual numbers where sales in May of this year are down 9% from 2023 but the median prices are up 9%.

By looking at data for the year to date, the sporadic ups and downs can be smoothed a bit. This shows a more complete picture of what the market is doing in comparison to last year. In summary, the first five months of the year show a 10% growth in sales for the Beach cities, accompanied by a 6% increase in the median price.

Early projections for June indicate an annual decline from the same month last year sales of over 15% and a price increase of nearly 20% in the Beach area. If these preliminary estimates hold true, there will be some serious hand-wringing among the financial community.

Harbor: More of the Same

Like the Beach area, month to month statistics for the Harbor area have been very volatile this year. The number of sales in May climbed 8%, after falling 4% in April. May’s median price was up 9% following a 1% increase for April.

Year over year, sales volume was down 15% compared to May of last year, while the median price jumped 18%. This follows the general trend of declining sales and increasing prices. Theoretically, the declining sales will induce sellers to reduce their asking price, which will then translate to a reduction in the current inflation rate.

With the year to date sales volume dropping by 5% the interest rate increases would appear to be working. But the increase in median price by 8% for the first five months of 2024 throws cold water on the idea that inflation in real estate is going away.

More of the same is projected for June with a drop of 15% in sales and an increase of 5.5% in median price.

Hill: Sales Volume and Median Prices Up

Only 66 homes sold on the PV peninsula in May, compared to 64 in April, so the 3% increase in sales volume is not terribly consequential. Likewise the 1% growth in median price from $1.93M to $1.95M.

As mentioned in previous articles, activity levels on the Hill are small, so it only takes a minor change to look statistically important. For example, 65 home sales in May of 2023 versus 66 in May of 2024 is only one more home sold, but represents a 2% growth in volume. Even more so, the $2.3M median price from May of 2023, which is an exceptionally high monthly median price in PV under any circumstances, makes the 15% decline to $1.95M look huge in 2024.

In reality, the May median price is actually higher than the year to date median of $1.93M and higher than all but the March median of $1.98M. January through May sales volume is up 4% and the median price is up 11%, very much like the rest of the South Bay.

June sales are projected to decline slightly with a modestly elevated median price.

Inland: Sales Up and Prices Up

From April to May the number of homes sold in the Inland area declined by 5%, much as the Beach area sales volume transacted. Unlike the Beach and PV, where median prices ended barely positive, the median increased by 7% in the Inland area. That hefty increase mirrored the Harbor area lift of 9% month over month in the median price.

A 6% increase in the volume of homes sold and a 7% rise in the median price from May of 2023 to this May deviated from the other areas. It displayed a stronger than expected sales volume, especially considering the Beach and Harbor areas were deeply negative. At the same time the median price showed a slower increase than either the Beach or the Harbor.

Year to date for the first five months of 2024, the Inland area showed an increase of 8% in the number of homes sold, and a solid 6% increase in the median price. All in all, an investment in one of the inland cities would have been a good performer in May.

That investment is projected to still be sound in June, with a small decrease in the number of homes sold and a similar increase in the median price.

Beach=Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach, El Segundo
Harbor=Carson, Long Beach, San Pedro, Wilmington, Harbor City
PV Hill=Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates
Inland=Torrance, Lomita, Gardena

Photo by Tim Cook on Unsplash

Coming Up at the Grand Annex

Jimmy’s Buffet

Fri, May 31, 2024
8:00 PM
Doors 7:00 PM
Tickets

This show is also available on Saturday, June 1 at 8 PM.

Calling all Parrot Heads! Celebrate the music and vibes of – you guessed it! – Jimmy Buffett. Experience a truly authentic Buffett sound with 12 of California’s best musicians.

The Grand Annex will transform into a tropical beach party as Jimmy’s Buffet honors their captain’s timeless legacy. Complete with congas and steel drums, the band will serve up a full catalog of hits, as well as a few surprises. Look forward to a Trop-Rock sensation!

Bella & Rudy
with Sudden Strangers

Fri, Jun 14, 2024
7:00 PM
Doors 6:00 PM
Tickets

Rudy Rios (guitar/vocals), Bella Gomez (lead vocals), Isaac Sharp (bass), Jack Ghekiere (guitar).

Sudden Strangers, an indie rock band from San Pedro, California, comprises Bella and Rudy on vocals, Jack on drums, and Isaac on bass. United by years of friendship and shared roots in their local community, their music reflects their deep connection and mutual passion. From local shows to larger stages such as the Whisky A Go Go, they have created a fun and youthful environment. Thanks to the best and most supportive community, Sudden Strangers is ready to rock the stage with you all on June 14th.

Pro Songwriters Showcase – May 2024

Teresa James and the Rhythm Tramps coming up this Tuesday! Gonna be a rocking time! This band is grammy nominated and have been touring all over the world and we are lucky to have ’em at the All Pro Songwriters Night, Tuesday, May 21, 2024 from 7-9pm. Playing drums for them will be multi-award winning drummer/producer Tony Braunagel…get there early to get a seat…for more information on Teresa and the Tramps go to https://teresajames.com/home

The Law of Supply and Demand

South Bay:

Could it be that after several years of insanely steep ups and downs in the real estate market, we’re finally starting to see normal sales levels and prices? One could draw that conclusion after looking at the year to date statistics for the first four months of 2024 compared to last year. Instead of crazy double digit increases and decreases the rate of change has slowed to single digits almost everywhere.

The Beach cities have been the exception with a 19% growth in the number of homes sold through April compared to 2023. That compares to an average across the South Bay of 4% growth. That’s a good sign, but sales are still off by about 20% compared to the same period in 2019, the last year of “normal business” prior to the economic turmoil of the pandemic.

Median pricing continues to escalate also, though at a much reduced pace. For the first four months of 2024, year to date median prices increased in the 5%-9% range. This is a considerable drop from price jumps of as much as 29% seen just a few months ago.

Looking back at the historical data shows that when the pandemic first hit median prices were operating on a relatively normal upward path. Monthly gains were modest fractions of a percent. Then the Federal Reserve slashed the interest rates to keep the economy moving, and the median price shot through the ceiling with monthly increases frequently topping 30%.

August of 2022 saw a price peak and median prices have been falling since. There’s a lot of resistance on the part of sellers, of course. But the sales volume remains low by historical standards, and buyers are demanding price cuts to compensate for the higher mortgage interest rates, if nothing else.

Expect to see mixed results over the coming months as prices and interest rates ebb and flow around a fluctuating political scene, both nationally and internationally.

Beach:

Monthly sales volume took an insane 55% leap at the Beach in April, after having fallen 1% in March. Seeing the median price plummet by 13% for the same period helps to explain the shift. It’s an isolated example of the push and pull of prices and interest rates. Buyers will remain constrained in their ability to purchase, either by rates, or by artificially inflated prices, until sellers reach a “need to move” point where they are willing to reduce asking prices.

Year over year sales show a similar response in the comparison to last April—a 31% growth in number of homes sold against a 1% decline in the median price.

Trends are better demonstrated in the year to date statistics. Looking at the first four months of 2024 and comparing to the same period in 2023 shows the sales volume increased by 19% while the median price increased 5%

Making the same comparison between 2019 and 2024 shows a 32% decline in the number of homes sold this year. Median price is sharply higher by 43%.

Harbor:

The Harbor area appears to be stabilizing ahead of the other South Bay areas. April sales volume declined at the Harbor by 4% versus sales in March, while median prices increased 1%. Smaller monthly movement, especially in price, is essential to reduce inflation and put the real estate economy back on a solid footing. It’s hard to argue that inflation is near 2% annually, while real estate prices are escalating at several times that goal.

Clearly there’s still a ways to go considering the April 2024 volume had zero growth compared to last April, and is still 24% below April of 2019. The median price has a similar issue being up 7% over April 2023, while holding at 44% above April of 2019.

Year to date, 2024 versus 2023, the number of home sales is off by 1% and the median price is up 8%. The elephant in the room is the constantly increasing median price, which is pushing up hard against the Fed’s inflation battle. The price keeps going up because the inventory is exceptionally limited. There were 18% fewer homes sold year to date in 2024 than in 2019. The limited selection compared to the pent up demand pushed the median up some more.

Anecdotally, many pundits point to the extremely low interest rates of the pandemic years as a big driver for the low inventory and bidding wars. Home owners who refinanced to rates well below 5% are reluctant to sell those properties and take up new loans at often double the interest rate. Consequently, homes that would have gone on the market are now artificially being held off the market.

Hill:

As usual, home sales on the Palos Verdes peninsula have been all over the map in recent months. The number of homes sold in April climbed 28% compared to March, when it jumped 39% versus February, when sales dropped 14%. The median price started with 0% change in January and has yo-yoed it’s way through the first four months, ending down 3% in April from March.

While monthly sales statistics are often sporadic on the Hill, comparing April this year to the same month last year, shows a 28% increase in the number of sales and a corresponding 3% increase in the median price.

Year to date numbers for Palos Verdes were more mundane, with the number of sales for the first four months up 5%. In the same time frame, median prices were up by 9%.

Compared to year to date 2019, PV sales volume was down 9% while prices were up 42%.

Inland:

Business in the Inland cities looks very much like business on the Peninsula right now. Month over month sales volume is growing at 8%—that’s positive because the market needs more inventory! At the same time monthly median prices are dropping by 5%—also positive because interest rates are not going back down to the record-breaking levels of the pandemic! Many of the transactions in the Inland area are entry level buyers embarking on their first home purchase. High prices and steep interest rates work against success for both sellers and buyers in that market.

Year over year sales volume increased at 34%, the kind of activity needed to stabilize the local market. Even with that increase in business, the median price pushed upward by 4%, double the Fed target.

Year to date sales volume is up 9% and median price is up 6%.

Wrapping it Up

It’s going to take some juggling to get more sellers onto the marketplace. And it’s going to require coordination with having able buyers there at the same time. Pundits are betting the Fed will engage in “brake-tapping” until after the Federal election. In the months just before the election interest rates will drop enough to encourage sellers to trade up, and allow buyers to qualify for financing. Those steps would enhance the increasing inventory being seen now. Then in the new year the brakes will be applied again to prevent inflation in the spring buying season. Of course, the outcome of the election promises to influence the market under any circumstance.

Beach=Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach, El Segundo
Harbor=Carson, Long Beach, San Pedro, Wilmington, Harbor City
PV Hill=Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates
Inland=Torrance, Lomita, Gardena

Photo by Dez Hester, https://unsplash.com/@dezhester

Palos Verdes Bay Club – Available Now

Ocean view corner end unit flooded with natural light in highly sought-after Palos Verdes Bay Club. Enjoy sunset views from two private, tiled decks and numerous windows and sliders in living area as well as bedrooms. Although this unit is on the first level, the building itself is significantly elevated and the corner location affords open and expansive views and lots of natural light.

This unit has the Delaware B Floor Plan. The Delaware plans are the only units in the complex with 2 view balconies as they are always end corner units facing the ocean.

Double front doors lead to a foyer and great room with living and dining areas. Remodeled kitchen and baths with high quality features. Floors are waterproof luxury vinyl planks, travertine, and tile – no carpet! (Since unit is on the first floor, HOA allows choice of flooring. Units on 2nd and 3rd floors must have carpet in all areas except entry, kitchen and baths.) Washer/dryer hookups inside unit and community laundry just down the hall. Other upgrades include electronic custom-made blinds for floor to ceiling windows in living room and custom walk-in closet (instead of wardrobe closet in original floor plan) in primary bedroom.

The unit comes with two garage spaces and two storage units. Palos Verdes Bay Club offers two oceanside pools and spas, two tennis courts, a social hall, a fitness/game room, lush, well-maintained grounds, and walking trails to the ocean and nearby Terranea.

Call 310-650-0960 for additional information or a private showing.

Gathering for the Grand Gala – Gidget’s Glamorous Beach Party

Sat, May 11, 2024
5:00 PM – 10:00 PM
Palos Verdes Golf Club
3301 Via Campesina,, Palos Verdes Estates, CA, 90274,

The 2024 Gathering for the Grand Gala will be held Saturday, May 11, 2024, at 5 PM at the Palos Verdes Golf Club located at 3301 Vía Campesina in Palos Verdes Estates.

The guest of honor is Yolanda Valle-Perry, a San Pedro native who grew up loving the Warner Grand Theatre and Cabrillo Beach. She was an early supporter and advocate for Grand Vision, garnering the community’s support to revitalize the Warner Grand Theatre and re-energize the downtown community through the arts.

The theme, “GIDGET’S Glamorous Beach Party,” reflects Yolanda’s love of the beach with a nod to the 1959 Sandra Dee film. Dress up in your best beach-inspired gala-wear, celebrate the Warner Grand’s long-awaited $15 million renovation, enjoy tiki drinks, and party to retro surfer music!

Special appearance by Kathy Kohner-Zuckerman, the real-life inspiration for the character of Gidget from the 1957 novel that inspired the movie. Meet the legend who spread the surf craze through the nation.

For more details go to: https://grandvision.org/event/gathering-for-the-grand-gala-gidgets-glamorous-beach-party/

Dylanfest 34 – Andy & Renee with Hard Rain, plus 50 or so Friends

Sat, May 25 @ 12:00PM — 8:00PM

Torino Plaza, Torrance Cultural Arts Center, 3330 Civic Center Drive, Torrance, CA 90503

Super Early Bird Tickets on sale now at https://andyandrenee.com/tickets-tips-merch. Dylanfest is an 8-hour celebration of the music of Bob Dylan. The show started with our band and a few friends doing an evening of songs by Bob Dylan, and it has grown to an 8-hour event with over 50 musicians performing over 60 Dylan songs. Our band, Hard Rain, is the “house band”, and we are joined by solo artists, full bands, and instrumentalists throughout the course of the day.

South Bay Homes – Fewer Sales, Higher Prices

In the first quarter of 2021 buyers and sellers were taking advantage of the artificially low interest rates. Sales were robust and the demand pushed prices up along with the increase in sales volume. By first quarter 2022 sales volume was waning, but sellers were still attached to the higher prices so we saw sales dropping off dramatically. The first three months of 2023 gave us even deeper cuts in the number of South Bay homes sold and brought some corresponding declines in median prices. Today, looking at the South Bay market for the first quarter of 2024, prices are still “sticky” with sellers hoping to hang onto the gains from the Covid years.

It’s not working real well. January gave sellers hope with a strong growth in sales volume and modest increases in median price. February showed returning median price increases and buyers backing off again in response. March is back to the drawing boards as buyers have balked at the price increases in the face of continuing elevated interest rates.

This is coupled with news trickling out of the Federal Reserve Board about how mortgage interest rates are probably not going to see the three rate decreases predicted at the beginning of the year. The latest announcement confirmed that if rate decreases come at all, it won’t be until late in the year and it won’t be significant.

To gain perspective on the impact to the real estate market, it must be noted that the number of South Bay homes sold during the first quarter of 2024 is nearly identical to last year, and is still 19% lower than the first quarter of 2019, the last year of normal business before the pandemic. At the same time the median price of those homes is up almost 10% over last year and is 40% higher than it was in 2019.

Somehow a 40% increase in cost within five years, with a negative demand, seems to be a violation of general economic principles. It appears the post-pandemic adjustment back to normality has digressed somewhere along the path. Of course, all this has been further impacted by the fact 2024 is a presidential election year, and simultaneously the world is in extreme turmoil both economically and physically.

Month by month performance has been unusually erratic for quite some time. So far this year the comparison of this month to the same month last year is the most stable view of the real estate market. According to that view, the number of homes sold has gradually slid into negative territory. January kicked off the year with a blanket increase in the sales volume. February flipped that showing for about half the South Bay. which slid below the sales of last February. March has furthered that negative sales volume to all areas of the South Bay.

Median prices are managing to stay above those of 2023. With sales down across the area and mortgage interest rates stubbornly increasing, that may be changing soon.

Beach: Home Sales Erratic

The Beach cities truly exemplified the erratic nature of month over month statistics during the first quarter. Compared to the prior month, sales in January were down 46%, in February up 48% and in March down 1%. Using the same metrics, monthly median prices were up 13%, down 1% and up 13%.

Looking at the same three months in a year over year method, the statistical movement is much less dramatic. Compared to the same month last year, January sales volume was up 30%, February up 33% and in a surprise drop, March was down 8%. By the same token, median prices were up 7%, up 29% and up 16%.

Disconcertingly, it’s been two years since the pandemic ended and the market is still seeing double digit movement monthly in both volume and pricing. This lack of stability results from several different influences on the real estate market. Among them the continued increase in mortgage interest rates, a corresponding relaxation of qualification requirements by lenders, a public perception of good economic conditions and a continued shortage of homes on the market.

Year to date sales volume for homes at the Beach has increased 13% while median prices have risen by 7% over 2023. Compared to 2019, sales are off by 35% with median prices 43% higher.

Harbor: Up, Then Down, Then Up

Month to month activity for the first quarter in the Harbor area has followed an equally irrational pattern to that of the Beach. January saw sales and prices drop by 13% and 4% respectively. Then February brought increases in both numbers, volume going up 8% and the median price by 6%. March came in mixed with sales volume up 16% while the median slipped by 3%. Annually, homes in the Harbor area started the year on a positive note with 9% growth in number of homes sold and an accompanying 7% growth in median price. February saw sales decline 3% with an increase in median price of 18%. Sales volume continued to fall in March, decreasing by 8%, albeit with a 4% increase in median price.

Year to date for the first quarter shows the number of homes sold declined by 2%, while the median price increased by 10%. Compared to 2019, sales are off by 16% with median prices 43% higher.

Hill: Sales and Prices Up; Sorta

After two months of negative sales volume and falling median prices, home sales on the Hill perked up in March. Volume was up 39% with 50 properties sold and median prices took a 12% jump to $1.982M. As mentioned in the past, properties on the Palos Verdes peninsula, much like those in the Beach cities, represent a smaller segment of the marketplace and often one or two outsize transactions will create a major shift in the statistics.

Of course, that “perkiness” is relative. While the number of homes sold was 39% higher than February, it was still 19% lower than March of 2023 and 25% below March of 2019, the last year prior to the upsets of the corona virus pandemic.

The 19% drop in sales was accompanied by a 14% increase in median price, a contradiction seen around the South Bay and generally across the State. The typically accepted explanation is that many home owners took advantage of the low mortgage interest rates offered during the pandemic. Those people are now unwilling to take on a new mortgage with an interest rate two to three times higher than they are currently paying. This is leaving a much smaller selection of available homes and has created an inventory shortage which encourages competitive bidding among the few buyers active in the market.

The first quarter of the year brought a 3% decline in homes sold on the Hill and an 8% increase in median price. Compared to the first three months of 2019, sales are currently off by 11% and the median is up 36%.

Inland: One Good March

The number of homes sold in the Inland area for March jumped by 33% to 125 closed escrows. Median prices increased a more modest 7% to $925K. Like the Harbor area, there is a comparatively large number homes in the Inland area and they offer a diverse range of prices. As an example, the low sale for this March was $371K while the high was $2.525M. Mathematics is a great tool for analyzing trends in real estate, but if one is planning to buy or sell in this environment, you should call a professional rather than simply applying these statistics.

Compared to the same month last year, March sales volume was down 7%, while the median price was up 11%. Year to date, the sales volume for the Inland area was unchanged, and the median price was up 8%. Similarly, comparing to 2019, sales were down 12% and prices up 40%

As discussed earlier, there’s a tendency for buyer resistance to the combination of higher prices and higher interest rates. Three months into the year, that resistance seems to be growing. Since the most recent Federal Reserve announcement, mortgage interest rates have climbed about .375% (3/8ths of a point). Looking at the statistical trend in conjunction with the increasing interest rate, we anticipate continued slippage in volume and more declines in median price throughout the South Bay.

Beach=Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach, El Segundo
Harbor=Carson, Long Beach, San Pedro, Wilmington, Harbor City
PV Hill=Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates
Inland=Torrance, Lomita, Gardena

Photo of the San Pedro coast by Marius Christensen on Unsplash

Andy & Renee

The Lighthouse (every Tuesday)

TUESDAY @ 5:30PM — 7:30PM
The Lighthouse Cafe, 30 Pier Avenue Hermosa Beach, CA 90254

The Banana Leaf

THURSDAY, MAR 21, 28 @ 6:30PM — 9:00PM
Banana Leaf & Beach Cities Social, 1408 S Pacific Coast Hwy, Redondo Beach, CA 90277

Terranea Lobby Bar

FRI, MAR 22 @ 7:00PM — 11:00PM
Terranea Lobby Bar, 100 Terranea Way, Rancho Palos Verdes, CA 90275

SongWriters ShowCase by Jodi Seigel

Tue, Mar 19 @ 7:00PM — 9:00PM
PROJECT BARLEY BREWERY
2308 Pacific Coast Hwy
Lomita, CA 90717

This is a once a month (every third Tuesday) show that is designed as a listening room for world class songwriters, many with hit songs, long touring/recording associations with music legends etc. to play their original music in an intimate setting.

NO COVER BUT DONATIONS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED AND GO TO THE SONGWRITERS.

Project Barley serves excellent Food (Gourmet Pizza, wings, sandwiches, salads), wine, and award winning beer. Food served till 8:30pm. No reservations so arrive early to get a table. This month we are proud to present: JOEY DELGADO, DEB RYDER, RICHARD STEKOL AND JODI SIEGEL

JODI SIEGEL

Jodi Siegel, originally from Chicago, IL, is a singer, songwriter and guitarist. Over the years Jodi has opened for and or shared the stage with many respected musicians including: Albert King, Robben Ford, Robert Cray, J.D. Souther, David Lindley, Fred Tacket and Paul Barrere (Little Feat) and countless others. Her songs have been recorded by Maria Muldaur, Marcia Ball, Tommy Ridgley and Teresa James.

JOEY DELGADO

Singer, guitarist, producer, songwriter, Joey Delgado has been a member of one of the best and most popular East Los Angeles based blues/rock, Americana, Latin soul bands for 50 years, The Delgado Brothers! Out of the 5 Delgado Brothers studio albums, Joey Delgado has produced all but one; and all the over 50 original songs were composed by Joey D and his band of brothers.

DEB RYDER

Born in Chicago Illinois, she began singing at the age of five joining her Dad, crooner Al Swanson on stage at several popular venues and churches in the area. Debs musical career began in her early teens when her mother moved the family to California and along with her stepfather opened the renowned Rock and Blues club the Topanga Corral. There, she opened for and performed with such legends as Etta James, Big Joe Turner, Taj Mahal and Canned Heat, all regulars at the club. These artists mentored Ryder, and it was then that her vision of herself as a singer, songwriter and performer began to take shape.

RICHARD STEKOL

Richard is a triple threat. He plays guitar like nobody else, any style, he sings soulfully and with purpose and he writes incredibly original songs that either break your heart or knock you over the head with their truth. He’s a songwriter like no other and those that know of his work are forever changed. While some know Richard as one of the founding members of Southern California’s Honk Band (they had three records released on a major label and toured extensively opening for people like The Beach Boys, Kenny Loggins and Michael McDonald), he was also a member of the super group The Funky Kings (featuring Jack Tempchin, Jules Shear, Richard Stekol, Greg Leisz). He released many solo records over the years and has had songs covered by Michael McDonald, the late great Mike Finnigan, Ian Mathews, Michael Nesmith, Kenny Loggins, Julie Christensen, Rick Nelson, Amy Holland and more. He is also a producer of many independent recordings and has played guitar as a session player. He is a true original in a sea of copycats.

Next Up at the Grand Annex

Reading of The People with the Trees in Their Chest

Fri, Mar 22, 2024
8:00 PM
Doors 7:00 PM
Tickets

A Staged Reading of The People with The Trees in Their Chest by Shawn Christopher Lovell Nabors. Produced by Grand Vision Foundation.

Nabor’s new and original play follows an African American family from Brooklyn, NY as they struggle to break the curse of poor health that has marked their family for generations.

The audience will be invited to give constructive feedback after the performance.

Kimberly Ford

Kimberly Ford

Kimberly Ford

DREAMLAND with Kimberly Ford
The Music of Joni Mitchell
Saturday, March 23 / 8 PM
(🍷Wine Tasting 7 PM)

An homage to one of the most iconic Woodstock musicians. Hear Help Me, Both Sides Now, River, and more.

Jack of Hearts w/ Scarlet Rivera
The Music of Bob Dylan

Fri, Apr 05, 2024
8:00 PM
Doors 7:00 PM

For over five decades, Bob Dylan has remained one of the most important figures in American music. The Jack of Hearts Band seeks to authentically replicate the sound of Dylan – from the early ‘60s folk scene to the Blonde on Blonde album, the Woodstock retreat to masterpieces such as Blood on the Tracks and beyond.

Returning to the Annex with violinist, Scarlet Rivera, best known for working with Bob Dylan on his 1976 album Desire and as part of the Rolling Thunder Revue.

Mortgage Interest Rates Still Climbing

In a normal year, the interest rate for a conventional mortgage loan would be lower than the rate quoted for a “high balance” loan, which would be slightly lower than a “jumbo” mortgage. (Here in Los Angeles jumbo is more common than not.) The theory behind the differing rates is one of risk management. Lenders generally consider larger loans to be more risky, thus jumbo costs more.

Guess what! It’s not a normal year. It’s a Presidential Election Year. In addition to the political strife, our nation is closely involved in a couple of economy-disrupting wars in other parts of the globe.

The end result is jumbo loans with fixed interest rates that are as low or lower than conventional loans. Despite headlines touting strength in the economy, interest rates have increased by approximately .5% since the first of the year. The most recent announcements from the Federal Reserve System are hinting that anticipated rate reductions aren’t happening at all in the first half of 2024, and the number of potential reductions is expected to be less than previously expected.

Last year saw median prices in the South Bay falling below 2022 prices through July. In August of last year price declines began to abate. By December of 2023 prices had started to stabilize. The new year continued that trend with only one negative median price result in January. Improving on that, February showed solid growth in prices across the South Bay. The real estate market seems to be reacting to what is touted as an improving economy.

However, compared to last February, sales volume this February was a mixed bag with overall positive growth of 2% despite declines of 3% in the Harbor area and 14% on the Hill. These weaker sales figures follow a strong growth in the number of homes sold in January versus the same month in 2023.

Recent month to month history has shown that a decline in sales volume is typically followed by a decline in median price. This “tit for tat” resonance indicates a market where buyers are at the edge of their ability to buy and sellers are feeling the resistance. Indeed, following the upward movement of mortgage interest rate activity for the first two months of the year leads to the conclusion sales volume will drop, followed by more substantial price decreases in coming months.

Beach: Sales and Prices SeeSaw

On a month to month basis, the Beach area has seen serious ups and downs in the number of homes sold and in the median sales price. January started with a massive 46% drop in sales from December, then February showed up with a 48% increase in sales volume. By way of contrast, Palos Verdes sales were down 16% and down 14% for the same months. The median price for Beach homes slipped 1% in February versus a 13% increase in January.

February sales volume versus February of 2023 was also steeply higher at 33%, the largest increase of the South Bay areas. At $1.175M the median price was up 29% over the same month last year. This is a somewhat surprising median price increase in light of other annual increases around the South Bay falling in the range of 5-18%.

Looking at year to date for the first two months of 2024, the Beach area had positive sales volume of 32% with a median price increase of 17%.

Harbor: More Up and Down

Responding to the volatility of the economy, the Harbor area flipped from negative numbers in January to positive in February. The number of homes sold was up by 8% over the prior month, while the median price of those homes increased 6%. The largest of the South Bay areas, the Harbor area typically has less variability in both sales and prices than the other areas.

Annual figures, looking at change from one year to the next in the same month, is usually a predictor of long term direction. February home sales in the Harbor area seem to be close to the bottom of market. Volume dropped by 3% from 2023, the smallest annual decline since the end of the pandemic.

At the same time, the median price rose 18% above that of February 2023. It should be noted that the median price in the Harbor last February was exceptionally low at $675K. In contrast, the $795K for this year appears to be on the high side and should be expected to moderate as the year goes on.

Year to date, the number of homes sold has increased by 2% over 2023. The median price has gone up 12%.

Hill: Numbers Continue to Fall

Real estate on the Palos Verdes Peninsula was off more this month than last. Month to month sales volume dropped by 14%. Median price, which was flat last month, has fallen by 1% this month. This kind of back and forth jockeying in price and volume looks jerky in the month to month statistics.

When viewed against the backdrop of annual data one can more readily see the direction. Annually, residential sales dropped by 14%, roughly the average of the past few months. While sales volume was dropping, the annual median price rose a surprising 10%.

Combining January and February for year over year numbers shows the number of homes sold increasing by 11% and the median price increasing by 9%

Inland: A Mixed Bag for Sales and Prices

Like the Beach cities, the Inland area enjoyed a huge surge in the number of homes sold for February, after suffering a large drop in sales January. Volume was up by 40% for the month. Median price dropped 4% after an 11% jump last month. So far this year the market has been very unpredictable.

As mentioned early, the “same month, last year” perspective is starting to level out. Residential sales volume for February of 2024 increased by 6% compared to 2023. The median price was up 5% over for the same period. The annual percentage of change seems almost stable by comparison the the monthly.

Year to date, Inland sales have increased 7% while the median price has declined by 1%. So far in 2024, only the Inland median price has declined from the first two months of last year.

Beach=Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach, El Segundo

Harbor=Carson, Long Beach, San Pedro, Wilmington, Harbor City

PV Hill=Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates

Inland=Torrance, Lomita, Gardena

Photo by Matt Burt on Unsplash

January Home Sales Down, Prices Up

Across the Los Angeles South Bay the number of homes sold in January was down compared to December—way down. For the same time period median prices are mixed with most sales either flat or down.

Looking at sales volume in January versus January of last year, shows big increases in activity. However, that serves more to show how slow the real estate market was at the beginning of 2023, than how good it is today. Median prices were likewise up for most areas when compared to the same month last year.

From a historical perspective, looking back at 2019, still the most recent “normal” business year for real estate, we see sales volume overall remains 21% below that benchmark. Median prices, which shot up during the pandemic have stubbornly stayed up. As of January, median prices range from 25-30% above the 2% inflation factor the Federal Reserve targets.

The combination of inflated prices and mortgage interest rates testing the 7% level has created a stagnant market place. Typically a presidential election year would bring rosy news about a growing economy and low interest rates. At this point there’s only one month of data, not enough to make any forecasts, but 2024 is off to a slow start.

Beach: Sales Off 46%

Month to month sales volume in the Beach cities collapsed by 46% in January. After back to back increases in the number of homes sold for November and December, the huge drop was unexpected. Juxtaposed against the 13% increase in median price, it demonstrates the current market dynamic.

The only actual buyers are people who have no choice but to move, despite the low inventory and high interest rates. At the same time, most sellers are stalling because they don’t want to be sitting on the market for weeks. And, because most sellers are also buyers, they’re waiting for a better market with more homes available and lower interest rates for their replacement purchase. As a result, the number of available homes listed on the MLS is further depressed.

This has brought about a rare phenomenon, the “off-market” sale. Both buyers and sellers are actively looking for deals that can be consummated without the competitive environment of the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Buyers love the fact there are no bidding wars. Sellers are glad to sell at asking price without endless open houses and dozens of showings. The properties usually end up on the MLS as history, but not as competition. How long this trend will last depends on the economy over the next few months.

The market at the Beach has clearly improved since last year. Sales from January of 2024 have climbed 30% compared to January of 2023. At the same time, median price has moved up 7%. Of course, as mentioned earlier, last January was far from a good market in real estate.

Given the turmoil of recent years, one is compelled to look back at 2019, before the pandemic with it’s rock-bottom interest rates and sky-rocketing prices. Using that metric, January sales this year fell 34% below January of 2019. Median price this January was 43% higher than it was in January of 2019. Clearly “normal” is still a long way off.

Harbor: Sales Off 13%

Month to month statistics from the Harbor area demonstrate a truism. Pointing the way toward stability in the market, many of January’s home sales came with a reduced price. The median price dropped 4%, rather than increasing as it did in the Beach cities. Those price reductions appealed to buyers and the number of transactions increased considerably. Correspondingly, the sales volume only dropped 13% as opposed to a 46% drop at the Beach.

Harbor area sales for January 2024 ended with 9% more transactions than the same month lin 2023 in an unsurprising response to the market collapse of last winter. Also on the positive side, median prices for Harbor area homes increased by 7%.

Pre-pandemic residential sales for January 2024 was mixed in comparison to January of 2019. Sales volume was off, with 16% fewer homes sold in 2024. At the same time, median prices were up 44%.

Hill: Sales Off 16%

November and December of last year looked like a bad thing was turning good, and then January 2024 came along. Home sales on the Hill suffered less than at the Beach or Inland, but a 16% drop in sales volume in an already moribund market hurt. Median prices on the Hill hit that “sweet spot” with no change up or down.

Compared to January of 2023 the number of home sales on the Hill went stratospheric climbing 50% for the month. Of course, having read this far you know last winter was a low spot in the market. Combine that with the comparatively small number of sales on the Palos Verdes Peninsula and it’s easy to have outsize percentages. While sales volume was up 50%, median prices climbed a more modest 8%.

January 2024 versus January 2019 in home sales on the Hill showed an solid improvement. The number of homes sold increased by 27%, in contrast to falling sales in the Harbor and Beach areas. With the number of home sales up, a 37% increase in the median price is a welcome addition.

Inland: Sales Off 36%

Home sales in the Inland area closely followed those at the Beach in January. Similarly, the month ended with a calamitous 36% drop in the number of homes sold—down to 67 homes from over 100 in both November and December. Likewise, the median price came in with an 11% increase, slightly less than at the Beach. This shows the effect of “sticky prices” where a lot of sales don’t happen because the sellers are resistant to lower offers and buyers are balking at higher prices.

On a year over year basis, January 2024 showed 8% growth in the number of sales compared to last January. Median prices continued following the long downward slide of 2023 and dropped another 6%.

Comparing the Inland sales to 2019, the most recent stable year, the number of homes sold has dropped by 39% leaving a lot of room for recovery. The median price has climbed 40% over that five years, roughly 27% greater than the “ideal inflation” sought by the Federal Reserve.

Beach=Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach, El Segundo

Harbor=Carson, Long Beach, San Pedro, Wilmington, Harbor City

PV Hill=Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates

Inland=Torrance, Lomita, Gardena

Photo by T Narr on Unsplash

Luxury RPV Condo – New on the Market

Ocean view corner end unit flooded with natural light in highly sought-after Palos Verdes Bay Club. Enjoy sunrise and sunset views from two private, tiled decks and floor to ceiling windows in living area as well as bedrooms. Although this unit is on the first level, the building itself is significantly elevated and the corner location affords open and expansive views. This unit has the Delaware B Floor Plan (See Listing Supplement). The Delaware plans are the only units in the complex with 2 view balconies as they are always end corner units facing the ocean. Double front doors lead to a foyer and great room with living and dining areas. Remodeled kitchen and baths with high quality features. Floors are waterproof wood-look vinyl, travertine, and tile. Washer/dryer hookups inside unit (washer/dryer not included) and community laundry just down the hall. Other upgrades include electronic custom-made blinds for floor to ceiling windows in living room and custom walk-in closet (instead of wardrobe closet in original floor plan) in primary bedroom. The unit comes with two subterranean parking spaces and two storage units. Recent improvements for this building include new roof and updated hallways with new carpet, wallpaper, and paint. Palos Verdes Bay Club offers two oceanside pools and spas, two tennis courts, other sport courts, a social hall, a fitness/game room, beautiful grounds, and walking trails to the ocean and nearby Terranea.

For additional photos see https://moeryphotography.com/clients/AClark/32735SeagateDr107

Coming Up at the Grand Annex

Caro Pierotto
Pre-concert Wine Tasting🍷

Friday, March 15, 2024
8:00 PM
$25-$40 a person, wine tasting $16 or free for members

From the moment Grammy-nominated Caro Pierotto strikes her first note, her captivating warm voice energizes the room. Accompanied by her all-star band, you’ll hear covers and originals in Portuguese, Spanish, and English featuring elements of samba, reggae and soulful pop.

“The expressiveness and technical mastery in Caro Pierotto’s voice underscores Brazil’s tradition of great female singers – from Sylvia Telles to Gal Costa.”- Ernesto Lechner/Latin Alternative for NPR

Pierotto’s music has found audiences all over the globe. Her 2023 album, ‘Sambalismo’, has been cited as one of the Brazilian Music Albums of the year.

John Kraus & The Goers
St. Patrick’s Day Show

Saturday, March 16, 2024
8:15 PM
$25-$40 a person

Captain John and the band deliver vintage sea shanties and nautical tunes with Celtic-punk and pirate-rock swagger.

Kraus leads this merry crew of powerhouse musicians after years spent as a sea captain and growing up in a musical household. His pioneering band perfectly combines his love for music, the sea, and the legacy of seafaring storytelling. And, just so we’re all clear, John Kraus really is a captain – on LA Maritime Institute’s stunning Tall Ships!
The Goers are: Tim Weed on violin, David Dutton on the drums and jazz legend Bob Aul on fiddle and tuba. Paul Givant of Rose’s Pawn Shop shows up frequently to play guitar and banjo.

Roots & Rambles Workshop: Sea Shanty Stories & Sing-Along

Roots & Rambles is a concert workshop series featuring musicians dedicated to the preservation, artistry, and evolution of folk and traditional music in the United States. One hour before the concert. Please RSVP if you plan on participating. Concert tickets are required to participate.

Roots & Rambles is made possible by a grant from the National Endowment for the Arts.

Andy & Renee and Hard Rain

Andy & Renee at The Lighthouse

TUESDAYS @ 5:30PM — 7:30PM
The Lighthouse Cafe,
30 Pier Avenue Hermosa Beach, CA 90254
310 376-983

Andy & Renee-Banana Leaf

THU, FEB 22 & 29 @ 6:30PM — 9:00PM
Banana Leaf & Beach Cities Social,
1408 S Pacific Coast Hwy, Redondo Beach, CA 90277

DYLANFEST 34

Saturday, May 25th! Tickets on sale soon!
Torrance Cultural Arts Center

One of the largest Bob Dylan festivals in the world is being held for the 34 year. Organized by Andy Hill and Renee Safier, this all day event exclusively presents music created by Dylan and performed by 50-60 artists, some international and all well known here in LA.

Andy & Renee & Hard Rain at Wilson Park

SAT, JUN 29 @ TIME TBA
Wilson Park,
2200 Crenshaw Blvd.,
Torrance, CA 90501

Andy & Renee & Hard Rain-Songs From Laurel Canyon

SUN, JUN 30 @ 8:00PM
The Grand Annex,
434 W. 6th St.,
San Pedro, CA 90731

SoCal favorites play originals and Songs from Laurel Canyon. Hear classic rock hits of the late ’60s and ’70s from Buffalo Springfield, Carole King, James Taylor, Linda Ronstadt, CSNY, plus a set of the band’s award-winning original songs culled from their 17 CDs. Get tickets at https://grandvision.org/event/andy-renee-hard-rain-songs-from-laurel-canyon/

Pro Songwriters’ Showcase with Jodi Siegel

Tue, Feb 20 @ 7:00PM — 9:00PM

PROJECT BARLEY BREWERY, 2308 Pacific Coast Hwy, , Lomita, CA 90717

This is a once a month (every third Tuesday) show that is designed as a listening room for world class songwriters, many with hit songs, long touring/recording associations with music legends ETC… to play their original music in an intimate setting. NO COVER BUT DONATIONS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURED AND GO TO THE SONGWRITERS. Project Barley serves excellent Food (Gourmet Pizza, wings, sandwiches, salads), wine, and award winning beer. Food served till 8:30pm. No reservations so arrive early to get a table. This month we are proud to present: TED RUSSELL KAMP, BLISS BOWEN, JASON FEDDY AND JODI SIEGEL

TED RUSSELL KAMP is an LA-based singer/songwriter, producer and Grammy winning bass player. He just released a new record called California Son that is already riding up the charts and receiving excellent reviews!

Ted writes, records and travels the world performing his own country / roots / Americana music from his eleven critically-acclaimed albums. Ted also plays live, records sessions, and collaborates on songs with A-list songwriters and musicians in L.A., Nashville, Austin and around the world. Ted often works out of his home studio — The Den — and has produced several well-received albums for fellow artists there. Ted has also had the honor of being a friend, collaborator and member of Shooter Jennings’ band for most of the last 15 years. Ted also played on the 2020 Grammy winning Country Album of the Year, Tanya Tucker’s While I’m Living.

BLISS BOWEN

Bliss Bowen is a singer-songwriter and writer who spent most of her childhood inhaling the salt air of the Atlantic Ocean and the folklore of the Pine Barrens of South Jersey (aka Springsteen country). She then rooted herself in the foothills of Sierra Madre in Southern California, where she finds abundant inspiration for her soulful Americana songs and stories. Bliss is currently preparing for the late spring release of her album Ghost Trees, which she has been recording with a crew of exceptional musician pals from L.A.’s Americana-roots community. Whether performing as Bliss Bowen & Friends with her rocking band or in duo and trio configurations for more intimate performances, she connects with audiences honestly via her powerful, heartfelt singing and storytelling and evocative roots music. reverbnation.com/blissbowen, blissbowen.bandcamp.com, open.spotify.com/artist/3q3x9BbcTh50q4v6tb6Ozh

JASON FEDDY

Jason is Laguna Beach CA Arts Alliance “Artist of The Year” 2019/20. He has worked as a singer/songwriter and guitarist ever since his school days, pausing only for 5 years as a morning jock on KX93.5, Laguna Beach, Ca’s local radio station. He is a central figure in the music scene of Laguna Beach, curating and producing the city’s numerous outdoor music series. His album of songs from the plays of Shakespeare and the show, “Shakespeare’s Fool” are critically acclaimed.

JODI SIEGEL

Jodi Siegel, originally from Chicago, IL, is a singer, songwriter and guitarist. Over the years Jodi has opened for and or shared the stage with many respected musicians including: Albert King, Robben Ford, Robert Cray, J.D. Souther, David Lindley, Fred Tacket and Paul Barrere (Little Feat) and countless others. Her songs have been recorded by Maria Muldaur, Marcia Ball, Tommy Ridgley and Teresa James.

2023 South Bay Real Estate: Fail

By every measure South Bay real estate failed last year. The volume was down from the prior year in every residential area, the median price fell from 2022 heights everywhere, and the double whammy of crashing sales and falling prices brought the total revenue down from 2022. Judging from early reports the same is true across most of the state.

Part of the story doesn’t read so poorly though. As we look back across the year, the second of half of 2023 was far better than the first half of the year. This in two respects: first, the month-over-month statistics for sales volume have improved. The median price is still falling, but that’s to be expected if we’re going to see a sales volume increase concurrent with continued high interest rates. The market is going to demand that some of the “overly enthusiastic” price increases come back down.

Second, the year-over-year decline in median price is slowing—not reversing—slowing. Roughly speaking, the number of homes sold for less than 2022 prices improved from 83% in the first half of the year to 45% in the second half of 2023. That signifies an approaching balance in the market. Buyers are still holding back, but some sellers are coming forth to meet them.

2024 South Bay Real Estate: Better Days Ahead

We expect to see continued slippage in the median price, accompanied by increased sales volume. The Los Angeles South Bay is somewhat insulated from the vagaries of national and international events, but 2024 is facing an active political climate. The continuing wars around the planet would be enough to rattle economic markets here. This year sellers and buyers also have to factor in a contentious national election.

While the Federal Reserve System is officially apolitical, history has shown a tendency for improved economic conditions during election years. The final quarter of 2023 saw a softening of the wild swings in home sales volume and pricing. With less than 10 months until the presidential elections we anticipate continued easing of interest rates and increased sales activity. Median prices have fallen by about 2% across the South Bay in 2023 and probably won’t drop a lot more in 2024.

Sales volume fell by 15% across the South Bay in 2023. Nearly all of that drop was in the first half of the year. The new year is expected to be positive with growth in sales across the board.

Beach: Strong Sales On Weak Prices

Comparing December to November, the number of homes sold at the Beach was up 13%. That increase in sales is on top of a 9% increase in November, a dramatic turnaround from the 27% drop in October. On the other hand, the month to month median price fell 5% in December.

December of 2023 was similarly mixed when compared to December of 2022. Year over year saw sales volume increase a staggering 39%. Looking back shows December of last year as the absolute slowest month of the year for home sales at the Beach. The median price plummeting by 10% certainly helped generate those December 2023 sales.

Year to date numbers, comparing all 12 months, showed the number of home sales off by 11%. At the same time the median price was down 4% for the year. Much of the annual decline in sales volume occurred in the first half of 2023, when monthly drops of 25%-35% put the brakes on prices. Beach area median prices have taken steep falls since February 2023. It may take a couple more months before the first stimulating news on the interest rate front, but it would appear we’re looking at the “bottom of the market” now. Regardless of whether you’re a buyer or a seller, this is time to reassess your options.

Harbor: Positive Across the Board

December versus November of 2023 saw sales volume go up 1%. During that time the median price went up 2%. Harbor area homes sales dropped precipitously through the third quarter when they suddenly found strength and were positve in the single digits for the last quarter. Monthly declines in median price have been the order until the final quarter when median prices appear to have leveled out.

Looking from the annual perspective, home sales in December 2023 were up 3% over the last month of 2022. Using the same comparison, median prices were up 13%. This suggests the Harbor area may already be seeing improved stability.

Summarizing 2022 versus 2023 for the Harbor area, overall home sales volume dropped 17% for the year. Looking from a longer term perspective, sales have fallen 26% from the ‘pre-Covid benchmark year’ of 2019. From 2022 to 2023 the median price fell 2%. Again over the longer term, median prices in the Harbor area are up 31% over 2019.

Hill: Median Price Down – Sales Up

December home sales increased on the Hill by 9% over November levels. For the same mnthly period, median prices were down 9%. This pattern is expected to shift over the first quarter of 2024 as prices stabilize and interest rates decline to allow more potential purchasers to enter the market.

Compared to December of 2022, December 2023 came in with sales of 22% more homes and a median price increase of 5%. A solid year over year growth for the Hill.

Taking a step back and looking at the full year, sales volume fell 17% from 2022. At the same time, median price fell only 1%.

Inland: Sales and Prices Still Sliding

The last month of the year brought no relief for the Inland area. The number of homes sold continued to decline with sales down 2% compared to November. The median price was down for the second month, this time 5% for the month.

Looking at the same month last year, gives year over year sales volume down 2%,and a median price that’s down 2%. The final quarter of the year has been a rough adjustment period for the Inland area.

In the broader year over year view, the Inland area again fell, with sales volume down 11%. Median price was flat for the period with a tendency toward negative. It’s a transitional period which should resolve into a firmer picture by the spring of the year.

Beach=Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach, El Segundo
Harbor=Carson, Long Beach, San Pedro, Wilmington, Harbor City
PV Hill=Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates
Inland=Torrance, Lomita, Gardena

Photo by frank mckenna on Unsplash